ST Episode IX Box Office Discussion

For Aladdin, if the RT score either continues to drop or stays in the low 60's and the movie is close to the Deadline prediction of $75 million 4-day (which would be around $55-$60 million 3-day) then $200 million domestic looks sadly out of reach tbqh.

Aladdin making POTC5/Mary Poppins 2 numbers domestically is really pathetic.

 

I'm seeing it tomorrow evening. I expect to be entertained.

 

It may not have had the amount of marketing oompfh behind it that we're accustomed to seeing with recent SW movies, but I think it was enough to get it noticed by a sufficient amount of the GA (the awareness numbers leading up to release were solid, leading to the tracking overprojections). But at the end of the day, they sold the movie they had on their hands. There just may not be a good way to sell a Han Solo movie that doesn't include Harrison Ford. Not one good enough to offset what they ended up spending on it.

 

July 4th isn't quite the movie holiday it once was when you had movies like Diehard 2 and Independence Day 1 open on it but depending on when it falls, you can still do decent business over it. On years when the holiday falls mid week you can get a good opening on it since you will have the entire week to kinda string along some numbers. But when it falls on the weekend it struggles more. The thing about Memorial Day Weekend is it always falls on the last Monday in May therefore people know they will at minimum have a three day weekend. Plus it's the kickoff to summer so if the weather is good people are looking to do something outdoors or get of town for a few days.

 

In Disney`s place I would honestly have waited on the Vanity Fair stuff for SW one more week so that it can steal potential social media thunder of the opening of rival studio`s Godzilla and not Disney`s own Aladdin. Sure, the two things can easily co-exist but I would give each tentpole project one weekend solely their own. Without any big news on other projects.

 

Only 60% on RT now for Aladdin. Would be a shame to see it go Rotten.

 

It already has. It is wavering back and forth. Started so well at first that seeing it plummet is more disappointing than having is start rotten.

Disney's live actions-yikes. Disappointment has become more than a pattern. It's become an expectation. Disney would hardly be a movie making studio (other than 1-2 animations per year) if not for SW and Marvel.

 

Embarrassing for Disney. There is no reason that films such as Dumbo and Aladdin should be both rotten and underperform. Both should have been huge hits. Next up Lion King, I bet it underperforms as well.

 

At this point, I can't help but to think that TLK will fail to live up to expectations. But I'm not sure what the expectations would be. Aladdin, Dumbo, Mary Poppins2, Nutcracker, Christopher Robins, Wrinkle in Time, Solo, Pete's Dragon, POTC5, Alice2....this is NOT a good track record in any way, shape, or form. Like I said, outside of Marvel and MOST SW films, the live-action track record has overall not been so good. Even if not all of them have done masterfully in the box office (not all animated films did well either) it seems as though very few can make the grade with reviews. Pete's Dragon and TJB had good reviews but the former did HORRIBLY at the box office. Poppins didn't do that badly with reviews but considering some of the buzz it got early? And it still didn't do that well in the box office.

Should Disney hang it up with these? Prior to buying Marvel and SW, they were putting out 1-2 decent animation films almost every year but beyond that they were lucky to have 1 major hit. Thing is-those movies were not tied to the Disney brand in terms of merchandising and parks (movies like the Narnia films and National Treasure). Now they are-the remakes at least. So I imagine it puts a strain on the entire brand. Amiright?

 

That's published by Vanity Fair on their publishing schedule. Disney has limited control over that.

 

I am probably an outlier but I can say that I haven't been interested in any of the live action remakes except for Mulan BUT when I read all of the aspects of the movie they changed (no music, no Mushu, no Shang) any desire to go see it was effectively doused.

 

53% RT among Top Critics. Last night it had a lot of positive reviews on twitter, so it just shows how much of a grain of salt you have to take those with. Unfortunately for Aladdin after that first rough teaser in February, some folks already had a pre set agenda for how the movie was going to fail. Disney REALLY whiffed with the marketing for this film. Should have been an 80% RT and close to $1B type film, but will fall short on both fronts.

 

There is a world beyond that 59% Rotten score it has now. The movie could still be allowed to breath and live when the audience meets it. But it baffles me how much Rotten Tomatoes are allowed to dictacte the days prior to a movies premiere. Or rather: How much people in US take notice of it. Its not such a big deal over here in Europe. Yes, it has become for a stupid cineast/ blockbuster lover like me, but i am not the «general audience» so much, and they will not care.

 

But none, other than Pete's Dragon and TJB have really knocked it out on RT. And I don't understand all of the negativity about the marketing. I thought the marketing was great. But then again I have a daughter who watched Disney Junior so......you get 1-3 commercials about it an hour.

What else could they have done? The full trailer was met with a lot of positive. Scrap the Prince Ali promo? Just seems as though it was doomed from the start. Everyone always talked about how great BatB looked well before the release. Not so much with this one.

