Amph 2023 Oscars (discussion of likely award-winning films)

The biggest change is that no one watches them. They're still entertainment news but ratings are in the toilet. The model of using oscars to drive box office of smaller films is also broken as 95% of those movies are streaming within a week of release.

 

Only 3 directors have ever won more than 2 Oscars for Best Director.
Spielberg certainly is worthy of being in that illustrious company, as arguably the greatest director of the last half century.

Plus he won the Golden Globe, which is often an indicator of Oscars victory.

 

i just can't think of a popular film of the last 15 years that was a legitimate snub, at least in terms of being nominated.

 

Good taste or not i think the path of the Academy these days is troublesome.
As today, the Oscar show has no business being aired on network TV. Due the nature of the movies the Academy has been awarding lately it could be streamed somewhere.
See, the imense decline in ratings the show suffers years after year can't be simply labeled as poor taste of the audience.
The show, the event, the content aired has become uninteresting. It's about movies nobody saw in the theaters and also nobody wants to spend a night watching those movies being awarded.
Do you really remember CODA ? Or Moonlight ? Or Nomadland.
Spielberg can win (again) for The Fabelmans. It won't change the fact he changed the industry with Jaws and E.T. and decades from now will be remembered for theses movies. Or Jurassic Park. Or Indiana Jones. Maybe for Schindler's List or Color Purple. Not for this.
And here my 2 cents: the Academy is hurting the industry. Why ? Because this "pseudo" elitist aproach don't bring one single soul more to the theaters.
See, as said people go less and less to the movies. How long the theaters are going to last ? And how long will be possible making movies if nobody go see ? Should all the movies go to streaming ?
Big movies ( this century , the super hero movies, bu not long before they were the Star Wars and Spielberg movies) more than bring BO money, should also create the habit of going to the cinema. Make people like cinema. Make people people discover the art, with time. And for an industry/economic POV give people jobs
These movies, like CODA or Nomadland, historically were awarded in Spirit Awards, just because they are not mainstream. When you award CODA you are basicly awarding a streaming movie, not a theater movie. How many people got employed thanks a James Cameron, a Tom Cruise movie ? And how many got jobs out this semi-independent, semi art house movies? And how long the movie industry will last ?
See, last year the great movie studio Warner Brothers came public in september and said it had money to only release 2 more movies in 2022 : Black Adam and Don't Worry Darling.
How long till other studios also get out of money to release movies in theaters.?
And then again with the academy closing itself that make it's most important event completely uninteresting to the main public helps the situation?
How i said, IMHO it makes matters worse.
But, aside the finacial side, aside the economics, also there's another thing: are these movies winning the Oscar really that good?
Are the CODA's, Nomadland's, Moonlight's, that special or memorable ? Are there people stiull talking about them out there ?
Quite frankly, not.
Are the Banshees of Inherim or Tar all that better than The Menu or Ticket to Paradise, two moderate hits at the BO and certainly not mainstream adventures/big spectable movies? Not in my book.
Should a breakout success ( maybe the only one in the year) like Smile be completely ignored ?
It's not like Top Gun or Avatar should automatically win but the fact is that mediocre products are besting the movies most of people enjoy and that annoying and financially suicidal. Like i said before the Academy adds to the problems the movie industry faces due to a self proclaimed intelectual superiority that exists only in their ego.

 

bc it's not a bloated VFX reel, it's one of the most well-crafted movies (cinematography, editing, clarity of action sequences etc.) made this decade that happens to have a stupid-ass story. if you're looking at craft, you just can't rly make an argument for the discrepancy.

 

I stand corrected from my earlier post. I did see one of the movies nominated for Best Picture: "Top Gun: Maverick". And, with a couple of exceptions, I've at least heard of the other nominees.
But I stand by my assertion that, six months after the ceremony, 95% of the public will not remember who the winner was without looking it up. And that goes up to 98.5% if you ask them to name the last five Best Picture winners without help.

 

& the public has **** taste, who cares?

 

you know you're in trouble if Black Adam and Don't Worry Darling are your Hail Mary plays.

