Amph The 2022 Box Office Blood Booster

So, going into this next holiday weekend (and the start of the film's 3rd week), A2 took in another $20.1m domestically on Thurs to maintain an approx. 20-21% lead over A1's gross so far. Which has basically been the story for its entire second week. For comparison, the first week averaged a 30-31% lead.

Domestic sits at $358.1m (59th All-Time, Unadjusted), Worldwide total at $168.7m over a billion (23rd of All-Time, Unadjusted), though worldwide total isn't usually updated daily, so it's certainly much higher currently.

For other comparisons, Rogue One had $375.4m at the same point in its run, but A2 has been showing better weekday performances despite opening lower. A2 is expected to have a better third weekend than RO as well, which predictions have in the $50-60m- the upper range of which would pass NWH's NYE weekend performance and, with pretty much anything in that range, would pace A2 ahead of (or dead-even with) RO after the weekend.

No new releases this weekend, either. So, with Babylon likely dropping out of the picture heavily, it's basically just A2, Puss in Boots and Wakanda fighting for the top 3, Whitey likely holding fourth place without challenge and fifth being a fight between Violent Night and The Whale.

Fabelmans, Menu, Babylon & Strange World will round out the Top 10 in the remaining range. Small chance Babylon holds enough screens to bump it back up into the Whale/Violent Night brawl (I don't know how many screens it'll be on). Wildcard is A Man Called Otto, depending on how it performs in LA & NYC. With so much of the Top 10 under-performing, there's a good chance it'll rank pretty well and bounce one of the bottom half of that list off the chart.

EDIT- On a sidenote, going back to the OP of this thread and seeing how radical the release schedule changed over the course of this year is rather amusing.

 

A3's prospects in the future really depend on how "different" it can present itself. A2 took the typical Cameron sequel approach and gave you a new taste of something familiar, then built out into something new. A3 really needs to deliver the new-new for a hook. If they try to sell "more of the same", it'll stagnate. Moving from water to a different natural environment won't be enough. They'll need to open the world(s) up more.

But I trust Cameron has something in mind for that- if A2 is performing this well with only, effectively, a halfway point in the story, whatever the true climax is for this semi-duology that we'll be getting in A3 has gotta be pretty massive.

 

Final weekend Top 10 of 2022 estimates:

-Avatar 2: $63.4m
-Puss in Boots 2: $16.3
-BP2: $4.8
-Whitney: $4.3
-Babylon: $2.7
-Violent: $2.1
-Whale: $1.3
-Fabelmans: $1.14
-Menu: $1.07
-Strange World: $0.5

Devotion took in $0.3 in 11th and Empire of Light with $0.1 in 12th. Everything else below that is under 100k. Otto is estimating $60k in 16th for LA/NYC only.

A2's take this weekend would be higher than NWH's NYE weekend take and pace A2 just $3.3m behind RO's domestic total. The different holiday landing for A1 vs A2 hurts A2's lead, bringing it down to about 16.5% ahead of A1's domestic total, with Sat/NYE being the biggest hit in comparative performance (-44% compared to that same, non-NYE Sat for A1).


EDIT- Monday afternoon:

The total BO for the final weekend of 2022 is only $0.2m under 2021's- and when Actuals are revealed, it may just tie or surpass that. Still below pre-pandemic levels, obviously (by about half).

Going by estimates, A2 had the 4th best 3rd weekend of all time, and Monday estimates have raised it to $441m domestic and paces it about $46m ahead of Maverick. It also saw a 4% international increase. BOM reports that this represents the best winter blockbuster legs since A1.

Monday estimates also push it ahead of Wakanda domestically ($440m) to secure the #2 slot for 2022 domestically. It's also only days away from topping Maverick worldwide for the worldwide #1 slot for 2022 (and would have still done so even without China, just would have taken another week or so). Those estimates also pace it less than 400k under Rogue One.

Puss in Boots, meanwhile, saw a 31% boost, which is putting it on par with Sing 2 worldwide. Wakanda also rose, by 38%.

Babylon dropped by about a quarter and basically only has the hope of an overseas performance this month saving its pricetag.

 

Weekend Actuals are out- and A2 actually increased by $4.0m, so it has officially outpaced RO for the first time in that final weekend of 2022, finishing out the 2022 stretch of its run about 17% ahead of A1. Puss in Boots and BP also rose by about $0.5m each, while Whitney dropped from estimates by about the same. Meanwhile, Menu managed to edge out Fabelmans and swap spots as a result.

 

Yeah- other interesting notes:

-A2 will likely surpass Episode I's domestic total today, which would put it in the Top 20 on the All-Time list (possibly even as high as #18).

-Worldwide, it has already passed Ultron to take the #13 All-Time slot. It will certainly pass Maverick today on that chart as well, with Furious 7 and Avengers 1 in the crosshairs. So it'll be Top 10 by tomorrow. I think it will need at least another week to get past Lion King and Jurassic World, however. Then the big challenge of NWH looms in front of it so it'll chill at #7 for awhile.