ST Episode IX Box Office Discussion

The boxoffice trajectory of the OT puts TLJ in its proper perspective (granted, not adj. for inflation).

The percentage change from ANH —> ESB is almost exactly that of TFA —> TLJ

$307m - $209m (-32%) / $937m - $620m (-34%)

ROTJ did 21% better than ESB in nominal dollars. A comparable performance for Ep IX would be roughly $750m. Definitely feasible.

 

IX is starting from a bigger hole than ROTJ and ROTS had to start from because SW had more years worth of re-releases. TLJ ended the trend where each Star Wars episode opened to more than its preceding episode even with the cliffhanger of TFA and the Luke hype going into TLJ. The marketing campaign for IX will have to conjure up its own hype as it won't be able to rely on TFA's ending (for TLJ) or 32 years of post-ROTJ hype (for TFA) to do it, and it's easy to see one of the scenarios where Episode IX opens <$220M and needs a higher multiplier just to stay flat with TLJ. One of things IX has going for it is 4 years of ticket price inflation over TFA and 2 years of ticket price inflation over TLJ for a little boost. The 2.82 December multiplier for TLJ was terrible even for a sequel (only Star Trek: Nemesis was worse) but December is still a boosted environment so that getting a multiplier higher than 2.82 should not be impossible, but it's not going to be as high as TFA's. A hypothetical opening of $205.4M for Episode IX with a multiplier of 3.02 keeps IX flat with TLJ at $620M, for example. If it opened to $205M and got a halfway/average multiplier (3.3) between TFA and TLJ that would take IX to $676.5M which would be Avengers: Infinity War territory.



If the December SW movies released in May like Solo and the rest of them instead of December, their multipliers would have been lower and their opening weekends larger. Avengers Infinity War (April) probably wouldn't hold the record like it does now.

 

And also the drop off from TPM ( $431 mill ) to AOTC ( $302 mill ) was -30% so all very close historically and the third movie of the 2 previous trilogies has bounced back so $750 mill domestic is very much on going by history also meaning $1.6 billion worldwide is also a good possibility............

 

@jedijax

Was just going to post that since i just watch it with my headphones on after our dept meeting LOL! Very good first trailer. Really cool retro look to it (god how scary is that to say given it takes place in 1995ish!) with the CGI Fury and Coulson looking great. Brie looks right for the role just as I expected and the trailer teased enough of a story to get us intrigued. I am not a huge fan of true origin stories but someone like Captain Marvel might need it.

 

Definitely a teaser and very distinguishable from a full trailer. Not a lot of information. Was expecting some awesome 90's music lol.

They've said this is an unconditional origin story. This movie looks to start with her as a superhero and then have flashbacks that tell how she got to where she is. It's like what many of us are wanting for Rey TBQH.

And so the onslaught of teasers/trailers begins! Hopefully we'll get teasers for Avengers 4, Aladdin, Toy Story 4, Spiderman Far From Home, and Lion King before the year's out.

 

Off topic but either Aladdin or Lion King will get pushed to 2020. Would be very surprised if they both released this year. Disney stands a good chance of cannibalizing itself next year and 2020 is relatively sparse. If it moves Lion King to 2020 it stands a good chance of winning that years boxoffice crown. Infinity War and Episode IX (yay, back on topic) will anchor 2019. Those $700m+ behomeths...

 

I thought that was crappy first trailer/teaser. It felt more about Samuel L. Jackson talking about the Captain Marvel movie than it felt about Captain Marvel herself. I would like to know why I should care about Captain Marvel, other than Samuel L. Jackson telling me to.

 

@jedijax

Avengers 4 teaser trailer I think will follow Infinity War when it comes to marketing and will get it around the end of November. The only caveat I throw to that is what I wrote in another thread. I think it could be a big boom for Lucasfilm to release a very teaser trailer for Episode IX on Black Friday mirroring what they did for TFA. Yes it's a year out and you do not want to start your media campaign too soon but i think it be beneficial in that it show Lucasfilm is very confident in the picture and is willing to give a very very small sneak peak into it. But i doubt that will happen as I don't think will get any trailer until SW Celebration in April next year therefore Avengers 4 trailer should drop the week after Thanksgiving or somewhere around there. The rest I am really clueless on except you figure Dumbo will be coming around the holidays since that is slated for the end of March. Perhaps January of next year.

@dolphin

Yeah I be shocked if all those films were released in 2019. Disney has six potential major movie events next year but not much in 2020 though I keep forgetting that Fox will most likely be under their umbrella by then so perhaps they are keeping their typical Disney/Pixar/Marvel/Lucasfilms movies down that year so that they could use 2020 to launch their Fox vehicles under them starting with Avatar 2.

@La Calavera

I respectfully disagree, I thought it was a very solid trailer. They want to keep her story/background a mystery as it will play a major theme throughout the film (and in other movies as well similar to Peter Quill) and showed us how much Carol will be confused for much of this movie. In regards to Fury, remember he is been in how many MCU films now. He really is kinda our guide to this, our window into this world. You can argue that Fury is almost one of the narrators for it. So I didn't have a problem with Fury telling us about CM since he almost a storyteller at this point, he has been around so long.

