Discussion in 'Community' started by Reynar_Tedros, Nov 16, 2006.
i think the standard for relievers in the HOF should be incredibly high. i don't consider wagner as i would hoffman and rivera.
i'm sure you've got a sabermetrics answer at the ready, just know that i'm using the eye test and my own warped logic.
I know the actual ballot caps at 10 but whatever.
I don't, actually -- he's definitely lesser-than imo, but I viewed those three as the only HOF worthy closers in the modern era (so far).
Doing just a cursory glance at B-R would say "probably not" (and he's in the same career saves range as your favorite, Francisco Rodríguez) -- but his career ERA+ (187) would put him halfway between Mariano Rivera (who the the GOAT at 205) and Clayton Kershaw (who is a distant 2nd at 158). His career being only 16 years definitely hurt him on longevity as he doesn't qualify for career stats. But he was also pretty f'in terrible in the postseason, as a knock...
@heels1785 - Billy Wagner ranks #1 among Left-handed pitchers with at least 900 IP (in the live ball era) in the following categories: WHIP, ERA, Strikeout rate
Sure, there's some cherry picking of stats there. But that's pretty damn good.
@dp4m - Abreu is 49th in baseball history in number of times reaching base. The man was an OBP machine before the Sabermetrics revolution. He reached base more than Tony Gywnn,and his career OBP is higher than hall of famers Cap Anson, Rod Carew, Al Kaline, and more.
Abreu I don't think deserves to get in. But he deserves to get votes and let people remark at how under-the-radar his career was before falling off. Then again, Harold Baines is a Hall of Famer, so maybe the bar is a lot lower and he should be in.
Abreu is a wildly underrated hitter and a wildly overrated defender. I think he falls short and I wouldn't be surprised if he falls off the ballot this year, but probably deserves more of a look than that.
Yeah, Helton's career OBP is much higher than Abreu's in only one fewer and I don't think he's HOF worthy either...
(John Kruk's is also higher...)
EDIT: And Sheffield is higher than Abreu on the "reached base" list and still a no from me, dog...
i'd probably only vote for omar.
I just want to go on record that this had nothing to do with the result I just posted.
a bit yeah. it's a bit personal for me i guess. the steroids just really ruined my enjoyment of the game for a long period of time, and some of the other guys people are listing just aren't hall of famers to me.
I get that argument, but I also don't get the argument against Schilling.
The HoF is full of racists and terrible people. What Schilling accomplished on the mound - especially in the post season - seems like a clear-cut Hall of Fame candidacy, but not a first-ballot type of resume. I'm not defending a single thing he's said or done since he retired, or anything before then off the field. But his on-field resume feels like one that belongs in the Hall.
oh my argument against schilling i will fully admit is just pure loathing of the human. that other loathsome people are already in doesn't move me much.
Well looks like Theo is stepping down on Friday. Jed Hoyer replacing him, which is completely expected.
I assume the HOF winners from this past season will get their ceremonies next year since the whole thing was cancelled. Unless they maybe want to hold two ceremonies during the Summer.
Looks like it will be only one
https://baseballhall.org/news/2020-induction-ceremony-canceled#:~:text=The Class of 2020 – consisting,of Fame Class of 2021.
I wonder if Josh McLeod will then become the GM since Theo talk about line of succession at his end of year press conference being important to him. Jed now gets his chance to be president therefore it only make sense if Josh finally got his chance to be the GM.
Probably @Luke02 , definitely wouldn't be surprised
Yeah, but Pettitte pitched the equivalent of a CY-worthy season over the course of his career in the postseason (19-11 in 270 IP) -- he just did it over a while, whereas Schilling did it in a much, much shorter time...
Again, I still say he makes it and I vote against him for roughly tom-reasons...
I was more talking about WPA, but it was just easier to represent 19-11 in 270 IP as a full season of baseball...
i mean yeah if he started 44 games and pitched 276 innings in a season that would be impressive, and a significant jump from anything he ever did. his actual numbers though are good but not great, especially if it's schilling we're comparing to.
To compare Pettitte to Schilling is hilarious.
Wagner (even though he was terrible in the playoffs)
It's a great defensive class.
Vizquel as one of the greatest shortstops ever.
