Amph The 2023 Box Office Blood Barbie

Estimates for 3 & 4-day weekend highlights:
-$31.1m/$38.5m for A2. At $1.89b worldwide, is now about $20m shy of NWH.
-$17.9/$21.2 for M3GAN, a 40% decline.
-$13.4/$17.3 for Puss in Boots.
-$12.6/$15 for Otto (seen as a very good hold for an adult audience-targeted film with a traditional platform release in terms of momentum and positive word of mouth).
-$10/$11.6 for Plane.
-$3.8/4.5 for House Party reboot (not a good performance but WB says the intention here is to raise its profile ahead of the HBOM debut).
-The Whale has passed $10m, seen as good for a limited release.
-Skinamarink is doing good per-screen numbers despite limited showtimes. It also apparently has nothing to do with The Elephant Show.

 

BOM hasn't updated yet but Variety says A2 is now at $570 domestic, which would be 13th on the All-Time chart, below The Incredibles 2's $608.6m. NWH sits at #3 with an astounding $814.1m (above A1's $785.2m). Maverick sits below A1 in 5th with $718.7m. A2 needs to do another $100m domestic before it even cracks the Top 8.

 

He didn't really walk it back- he never gave the $2b number to begin with. He said it would have to be one of the Top 3-4 grossing films of all time to be profitable, and then someone took that ranking literally and used the gross of the 5th ranked film if if that were to happen and ran with it. I doubt Cameron has the gross of the top grossing films of all time (outside of what his own films made) memorized offhand for interviews.

I doubt anyone would have run with the $2b figure to begin with if this had been produced like a traditional, single film. As much as it would be amusing to say that the film cost $666m to make, we know the film cannot have been that expensive on its own- but you have the extended prep, development and production costs for another film and 2 additional sequels, which muddies the waters on how you account for it (it's no even as "simple" as Infinity War/Endgame's single budget and all you need to do is divide by 2 to get a ballpark approximation). So, trying to sell a "this film is unbelievably expensive that it has to make an unguaranteed amount to break even" narrative fits what some people were trying to sell.

 

Not necessarily- broad hyperbole to indicate "with what this cost, it'll have to end up towards the top of the all time list" to indicate a general metric of "breaking a billion isn't enough" or something along those lines instead of a specific number isn't really all that unusual. A lot of people would claim a film needs to be highly successful to break even- no one, not even Cameron, is going to say that a film needs to make $2b to break even. And it requires a 3rd party to turn his statement into a specific numerical boast by ignoring the hyperbole.

But, you're right, it's mostly a moot point now. But we are still seeing the "2b" interpretation lingering in the conversation, so still probably best to contextualize it properly.

 

Weekend Actuals are in, and are basically close to the estimates, except for A2 and Puss in Boots (both of which got a ~$1.5m boost across the 4-day weekend over estimates).

A2 stands at $916.3m over $1b worldwide and $571.7m domestic. Which means that A2 has very likely passed NWH's worldwide total either already on Tues, or will do so today (with only a $5.6m difference remaining as of Monday's totals). It is currently pacing 11.65% ahead of A1.

 

All-Time Worldwide: The first conflict in The Battle of Ways concludes, as A2 did indeed pass NWH on Tuesday. $2.8m domestic actual plus overseas pull surpasses Spidey!

#6) Avatar: The Way of Water- $1,928,251,314.
#7) Spider-Man: No Way Home- $1,921,847,111.

$120.1m to go to get to the next slot: Avengers: Infinity War.

Spidey still fending off A2 in the second conflict of The Battle of Ways, for now: Spidey still maintains a $240m lead there.

 

The first 3D rerelease in 2012 (for the 100th anniversary of the actual sinking) made $350.5m worldwide, $57.9m domestic (on a budget of $18m for the conversion and small effects tweaks like the NDGT's corrected night sky star pattern). But that was at the height of 3D sales.

The 2017 rerelease for the 20th anniversary of the film was only for 1 week domestically and made $691.6 thousand. 2020 limited overseas rerelease (in places that had covid mostly under control like New Zealand) during the pandemic made $71t.

It'll do significantly better than the '17 release- it's wider, more hyped, less competition at box office, piggybacking A2's success as a JC film, etc. I'm thinking 20-25 domestic isn't unreasonable, depending on how many weeks it is playing. Opening weekend $12m.