 

I dunno. EEAAO is a strong contender for Best Picture and all my friends and family have seen it and talk about it a lot. That would be a great win.

 

Still need to see Elvis, Triangle of Sadness and Women Talking which the last one should be on VOD in a few weeks I'm guessing. My favourites are Banshees of Inisherin and #1 is Everything Everywhere All At Once. I'd be rooting for Everything and Avatar 2 because I want to see a sci-fi movie win Best Picture before I freaking expire. Wakanda Forever should have been in there for Best Picture but Bassett seems like a lock. Ditto for Quan for Best Supporting (why is Gleeson in Supporting actor hes a lead? Anyway Quan is a lock). Good to see Everything actors getting a bunch, would love to see Hsu win, shes so great, wild performance and she put everything on a bagel.

Of course Best Picture will probably go to Tar or Fablemans because important serious things, Fablemans probably in the lead because Spielberg and about movies.

Wasn't a huge Tar fan but I did like the last 30 minutes and the final scene was aces, and this bit was gold

 

@nilzo antonio Naked Gun 33 1/3 explained it so perfectly almost 30 years ago and hasn't changed since:

 

"It's the bomb!"
*Sawdust and Mildew gets up*

 

There were some performances in Triangle of Sadness that could have been nominated but weren't. The vomit scene should automatically win the award for best visual effects.

 

I thought Everything Everywhere All At Once would get a VFX nod because it was like 6 people DIY and would have been hilarious if it beat Avatar 2 for FX just to see Cameron's head actually explode on live TV

 

Then you & your acquaintances are part of that rare 5%.

 

I would argue almost all the "visual effects" in EEAAO are not VFX but are instead just fantastic editing and some practical effects. That's probably why VFX people didn't give it a nom.


That being said... It's probably the most deserving of an editing Oscar any film has been since The Usual Suspects.

 

Everything Everywhere All At Once made 100 million worldwide for an indie sci-fi flick, it isn't exactly unknown. Hell it did better than WBs late 2022 swings of Don't Worry Darling (more money worldwide) and (financial return speaking) of Black Adam.

 

As stated it made 100 million. It's not a tiny film. And the people I know who've seen it include my middle aged aunt and uncle. A LOT of people have seen it, but especially people in gen Z and Millennials.

Hell they released an official EEAAO tribute using a BTS member's solo song. The movie is especially big amongst Asian-Americans I know.

 

Was that to not split the vote if he and Farrell were both up for best actor causing neither to win. And Farrell does have more screen time.

I think Gleeson has a very good chance of winning best supporting. Quan does too but I don’t think he’s as much a shoe in as you’re saying. Gleeson’s character was shocking and human in a way that stuck with me.

 

The Academies should award movies that have artistic merit, not populist entertainment.

That's for awards with a public vote or some other category.

Whether or not people talk about Birdman or CODA, they're definitely better made than Black Adam or Spider-Man and so are more deserving of awards


I've been in favour for years of an ensemble award, for movies with a great all-round cast (like say, Knives Out). That would perhaps go some way towards satisfying the wider public that watch the movies the academies generically overlook.
The superhero movies would certainly be contenders for that sort of thing

 

No hate on Gleeson who is fantastic as well but Quan has the better "comeback story" or what have you Oscar political vote thingie. And he's also great! Easiest bet in a pool

 

the populists can just continue to not watch the Oscars and suck a ****

 

Then it will get cancelled.

Big shows need ratings, the award shows have to stay relevant with the wider public otherwise they'll disappear.
Diversity in nominations is part of that, recognising a wider pool of talent helps attract more viewers

 

Hoping All Quiet on the Western Front wins Best Foreign Film; don't like its chances for overall Best Picture.

 

While I do still generally prefer the Critics Choice awards, absolutely agree that the Oscars should be about great filmmaking not popular filmmaking.

Yes this leads to some try hard Oscar bait flops. But hey Top Gun: Maverick is deservedly also up for several Oscars even though it's an entertaining movie. Know why? Because it's a damned good movie, peiod.