Amph The 2023 Box Office Blood Barbie

Expectations are for M3GAN to hit the 20-30 range and be the biggest non-franchise opening weekend since early/mid-Sept. A2 is likely to be in the 40-60 range (A1 did $50.3m in the comparable weekend).

M3GAN might eat into that a bit more though and drop A2 into the 30’s (A1 didn’t have a high profile film opening against it in that weekend).

 

And A2 did in fact officially pass $1.5b worldwide on Wed. Domesticly, it made $7.5m Wed, which is 8% over A1's take that day and paces the overall domestic total at just under 19.5% over A1's.

It now sits on the Domestic All-Time comfortably between ANH & TPM at #21. It's just under $10m shy of TPM, so I think Thurs alone won't be enough but Fri will do the deed. Worldwide, it passed Maverick and Furious 7 on Wed to become the #10 All-Time and is only $2.3m shy of Avengers 1 for the 9th slot.

 

Thursday Actuals for A2:
-$6.8m Domestic, 10%+ over A1 for the day. Puts third week at 14.69% over A1's (up from 8.67% in Week 2). 19.31% over A1 domestic total (was 19.44% yesterday).
-A2 remains at #21 Domestic All-Time. Now only $2.8m under TPM.
-A2 rises to #9 on Worldwide chart, passing Avengers 1. Next up is The Lion King remake, which has a $116.2m lead currently.

So now things head into Week 4, which will probably be the best indicator for A2s upper limit (depending on how long it runs in theaters and especially overseas ie: China). A2 had the 3rd best 3rd weekend ever last weekend (after The Force Awakens and A1), and its most recent competitors (Maverick and NWH) have the 3rd and 7th records for 4th weekends ($44.7m & $32.6m, respectively).

The former isn't impossible to topple if A2 outperforms predictions this weekend, but seems a little outside current expectations. NWH will be much more likely to be surpassed in that regard. BP1 and A1 sit in the range in-between them and are both potential targets. A1 holds the #2 slot with $50.3 which would be very good for A2 if it can do that well (but seems like a distant outlier). American Sniper owns #1 for fourth weekends at $89.3 and its reign will not be challenged any time soon (it had a 3-week, soft roll-out before opening wide).


EDIT- Friday Estimates have an interesting story: they show M3GAN in first with $11.7m and A2 in second with $11.3m. However, that estimate for M3GAN likely includes Thurs previews, which we know came to $2.75m. So, M3GAN's take is seemingly just under $9m for Friday from which one can extrapolate the rest of the weekend from. And horror films tend to take a steeper dive after the first day, and especially into Sunday. So A2 will likely regain the #1 spot sat night and remain at the top for the weekend and the weekend overall.

So, I'm thinking $23-27m for M3GAN (counting previews) and $30-36m for A2.

 

I underestimated both it seems! Weekend estimates are out:

-A2: $45m
-M3GAN: $30.2m
-Puss: $13.1m
-Otto: $4.2m
-BP2: $3.4m

Basically, A2 got a slight uptick for Fri above the estimates i posted above (but only by $0.1m), then a big bump Sat and surpassed the Fri pull Sun on top of that. M3GAN managed to match the Thurs+Fri pull on Sat and have a decent Sun drop-off.

A2 Sat: $20.7m
M Sat: $11.7m
A2 Sun: Just under $13m
M Sun: $6.8

If these figures hold for the Actuals, domestically, A2 will jump past Episode I all the way to ahead of Episode IX to #16 with Rogue One just ahead of it.

Worldwide, it takes the #7 slot, jumping ahead of The Lion King and Jurassic World. Next up? NWH, which currently has about a $208m lead over A2.

 

Depending on what happens with China, the movie has potentially as much as another $100m to acquire there. If that happens, NWH definitely goes down (in combination with US and other territories), with Infinity War and Episode VII in play. I don't think Titanic, Endgame or A1 are within reach after that, though, unless this has insane holds by time Ant-Man comes out.

But Cameron could legitimately have 3 out of the 4 top grossing films of all time worldwide by time this over.

 

Yeah, just speaking worldwide. Domestic Top 10 is tough going and more varied.

 

Default state of evil.

 

The marketing was more effective than the film, but it does the job.

 

Fins

 

And a dramatic twist! The final weekend before Ant-Man comes out will be a box office showdown between James Cameron... and James Cameron!



A2 Weekend Actuals:
-Fri: 11.4
-Sat: 20.7
-Sun: 13.7 (a 0.7-0.8 uptick from Estimates)
-Weekend: $48.8m
(M3GAN also got a 0.2 weekend bump over Estimates as well)

All three days represent a drop from A1 in the same time period. The first entire weekend to have drops. Previously there have only been 6 days (out of the 21 prior to this weekend) that had drops- and most of those were because of the holiday calendar differences and very small drops on a weekday here or there. Drops were -16.67%, -2.9% & -15.33%, respectively. However, A2 remains pacing ahead of A1 by 16.71%.

Current A2 stats:
-$517.6m Domestic, #16 All-Time ($15.9m til RO, $17.4m til TDK, $24m til The Lion King '19, $89m til The Incredibles 2)
-$713.1m over a Billion Worldwide, #7 All-Time ($202.7m til NWH, $333.8m til Infinity War)
-At present, A2 could stop making any more money today and remain ahead of A1's pace for 10 days, domestically.

Also worth noting that this was the first weekend since July where two films grossed over $20m.