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Discussion Episode IX Box Office Discussion

Discussion in 'Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker - IX: SA' started by Marathonjedi77, Dec 27, 2017.

  1. Darth Buzz

    Darth Buzz Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Jun 25, 2018
    Pretty sure it’s a low budget film. It’s not expected to be a box office monster
     
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  2. Obironsolo

    Obironsolo Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Feb 7, 2005
    ^
    Actually IMDB estimates the budget at $40 million, which is not really a low budget movie. A $40 million dollar movie usually has a promotional budget of at least $20 million, so now we are at $60 million. A movie usually has to make about 2.5 times its cost in order to break even. So it needs to do about $150 million world wide to break even. Now considering it has Chris Evans and Daniel Craig in the cast, I guess the studio took a chance. We'll see...

    Murder on the Orient Express did about 350 million world wide. It could make it, but I doubt it.
     
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2019
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  3. starfish

    starfish Force Ghost star 4

    Registered:
    Oct 9, 2003
    So if it doesn’t make 350 world wide it’s a bomb at the box office?

    I don’t know, I’m not personally the biggest RJ fan even though I liked TLJ well enough, so I don’t really care what it makes but the trailer seemed decent enough. Seems like 200-250 would be a reasonable expectation.
     
  4. Obironsolo

    Obironsolo Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Feb 7, 2005
    ^
    No not at all. I was just throwing out an example of how much another murder mystery with a large cast recently made. When I said "it could make it", I meant $150.

    Again, the movie could be great, and then it may easily make its money back. I don't think it's a good trailer, but others will disagree. Time will tell.
     
  5. Alliyah Skywalker

    Alliyah Skywalker Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2017
    A shot at the ww record? Absolutely no way. You need China for 2 Billion. And ep 9 will maybe make 10 million total there, not 600+.

    A shot at domestic record over TFA? Not happening either. You can't recreate that massive hype.
     
  6. Darth Smurf

    Darth Smurf Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    Dec 22, 2015
    I would not say it bombs because of the trailer but I found it a bit strange that the music in the beginning reminded me a bit on a TLJ trailer followed by mentioning that it is from the guy that made TLJ and Looper.
    The cast is great, however the whole thing looked a bit semi funny and hyped up.
    Let's see - It should at least be able to beat Book of Henry at the B.O..
     
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2019
  7. ChrisLyne

    ChrisLyne Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Oct 29, 2002
    I'm really crossing my fingers for this one! If Aladdin can hit a billion (not impossible but would be a major stretch for it even with these legs) then I think it would be the surprise hit of year. Ok, it already is, but no one was predicting a billion even before the backlash started. Would be an amazing success story.

    Seeing Spidey on Friday. Still need to fit in MIB and TS4 before TLK hits. Can't believe the big IMAX near me is only doing Spidey in 3D for 3 days (Tuesday-Thursday), not even the full opening weekend before switching just to 2D. I guess 3D really is dead now.
     
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  8. Darth Smurf

    Darth Smurf Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    Dec 22, 2015
    No one predicted even close to a billion.
     
  9. KyleKartan

    KyleKartan Jedi Master star 2

    Registered:
    Feb 4, 2004
    That proofs to me that those backlashes and ****storms over some Trailers which only give us glimpse of the actual product isnt justfyed at all or has any reason. Waiting for the final film to judge over it makes way more sense.
     
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  10. jedijax

    jedijax Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    May 2, 2013
    $39-$40 OD for Spidey FFH.

    Btw, Aladdin has not logged in more $1 million days than EG and will continue through Sunday, giving it 45 days, the same as TFA.
     
  11. zackm

    zackm Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 22, 2015
    The music at the beginning reminded me of the Rogue One teaser.
     
  12. ChrisLyne

    ChrisLyne Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Oct 29, 2002
    Not sure what this means (sorry!) Is it good or bad?
     
  13. Alliyah Skywalker

    Alliyah Skywalker Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2017
    I think that was a typo and "not" is supposed to be "now", meaning Aladdin has now this many days still over a million. Endgame burned out faster but in fairness, it wasn't summer weekdays back then. Still, Aladdin has great legs, the movie this year to beat the negative hype odds. All the other ones with meh press did bomb.
     
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  14. jedijax

    jedijax Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    May 2, 2013
    @Alliyah Skywalker and @ChrisLyne DAMN the NOT is supposed to be NOW. Sorry! Totally changes its meaning with that one letter (and the W is not even next to the T lol).

