Discussion The Mandalorian and Grogu Box Office Thread - Releasing May 22, 2026

Every Star Wars movie that has been released with no movies preceding it has done historic, astronomical things at the box office. Does that mean the next SW film will bravely fly to an the all-time box office record, winning the dog fight against Avengers, and sending it plummeting out of the sky in a smoke-filled ball?

Well... that might be getting a little carried away. However, it is important for the Star Wars to get back on track at the box office, and my sense at this early stage is that it will do well with this movie.

How will the release of multiple Star Wars streaming shows by that point affect the box office? That will be a new circumstance.

The bets start here:
1.3 Billion worldwide.
650 Million domestic

 

Yes, $100, 000, 000, 000, 000.00 looks to be accurate as the box office.

That's only one hundred times as much as the stimulus package.

That should be accurate as long as Star Wars becomes huge in China- I mean so huge that everyone in China goes and sees it 50,000 times.

 

A bit early for this, don't you think?

Anyway, at this stage I wouldn't expect huge numbers. When Star Wars returned before, it had very long breaks of 16 and 10 years (not counting the SE, which boosted interest), and it came back with known and beloved characters and a storyline that connected to what came before. This time there is a much shorter break - which will also be filled by a ton of tv-shows - and the movie is neither part of the main saga nor likely to include any of the most popular characters.

If the tv-shows happen to be very popular for the most part, and the trailers hint at a spectacle with amazing cinematography, plus maybe the odd cameo or inclusion of a known character or two (e.g. Wedge, or someone like him), I think the movie could do really well. Definately better than Solo. Though unless there are some drastic changes on how much money you can make in theaters, I wouldn't expect it to match Rogue One.

Completely useless prediction (pretending that theater-going returns ot normal levels): 800-900m worldwide if there is a lot of hype, 600m if there isn't.

 

It could go either way. Expecting every Star Wars Movie to gross over a $1,000,000,000 is a bit of a stretch

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For live action, I think 1 billion WW will be an expectation they hope to keep up, especially with movies spaced out the way they are in time. Not likely Disney will be happy with less than that unless they are making lower budget movies. If they thought it would make less than that, they would have put it on Disney +. And since SW doesn't kill it in Asia, a lot of that has to come from big sales in the Western market.

Unless the new SW anime kills it in Asia, and makes SW huge, resulting in big box office in the movies. But I wouldn't bet the farm on that happening......

 

I'd be surprised if it doesn't make at least a thousand dollars during its opening weekend.

 

Impossible to see if the public will go back to embracing movie theaters, especially with how much is being invested in streaming services.

A stand-a-lone also won't get as much attention as a climatic event from the TV series.

 

I think it's way too early to speculate on how the movie is going to do, because we don't know what the landscape is going to look like for theatrical distribution. The movie could end up grossing #500 million worldwide and be viewed as an overwhelming success. I don't think we'll have any idea of how it could perform until we start looking at movies that are released, at the earliest, towards the end of 2021.

 

Since it requires no proof, it's never too early to speculate.

I agree we don't know how many theaters will still be open, with the obvious effect it would have on box office. This could still be strongly affecting things by the time December of 2023 roles around, but my suspicion is that things like movies will be closer to normal by then- provided the vaccine roll out goes as planned and we are back to standard business and economic functions by this summer (meaning we aren't locked down and having businesses closed and hospitals full). If there are hiccups in that and the economy spins out further, who knows.

There will be interesting differences between the box office discussion for this movies compared to past SW movies. New factors are in play like the transition to streaming and closed theaters that were never in play before the virus. The affect those have on box office going forward remain to be seen.

I'm sticking with my predictions for now.

 

It will be the highest grossed Star Wars movie of all time.

 

They ssy that about every Star Wars movie..

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As Oissan said above, I don't quite expect it to reach the level of Rogue One, but I'd be surprised if it wasn't still a box office success. I have a very good feeling about this.

