Senate The (Fourth?) Armenian-Azerbaijan War

We already had two, you're forgetting India/China

 

Jeez, just what we need...

 

dont forget the attempts to spark conflict with Russia and botching the Afghan peace talks

 

There's a large Armenian community in Glendale near where I live. When the last flare up happened a few years ago I heard of some dudes going to fight in militias or something. Armenians are very proud of their heritage, they've been through a lot.

 

Jesus... My relationship with 2020 so far:

Don't mention that, otherwise it will happen, especially since we haven't seen military skirmishes between Russia and America (and we don't wish to)!

 

what's interesting here is who is on who's side. Russia backs Armenia, while the US backs Azerbaijan.

 

Read something earlier on Facebook from a cousin of mine from my mother's side (i.e.: Armenian; Dad's side is Jewish) of the family, aside from reading this thread today. Going to be, obviously, quite the topic of conversation among the family. Donations will occur, I'd imagine, but can't see anyone going over there to do something, etc.

 

Yes, American Armenians have been trying for decades to get the U.S. on their side, but to no avail because Turkey is a NATO member and has more influence. The fact that it took so long for the U.S. to even acknowledge the genocide is ridiculous.

 

One of my favorite journalists is an Armenian American. The way the Armenians have been treated throughout that genocide and beyond is horrible. When cultures like that in other continents are ignored due to a lack of resources, it's tragic and anti-humanitarian. Feeding the hungry ought to be popular.

 

In a somewhat different context from 2016, as a very active Turkey is throwing threats around from behind Armenia's back...

 

This would appear to be a dangerous escalation, shelling a populated city in broad daylight. If it's not a war crime, it should be.

 

Russia is literally patrolling like someone sweeping up something they caused to break doing a prank or something. This is why you dont give anti-missile systems to both sides of a conflict. I know america does it, but ask yourself when the hell that has ever worked out well?

What do ya think the scale of sectarian violence will be over this? or more specifically how likely is Russia having to step in to prevent a takeover in Armenia and establishment of some junta or the like

 

Losing a war isn't easy on the soul of a nation. It's not something America has really experienced (American governments always spin things like Vietnam as a victory somehow). I'd hate to see what people here would be calling for if, say, we had to give up Alaska to China in a peace deal after being militarily defeated.

Armenia didn't have a chance without Russian help, and their alliance stated that Russia would only intervene if Armenian land was invaded. Since N-K is considered Azeri according to international law, Russia was never going to intervene. Meanwhile Azerbaijan had Turkey and Israel . Expect Armenia's next government to be right wing and irredentist.

 

Protesters have dragged the speaker of the National Assembly in Yerevan and beaten him severely.

You can't see much but I'm putting it in spoiler tags

Spoiler

 

Whelp, Glendale's going to be mad.


And I think we have an example of Americans dealing with losing a war; the South still won't shut up about it.

 

I've been seeing lots of Armenian flags on cars for the past two months, the diaspora in LA will not take this easy. They believe that Armenia's existence as a nation is very precarious, and are worried Turkey will purge them again. I don't know how ethnically homogeneous the current borders are right now but hopefully the violence winds down.

Also, I haven't been following the news about the conflict very closely, what exactly forced the settlement?

 

It became impossible logistically for Armenia to keep control over the region's capital after roads were cut off. The ceasefire "on current positions" basically forces Armenia to withdraw. There was nothing more for Armenia to hope for against Azeri forces backed by Turkey.

So basically, what forced peace is Azerbaijan won decisively and Russia doesn't want an ongoing war on its border.

 

This could be Biden's first foreign policy crisis if there is ethnic violence in the disputed territories

 

If Russia really wants quiet on its borders, why didn't they do something decades ago to broker a lasting peace, rather than kicking the can down the road?

 

Russia doesn't own Armenia or Azerbaijan anymore; they can't stop everything, and can't just tell Armenia and Azerbaijan who has the right to claim what region (in very rough approximation: the borders say Azerbaijan, the ethnic majority says Armenian). It is, however, a lot easier to let a battle actually play out and then tell the party they would back if the conflict went inside their own borders (Armenia) they have to accept that they lost. Putting conditions on their support gives Russia leverage over Armenia it didn't have when the latter still had hope to defeat Azerbaijan.

Also, widening the scope a bit, after the conflict played out in the contested region, Armenia refusing to bow down and deciding to continue the fight risks dangerous escalation. If the war doesn't stop, operations can move to Armenia proper, attacked by Azerbaijan (and Turkey behind it); Russia has given Armenia a guarantee there. Honoring it pits Russia against a member of NATO it's been working to subvert, and has diligently avoided fighting head on in Syria.

 

Read a rather horrifying report tonight in Le Figaro. Apparently (I haven't dug for sources), a full quarter of the young men aged 18-20 who fought for Armenia in this recent war lost their lives. That's a WW1-scale bleed that will have long term consequences. Also, apparently, white phosphorus bombs (which, among other long-term consequences, can cause infertility) and metal dust bombs (which can cause gangrene weeks after a wound is closed) were used against civilians.

If this is what happened, it looks ugly, ugly, ugly...

 

Are we involved enough for that to be a crisis for a US president? How much we got invested in oil there?