    Aladdin has NOW made over a million every single day since its release which puts it past Endgame and on its way to tying TFA which is an absolutely amazing run. For a movie that will end up under $400 million, it's probably the highest # of days over $1 million.
     
  15. MagnarTheGreat

    MagnarTheGreat Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Jul 21, 2016
    current stats
    Avengers: Endgame (sequel):
    2.36 first weekend multiplier; 23 days (out of 67) to 90% domestic total
    Aladdin (first entry): 3.37 first weekend multiplier; 29 days (out of 39) to 90% domestic total

    Not to diminish Aladdin - cause that's having a great run regardless - but Endgame is the third sequel for a sub-series in a massive cinematic universe, has the biggest domestic opening ever, which contributes to frontloading (April is also the most frontloaded month of the calendar). Aladdin doesn't have that handicap and it's a musical as well, and when those take off they seem to do better than non-musical first entry movies. Lion King's the next one up. Then there's Frozen 2 later in the year.
     
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2019
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  16. ChrisLyne

    ChrisLyne Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Oct 29, 2002
    Thanks @jedijax! That's not something I've seen tracked before. That's an incredible run!! I know we can all wonder what if, and front loading it may have made it perform differently, but you have to imagine Disney are wondering what it could have done without the divisive early marketing and with a more favorable release slot.
     
  17. MagnarTheGreat

    MagnarTheGreat Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Jul 21, 2016
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Marvel Cinematic Universe (click to enlarge)
    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2019
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  18. Oissan

    Oissan Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Mar 9, 2001
    Um, yes, 40m is a low budget movie. Apart from horror movies you will have a hard time finding noteworthy releases that come in at that rate, apart from the odd comedy / fluff entertainment piece.

    You also can't just add something and then add the same stuff on top of it again. The idea that you need to clear 2.5 times the cost already includes marketing costs, that's what makes it 2.5 instead of 2 times. So your figure would be 100m worldwide, not 150m.
    Not that the idea that movies need to make 2 or 2.5 times the costs to break is really true either. It's an old guideline that people throw around for reference, but it is hardly true when looking at the actual numbers. It's also not about breaking even, but about breaking even purely from box office revenue. There are all sorts of rebates you can get, depending on where you shoot, etc. And then there is revenue beyond the theaters, which means that the number you need to hit at the box office to break even when everything is included is a whole lot lower than two times the budget.
     
  19. AhsokaSolo

    AhsokaSolo Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    Dec 23, 2015
    There's more to factor in than just marketing costs. The studio doesn't get 100% of the box office. When you're looking at worldwide figures, they get less than they get domestically. On a $40 million budget, not including marketing, it doesn't seem to me that $100 million WW would break even.
     
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2019
    Alliyah Skywalker likes this.
  20. Obironsolo

    Obironsolo Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Feb 7, 2005
    Actually the common rule for whether it's "low budget" is anything under $2.1 million. Anything below $400,000 is considered "micro-budget."

    Here is a list of fairly recent movies with budgets listed at $40 million or less:
    Fifty Shades of Grey, The Proposal, John Wick 2 & 3, American Hustle, Social Network, Lucy, The Intern, Hacksaw Ridge, Rock Star, The Hurricane, Game Night, The Blindside, It, Saving Mr. Banks, Trainwreck

    Those are low budget movies?
     
  21. jedijax

    jedijax Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    May 2, 2013
  22. chris hayes

    chris hayes Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Nov 13, 2012
    Very True :p
     
  23. I Are The Internets

    I Are The Internets Force Ghost star 9

    Registered:
    Nov 20, 2012
    It's crazy how successful Aladdin is. Weren't we all predicting months ago it would bomb?
     
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  24. MagnarTheGreat

    MagnarTheGreat Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Jul 21, 2016
  25. ChrisLyne

    ChrisLyne Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Oct 29, 2002
    My only wish list for Ariel was an unknown who could sing so I'm happy with the casting. I like that they've gone with an unknown again as it tends to mean they've gone with the best actor for the part (like they did with Mena Massoud and Naomi Scott in Aladdin) than with someone who's a big name. I think they learnt that with Beauty and the Beast. Yes, a big name or two might help (again, like Will Smith in Aladdin) but Disney's The Little Mermaid will be an infinitely bigger draw than "celebrity x as Ariel", especially if celebrity x can't sing. They just about got away with it with Emma Watson (though your mileage may vary on that), but they needed someone who could truly sing for Ariel.

    And since we have a black Ariel, I'm crossing everything that they get Norm Lewis back to play King Triton. He played the part on stage and I just loved him in the role, and his voice is fantastic.
     
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