Rolen and Helton both needed great defense to just barely get them in.
Andruw Jones is the greatest centerfielder ever.
Manny gets in on the virtue of his beautiful swing. Defensively, he was horrific. So was Sheff.
Inty already covered Abreu.
No on Clemens and Bonds because of steroids. No on Schilling because **** that guy.
I'm really borderline on Sheff. That bat cock, followed by that violent bat speed. I do believe Sheff was on steroids in his prime, and he was a jerk. But, really, to put Manny in and not Sheff doesn't make sense. Manny actually got caught. But Manny's numbers are better, and I have to acknowledge his cult of personality, even if I didn't like it myself.
I'm borderline on Kent, but he's a 2B with 377 home runs, 1518 RBI, and 290/356/500, plus an MVP that should have went to Bonds before him. I'm surprised he hasn't gotten in already based on his counting stats, WAR be damned. Kent was also a jerk.
I want to know which numbers of Schillings' are so far superior to Pettitte's; especially considering Pettitte spent 15 of his 18 years in the offensively-packed AL East.
his postseason numbers are what we were talking about.
Even if you compare regular season WAR, which adjusts for quality of opponents and ballparks, Schilling is way ahead of Pettitte. Schilling career WAR is 79.5, Pettitte's is 60.2. That's significant. The average HOF SP has a career WAR of 73.3, which Pettitte is well short of. Schilling's WAR7, his seven best years, is 48.6, Pettitte's is a dismal 34.7. The average HOF SP has a WAR7 of 50.0, which again, Pettitte is way short of. That's the big difference. Pettitte was never elite, he was a compiler helped by steroids. There's a reason Schilling got 70% of the votes in 2020, while Pettitte got 11.3%, and I don't think that reason is steroids. It's because Pettitte was never elite. Schilling was way better at his peak than Pettitte was at his.
Other career numbers:
Schilling 3.46 ERA, 127 ERA+ (adjust for opponents and ballpark), 3.23 FIP, 1.137 WHIP, 8.6K/9, 4.38 SO/W
Pettitte 3.85 ERA, 117 ERA+, 3.74 FIP, 1.351 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, 2.37 SO/W
If you like counting stats, which I do: Schilling 3116 SO to Pettitte's 2448, despite Pettitte pitching a few more innings. Schilling threw 83 CG and 20 SHO, Pettitte 26 and 4. Schilling struck 300 batters three times, Pettitte never struck out even 200 in a season. This speaks to ability to dominate, which I think matters.
The most CG Pettitte ever threw in a season was five, which he did once; Schilling once threw 15 in a season, and topped 5 CG seven times. Schilling topped 250 innings four times; Pettitte never did that, and only had one season where he even came close (240 in 97).
Pettitte led the league in wins once, starts three times, H9 once. Schilling led in wins twice, starts three times, CG four times, innings twice, SO twice, FIP once, WHIP twice, H9 once, BB9 twice, SO/W five times, including four years in a row. Schilling's list is much longer.
Schilling is just significantly better across the board, and yeah, including the postseason.
Schilling postseason ERA: 2.23, which is dominant
Pettitte postseason ERA: 3.81, which just makes him another guy
Schilling threw 4 CG and 2 SHO in the postseason, Pettitte none.
For some reason Yankees fans have forgotten that Pettitte was completely ****ing awful in his early postseason appearances, and got blown up a bit in his prime, too. I remember when Yankees fans hated Pettitte. Long time ago, but those postseason losses happened.
Let's list Pettitte's postseason ERA series by series, starting from his first, to give you a glimpse.
5.14, 5.68, 3.60, 5.91, 8.49, 1.29, 11.57
There are some big numbers in there.
99 WS: 12.27
2001 WS: 10.00
2002 ALDS: 12.00
Schilling pitched in twelve postseason series, and had only two bad series by ERA, with a 6.30 ERA in the 2004 ALCS, and 5.40 in 2007 ALCS. In the 2004 ALCS, he got blown up in game one, but then pitched a gem to win game six (the bloody sock game). Seven innings, one ER. Same thing in 2007 ALCS. He got blown up in game two, pitched a good game for the win in game six. Seven innings, two ER.
So. There are Schilling's numbers that are better: pretty much all of them, even if you account for the AL East.