On a separate note, I do feel like what CM is going to be is what Lucasfilm envisioned for Rey. I just think MCU will do a lot better job with it.

 

If anything is going to change, it will be Aladdin. I've read multiple sources saying that they are doing extensive reshoots. Not sure how 100% reliable the sources are about the reasons, but I've also read that Disney wasn't totally excited about the look.

Haven't heard anything about LK other than the stuff they showed at that Cinemacon was amazing.

 

@jedijax

Yeah out of all the Disney remakes of timless classic into live action films, seems like Aladdin is having the most issues. Be a great candidate to move especially with Dumbo already coming out in March of next year to say nothing of Toy Story 4 and The Lion King. That is a ton of family oriented movies in a short span. At least one of them has to be moved IMHO. Again Aladdin makes the most sense.

Big news in Bond World, the Broccolis have hired the first American director for that franchise in Cary Fukunaga. It's kinda a big gamble given Cary's never done a big budget action film but a lot of his work is outstanding so overall I think he is a good hire.

 

2.3 Billion WORLDWIDE

 

@jedijax

Looks like Disney is throwing everything out there in 2019 knowing they can move them to their streaming site quickly in order to boost sales.

The Force Awakens did $2.068 billion worldwide and was one of the most anticipated films of all time.

Good luck with that one, I hope for Star Wars sake it's correct and we all basking in the glow of a victorious Episode IX.

 

If they do everything right and market it really well, Episode IX should theoretically be able to at least match TFA. Not only is it the conclusion to the Sequel Trilogy, but it's also the conclusion to the episodic Skywalker Saga.

 

Agreed they have to get it all right ,

1. JJ nails a great movie
2. Doesn't go over budget
3. All things on the set got well & no issues
4. Great trailers & timed well
5. Marketed well as the conclusion to what JJ started & the conclusion to the episode Skywalker saga
6. Use Luke , Leia & Lando in a lot of marketing panda to the OT fans
7. 95% on RT will also help

If all this goes to plan where looking at a good comeback from TLJ however I still think because of the backlash to TLJ & Solo's poor performance we are looking at :

$195 mill OW & $725 mill domestic ,

$1.60 Billion world wide ........

 

No. 4 is the key.

 

95 % audience score YES.

 

And of course that will do wonders too

 

Just hearing some people talk (casual fans) I doubt 9 even matches 8. A lot of people saying they can see it at home later after 8 was a letdown for them. I think the direction they went with Luke really pushed some buttons with many casual fans.

 

Any drop off from old casual fans will likely be made up for by the new ones. I've been talking with a younger guy who really came into Star Wars around the Prequel era...so the treatment of Luke dosen't matter as much to him and others like him. In fact he's excited that elements of the prequel trilogy could end up in the final movie. Then there are the fans who started with TFA, a younger set but they still clearly want to see how this all ends.

 

I think the larger amount of time between Solo and 9 will help at the box office, but it boils down to fan reaction if it will have legs or not.

 

I don't know about there being enough new fans to overtake the supposed migiration of old fans for Episode IX and beyond. It might happen, I want it to but it seems like while Star Wars as their fans among the younger genearation, the ones driving the franchise still are the older fans. This is different then Marvel IMHO who seems to really have universal appeal among age groups. It also seems that Marvel as the younger fans much more then Star Wars right now. Not that both cannot be popular among younger generations, just seems like out of two...Marvel as way more younger fans then Star Wars right now. It might sound crazy but I think Disney has a lot riding on shows like Rebels and Resistance. Clearly those are made for little kids though adults can enjoy them (they are actually my favorite Disney led SW content so far) but if Disney has a couple hit Star Wars cartoons with little kids, that could pay huge dividend in the next decade even the ST continues to have "angst" around it.

@Ubraniff Zalkaz

- Marketing
- Lucasfilm Public Relations
- Quality/Fan Reaction

Those will be the three keys going into Episode IX. If Lucasfilm can do a good job with all three (and they have the ability to do so) then I think Episode IX will make what is expected (around $700-800 million domestically and $1.5-1.6 billion worldwide) and TLJ angst/fallout along with the fiasco that was Solo could be nothing more then a very minor blip in the radar. If they don't, then it could struggle to follow the pattern of the trilogies and a bad growing trend will continue.

 

It would be a pretty sad state of affairs if so many people were turned off by TLJ and don't even want to give IX a chance to see how it all plays out. It's repeat business that has been a concern and will be for IX. I expect people who have seen the first 2 to come and see IX at least.

 

I totally disagree. With the prequels it didn't happen even if ROTS obtained better reviews. Also, TFA was a BO monster.
Don't think as a fan, you're part of a minority. Whoever is not a hardcore fan couldn't care less about what we see as the "Skywalker saga" imo. I bet half of the viewers won't even remember who's Maz Kanata.
I think it will not pass 1.6 b worldwide.