 

lets looks at all the factors to try and calculate an approx. box office:

1. It's a spin off not EP10
2. It will be 4 years since the last Star Wars movie
3. Patty Jenkins is a great director
4. Big epic X-Wing space battles
5. Depends on the timeline to what characters we know will be included as fan service
6. Make it as good as if not better than the Mandalorian
7. Don't stuff it up with any controversy eg ...budget blow outs or behind the scenes difficulties

Factoring in all that RS will probably do around $900 million ww ( $450 mill domestic ) - I can't see it getting $1 billion unless it gets 97% on RT......

 

There will be a (Home) Box Office.

I think this is the big question at this point. How many ST or SW characters from other places will there be? How many from the upcoming saga/movies? Where are they going to position this movie between the old movies and new?

 

Looks like WW84 has doubled what they thought at the box office for the weekend, with 39 million domestic and 85 worldwide; a pandemic record.

WW to the rescue in saving theaters?
https://www.cnet.com/news/wonder-woman-1984-may-have-saved-movie-theaters-too/

 

If that's not tied into the existing SW universe well, no matter if good or bad, this one can easily bomb.
On the other hand, no one can say how people will deal with cinemas after COVID is gone. Will they stick to streaming services or will they storm the theaters for any movie.

 

Totally agree here. Its clear to me that TV is probably the best medium with which to release SW content. You're not constrained to 2 hours and/or dont have to plan oiut a trilogy. You have many of the same "toys" to play with as in special effects and such. You can really flesh things out with TV. You arent dependent on pandemic crap being under control. And on and on. I also believe that content coming from Filoni/Favreau/Lucas will be WAY better than anything with Kennedys hands in it. Let those guys run the show. Jenkins did a great job with WW but WW84 was a huge let down and while its not all her fault I dont think shes the right choice for Star Wars.

 

if it, or any other blockbuster film helps to keep open a couple of the small theaters I like to go to, I will consider it a success

 

The medium has nothing to do with the quality. Nor does the time. Actual screen time for each season of The Mandalorian is very likely shorter than screen time of the ST. The runtimes always listed include recaps, title screens and credits.And planning is needed regardless - whether TV series or trilogy. All those were excuses for the failure of the ST.

Filoni/Favreau/Lucas get SW like the fans generally do. KK and the directors she hired didn't. That much is clear.

Can't call it on Jenkins. I don't think having a single bad movie by anyone should disqualify them, nor should a single good movie get them the job. Question is who she is working with. If she's working with Favreau and Filoni - then I'm good with it.

 

Now this is gettting truly hilarious...

Apart from the utter bogus view of "person X gets Star Wars because I like what they have done", which lacks all sorts of logic and didn't make any sense the first few hundred times you posted it, it's also rather weird to act as if Lucas and the fanbase were always in agreement. He got lambasted for years from people who acted like you do towards Kennedy, Johnson, etc. for "not getting Star Wars anymore" and all other sorts of nonsense. If "fans generally do get Star Wars" and so does George Lucas, yet a sizeable part of the fandom was vehemently opposed to his work on the prequels, how is that supposed to fit together? Two contradicting views cannot be true at the same time. It's like as if you are ignoring reality.

People don't "get" Star Wars just because their opinions on some matters happen to align with yours. Just like they don't not get Star Wars simply because their ideas and opinions don't align with your views. It's always the same, you act as if anything that doesn't fit to your views is coming from not understanding Star Wars, which amounts to you insulting all those people who like the things you don't, be it longtime Star Wars fans or people who spend ages developing Star Wars content. It's pathetic really.

It's also kind of weird how "one bad movie shouldn't disqualify anyone", yet you have spend the last 3 years doing absolutely nothing beyond throwing the most vile nonsense at Rian Johnson and Kathleen Kennedy, including plenty of lies. That you don't even recognize your own hypocrisy says all one needs to know.

That doesn't even touch on the utterly absurd concept of blaming the ST on Kennedy, yet not giving her credit for The Mandalorian. Either she is responsible for both or for neither. Anything else just shows that you aren't interested one bit in judging her fairly.