Discussion The Mandalorian and Grogu Box Office Thread - Releasing May 22, 2026

A site has predicted Avatar 2 will do $650 domestic so less than Top Gun , they factored in the 13 years between films and the fact 3D is a thing of the past.....also there is a no Tom Cruise factor , they didn't mention worldwide - if it gets a China release then your talking $1.2 billion so a grand total worldwide of $1.85 billion - which aint bad considering all the factors

 

Top Gun 2 made money because it was Top Gun 2 - just like TFA made money because it was Episode 7.

The logic that Top Gun 2's success will help Rogue Squadron get made doesn't seem particularly strong. Knives Out success isn't helping any RJ SW movies get made.

Release date pushed back with no date named to replace it?.

 

Who knows if RS will ever get made now, if Taika's Star Wars in Dec 25 then the next Star Wars movie is Dec 2027 and the 2029,

This all depends if Disney are doing Stand alone movies only now cause if Taika's ends up a trilogy then this is crazy but your talking 2031!

 

I can't find anywhere to post this info, so I'll do it here. I am utterly impressed with the re-release of Avatar in theaters. It has done for a 2009 movie way better than the Spiderman re-release. I mean over $71 million total at the worldwide box office with $23 million in the North America box office alone. Let me tell you for a movie that has no appeal it done fantastic. And when you look at the entire cumulative worldwide box office it has a staggering $2.919 billion. No one is even close to that number. You know with the world being the way it is, and everyone hummed drummed between Marvel and DC movies (they their same stuff just different companies) and no Star Wars in the horizon, it makes me wonder if Avatar 2 will be very big.

I also want to add that the re-release of Spiderman was not really that great. The extra material didn't really add anything more to the movie if you ask me. I felt that it was a cash grab. I'm not going to say that releasing Avatar isn't either because we all knew that Cameron wasn't going to just stay worldwide in second. He maybe 4th in the North American box office but he really wants to rule the worldwide one. Still, they release the movie a while back in China and it did good and now, they release it again and it still does good. It is unbelievable. I have heard all the naysayers say that things are different now and 3-D was a fad of the past and it ain't going to be as good as before and all that negative jazz yet if anything there is still demand for it and people are going to see the second movie. Then the word of mouth will spread that the movie is good, and more people will see it. Everyone from the regular people to the Stre Trek fans, the Star Wars fans, the Marvel fans, the DC fans, the Godzilla fans, the kids, the pre-teens, the teens, the young adults, the working adults the elderly. I mean this one is going to be big, and it will air in China so that is going to be an even bigger plus.

 

We are getting a new Cinema complex where I live and there going to have an IMAX 3D with crystal clear imaging and the first movie shown is Avatar 2 , can't wait and Christmas 2023 Aquaman 2 instead of any Star Wars movie

 

Between the Way of Water and Aquaman, I hope the IMAX screen is water proof.

*runs away*

 

Avatar has huge news today ....The Way of Water is getting a chinese release meaning $2 billion WW is not out of reach , China has the potential to do $500 million on it's own - meaning $1.8 billion is almost a given.

 

Yeah, well, Rogue Squadron, like, might be in production. So take that, Jim!

 

RS in production in 2026 or never which is more likely.....

 

Yeah, I doubt we will be getting a Rogue Squadron movie and if we do it would have to be a Disney + affair.

Unfortunately, I am excited about this because this movie while a Disney movie is definitely a James Cameron movie. Not to sound like a jerk, but none of Marvel's Phase 4 woke movies made it into China but Avatar 2 got the clearance. This movie will be good, and anyway I already got tickets and looking forward to it. I didn't care too much for Black Panther 2 so I am looking for this movie to get things really going at the box office. Black Panther 2 is doing okay but it is not cracking the box office, regardless if it leads this weekend and the next. The drops are just way to much, I'll be surprised if the movie make $415 million domestic, and a billion worldwide? Yeah I don't see it unless the numbers get fudged.

 

You think the movie will be good because it has the approval of the CCP? I hope I missed your point.

 

Oh boy, do I have some bad news for you...

 

Don't know what your talking about - pre sales are huge looking at $150 to $180 mill OW and $580 to $700 mill are the low and high ends domestic - rest of the world would be $900 mill to $1.3 billion low to high end so low end would be $1.5 billion WW and high end $2 billion.

 

It's being reported that Avatar 2 will come in at 134m for the weekend (and looks like it fell below expectations world wide as well). Not a real strong opening considering how expensive these films are and how many more of them they plan on doing. Probably best to wait until after the holidays to make too big of deal of it but they likely were hoping for a much bigger opening than this.

It probably will still squeak out a billion but not sure just making a billion is acceptable for this film.

 

Gee you don't know much do you in the previous post:

1. Avatar was never going to play like Marvel and it's legs will be huge,
2. It's worldwide is $485 million already
3. It will take $1 billion + by new years day
4. it will squeak out almost $2 billion!

 

Are you sure? The people in the box office pro forums are so disappointed with the OW that they are talking about the world cup in the Avatar 2 box office thread instead of Avatar 2.

It's not getting anywhere near 2 billion. Perhaps it could come close in pre-pandemic days but the box office in 2022 isn't close to what it was prior to 2020.

 

The world cup was one reason for a slight under performance but all JC's films released at Christmas have long legs and big multipliers - Titanic had a multiplier of 21 on it's OW and Avatar had a multiplier of 9.7 so even if Avatar 2 had a multiplier of half the first one it would do $650 mill domestic.

 

You can't compare the legs of films released in 1997 and 2009 to films released today. Film watching is completely different now.

Films are vastly more front loaded than they were then

 

I’ve not front loaded a film since the days of VHS.

20 years of **** posting!

 

Happy Anniversary!

 

They're so cute at that age.

 

James Cameron !

 

What were the opening weekend totals?