 

They could have made Aladdin the prime live action remake movie in 2020. Like BATB was in its year. Like Lion King will be this year. It would have semented the «event film» statement.

 

Disney has oversaturated the market with these remakes this year. People are only willing to be treated to these every so often. When it was once a year we were fine, but no way are we going to see 3, 4 or 5 of these in a year.

EDIT: I would truly rather see Pirates 6, National Treasure 3, or even John Carter 2 or Lone Ranger 2 versus these live action remakes! Or better yet, remake the less successful animated films, like Robin Hood or Atlantis, with upgraded scripts and a better cast and director. Just be original!

 

Someone somewhere made the analogy that this is like "fast food movies". I think that fits. I guess that is the way the movie industry is viewing all of these remakes and sequels.

But if that is the case, what is gourmet movies? Or heck, even sit down full service movies? Are those the ones that nobody sees but are always up for the awards?

People want original stuff. There have been very original successful films done by Disney. Let me name a few in the past several years: Frozen, Moana, Coco, Inside Out, Big Hero 6, Zootopia, Brave.....Yeah I think you get what I'm saying.

@Othini I really don't see that Aladdin (however it does) would do any better in 2020 or if they'd even do anything different.

 

So, what does everyone think Endgame's chances are of passing Avatar now?

 

General audiences do not care about RT scores. Alladdin will do very fine, I think it has a chance of going over 1B WW.

Reviews I have seen mention it has a few minor flaws: a new song that is not so great, Will Smith singing fails to impress, Genie's CGI which looks like Will Smith head was pasted on a Genie body, Will Smith not able to nail the constant changes of character of Genie.

So, it seems Will Smith had a tough journey to compare to Robin WIlliams, but who wouldn't?

 

So now that we've had our first taste of the Rise of Skywalker marketing with the Vanity Fair reveal, how do people here feel about the movie's potential box office pull come December?

Personally, while I (and many of my friends irl) like all of the new photos and tidbits very much, a lot of the reaction I've noticed online seems to lean way more towards the negative (I mentioned this on another thread from this sub-forum).

This makes me worried that the film won't do as well as needs to. Do others feel the same, or is it just me being a negative nancy?

 

VF hasn't changed my thoughts on TROS' box office run. I am still completely undecided about it. One minute I think it has the potential to do quite a bit higher than TLJ, then the next minute I think it will fall under $600 million. Just really depends on my mood at the moment because I don't have anything else to go on but my mood lol.

 

“Practical effects” and “real locations” aren’t going to fill the seats. You can’t go that well again.

 

I have not seen any negativity regarding the Vanity Fair Covers/Shoot. I have only seen people think the shots are amazing and it has people excited to see what happens next. My predictions for TROS have been 235 OW 725D 1.5 WW for a long time now. I see no need to change that.

 

Yeah, I think I jinxed it

The knives were out before then if we're being honest. I think they were being sharpened the minute Robin Williams wasn't the Genie (even thought that was impossible) and then just used any slight negative since then to justify that stance. Then Disney shot themselves in the foot with that Grammy TV spot as it allowed people to go "look the Genie's terrible just like we thought" even though Smith does a good job in the movie. And then packing 3 remakes into a year (4 if you count the Maleficent sequel, 5 if you count Lady and the Tramp on Disney+). Personally I think Aladdin does enough different to be enjoyed on its own, but there's that many remakes critics will rightly call Disney on the originality of these.

I think Cinema Score and Word of Mouth still have a chance of being good. It's enjoyable and the leads are good. It's a shame about RT (especially after it started so high) but I agree, there's a world beyond it that Disney now have to reach.

I've loved most of the marketing as well. The recent teaser/TV spot blitz has been very good. I think they could have picked a better part of Prince Ali, or a longer clip to show the build better. Honestly though, A Whole New World would probably have been a safer choice. Audiences lapped that up in the main trailer and the teasers with that iconic score seem to have gone down well.

I would love to see it hit a billion. It was my favourite movie as a kid and honestly I think this is my favourite of the remakes (yes Jungle Book is the better movie, but I had more fun at Aladdin). But looking at the projections I just can't see it. Would love to be surprised but I think things are looking more in the 500-700 million range. The low end of that would be really bad, higher end would still be a respectable result, which I think it deserves.

Speechless is fine. It's arguably not the best fit with the classic songs, but Menken weaves the melody in throughout the score so it doesn't feel like it's out of place or coming out of no where.

Smith was arguably the best big name to play Genie. He's not Robin but he doesn't try to be, which is a good thing. Trying to copy Robin would have been a disaster. I can't think of another big name that would have been a better fit for the part. That said, if Disney was being brave they would have gone with James Monroe Iglehart.