ST Episode IX Box Office Discussion

You are - there is negative ticket inflation between 2019 and 2020 adjustments.

 

After being a member since neogaf days I got permabanned from resetera a few months ago for arguing that people who like anime are not pedophiles (yes, there was a thread where people were saying that if you like My Hero Academia then you're a pedo).

 

Pre-inflation, which is how most people in the world seem to discuss records (few talk Gone with the Wind when End Game or Avatar come up), TROS passed Jurassic Park last night and is now officially one of top 40 all time highest grossing films worldwide.



If the international returns can continue to outpace the domestic as they have it may have a shot to rise from 39th to 30th and knock out this film from the top 30 all time.

 

Yes agreed.

 

But they don't want to wait too long. The longer they wait, the more rumors were swirl about them not having a plan for post-ST at least when it comes to the live action films. TV series seems pretty square with Mando, Obi-Wan and Cassian Andor but live action films seem totally up in the air right now.

 

But TLJ came out in 2017 - has there been 3 years of ticket price deflation or has it only occurred this last year and it was big enough to deliver this 20m decrease?

 

There's been two years. 2017 -> 2018 saw inflation, but 2018 -> 2019 and 2019 -> 2020 both saw deflation.

 

Good work.

 

The weekend estimate is in:

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
(Disney) $5.2 Mill $501.7 Mill -37% 6 wks

 

I don't see that happening. I would think 4.5M is more likely.

 

It’ll be interesting to see the theatre drop for this coming week. It’s outplayed Jumanji through the last couple of days in per theatre average.

Anyways, $627,448 for Wednesday.

Domestic total at $495,816,498.

 

I’ve always used NATO when looking at the year after year average ticket price. NATO is the National Association of Theater Owners. I know average ticket price is not the same thing when it comes to inflation, but, there are times I like getting a rough idea as to how many tickets a movie sold rather than its box office dollar amount...
https://www.natoonline.org/data/ticket-price/

 

I'm thinking more for the weekend between $3.5 to maybe $4.1 million and that the latter being a stretch. For Thursday, its going to be around $585,000 to $630,000.
Do they still do those dollar discount movie theaters? Or are those a thing of the past?

 

The way they may be looking at it is that the weekend will be slightly higher than the M-Th. That's how it usually works the weekend after MLK weekend. It will probably make around $4.4 million M-Th so around $5.0-$5.2 sounds pretty accurate actually for the weekend.

The movie might push toward $515 million domestic as its overall haul. I wonder if all the leaked concept art may actually help the film slightly this week.

 

Star Wars: Episode VIII - The Last Jedi $603,618,885

Ok so The Last Jedi adjusted for inflation is bizarrely less than its $620 mill it took domestically ,

and now with TROS looking at $515 to $520 mill domestic then this represents 83% to 85% of TLJ gross ,

Now with the huge backlash TLJ took and other circumstances ( saturation ect ) I would say 85% is not to bad because when the other trilogies had an upswing to the third movie they weren't battling the same backlash and saturation ( AOTC did not have a petition to remake it ).

 

AOTC was just not as big of a fall from TPM. ROTS, of course, had the hook of Darth Vader on the big screen for the first time in 20+ years. And ROTJ had the hook of finding out whether Darth Vader really was Luke's father and riding the wave of concluding the story a lot of pop culture revolved around.

TLJ did a lot of damage for sure and evaporated the stakes for TROS. Palpatine was a Hail Mary at the end, but it didn't really work.

 

If Disney/Lucasfilm are spending some time ruminating over how they can make the next film/films 'better' than the ST, then I think some time to reflect is a good and necessary thing. If they haven't learnt anything, then any delay is academic.

 

Others would say that THE LAST JEDI was too good of a movie compared to very much flawed THE FORCE AWAKENS and, specially, THE RISE OF SKYWALKER.

 

Whilst I think TLJ is the technically better film of the sequels, I do believe it would be true to say that it does diminish the stakes for TROS. If you think of where TESB and AOTC lead into the 3rd films of their respective trilogies, they leave much more anticipation for whats' to come. TLJ kind of resolves itself by the end of the film and even goes as far as perhaps alluding to a 'New Hope' with broom boy. It almost plays like the 3rd film in a trilogy.

 

TLJ's problem is that as a standalone movie, it would be excellent, but as the middle episode of a trilogy, it kills most of what the third movie could use to build from the first movie instead of expanding and building more from the first movie, and as a part of the timeless Star Wars saga, it spends most of its time demolishing its continuity for the sake of great visuals and current-day political messaging.

TLJ is a great movie. SW EP. VIII: TLJ is a terrible movie.

 

I really don't understand why people say VIII kills what has been built. You've got two great characters, Kylo and Rey, who are trying to redeem/corrupt each other, why the hell can't that be the conflict? Why do you need some outside villain to be the worse guy to just repeat ROTJ? Kylo is a great character, make him earn redemption through his actions.

 

I do wonder what happens after TLJ if they didn't bring back Palpatine in the flesh. My guess is Ep 9 probably does about 50 million less domestically than it has unless they hit a homerun with a good movie where word of mouth generated a lot of extra traffic. That evil laughing from Palpatine in the trailers probably did help out in reality.

 

Way less 3D screenings now.

 

Exactly, everything had been set up: Ren had become the true villain and Rey was trying to bring him back to the light. Why bringing back Palpatine for the last 3rd???
Because JJ did not want to upset (part of) the fanbase, so he didn't dare to continue what had already been set up in Episode VIII. Granpa Pal, Leia Jedi Teacher, endless list of cameos, etc. All terrible ideas to close the saga.

 

I wasn't even commenting on good/bad in terms of the movie. It's that the stakes set up in TFA were evaporated by TLJ, giving people no reason to come back for the third movie. So much of the setup for the ST was more or less done by the end of TLJ (except how the Resistance would beat the First Order), so there was no hook for Movie #3. That's a problem for box office.