ST Episode IX Box Office Discussion

I suppose that depends on where you fall in the "is it live-action or animation?" debate. PersonalIy consider it animation rendered in a hyper realistic style, similar to how some artists do portraits of people you'd be hard pressed to distinguish from a photograph. Those are still drawings.

So no, it's not the first.

 

I'm honestly in shock at that RT score. I mean, I knew the knives were likely out for Aladdin but I figured Lion King would be safe from the "we hate Disney remakes" mentality the critics have developed this year. So for TLK to fall like this suggests to me that the film really failed to connect with a lot of critics.

I still can't believe they (seemingly) made the animals less expressive than in Jungle Book. That film got the balance pretty much perfect. I added the seemingly because I haven't seen the film yet, but that Hakuna Matata clip combined with it being mentioned in near enough all the reviews is pretty damning.

Not sure about a mandate, but the support for the general idea of Disney remakes is definitely dead with critics. If critics were going to give any film a pass for being a remake it was Lion King. TLM needs to find that balance that Jungle Book did, true to the heart of the original story and characters but finding its own voice for a fresh take. Mulan looks to be doing just that so I expect that will be better reviewed. In fact I think it will be very interesting to see how critics and audiences react to Mulan.

Definitely too early. We need to see what WOM is like after opening weekend. Aladdin got it's staying power because it had a lot of heart and charm. TLK will open much bigger, but if audiences feel the same disconnect as critics then that really threatens to cut off its legs.

Yeah, Aladdin definitely had the underdog thing going on because almost everyone expected it to fail. TLK everyone expected a massive success so it's coming from a very different starting point. Maybe getting these reviews a week out will lower expectations and give it a little of that underdog element, but I'm not counting on it.

I think @jedijax said before that Aladdin's criticisms were relatively vague (beyond the "we're fed up of Disney remakes thing") whilst Lion King's are all very focused on the "too real"/"too emotionless" thing. Audiences won't be scared away by the reviews, but if they feel the same then that will hurt WOM and repeat viewings which is where Aladdin has thrived.

Agreed. The film is only in trouble if you count only making $1-1.4 billion instead of $1.5-2 billion as in trouble. It could certainly leave money on the table but it's still going to be one of the biggest films of the year. This just means it potentially drops out of the race, leaving TROS and Frozen 2 to battle it out for #2 and #3 domestically and world wide. It certainly helps TROS. Depending on audience reaction of course.

Agreed. This is one of those weird situations where it will still make more money that Aladdin, but Aladdin will be seen as a massive over achiever and a success story whilst TLK will be seen as a mild disappointment (assuming it doesn't break out with good/great WOM). Because it all comes down to what expectations were.

I really want this to be great. I've said before that Disney were likely hiding the talking and singing animals because of the insane level of backlash Genie got. Seems like they were right to be worried. Hopefully what didn't work for critics works fine for the general audience, but I have a feeling this is going to be a much bigger divide than anyone expected.

 

After listening to the soundtrack and seeing some clips, I can't help but feel some of the "voice" actors were horribly miscast, which is sad because if you are going to do a "live-action" remake that's really just CGI, you have to make sure your cast is amazing and captivates you with emotion (especially when the realistic animation isn't). I was really looking forward to this one since TLK is my favorite Disney movie, but I am just not excited for this anymore.

 

Feels like to me that if Aladdin had failed at the BO the TLK would have fared better with critics. I know that's not the case, but it feels like "we have another shot at taking out these remakes".
Still puzzled by SUCH a low score. That's scathing. That's a message. But the specific concerns about the film which are that they couldn't even bring the voicing and animation to the level of TJB makes it seem like they rushed it.

 

The big criticism (ignoring the "it's a remake" stuff) is the photorealistic animals not connecting on an emotional level. It's not that it was rushed, more a case of a creative choice that hasn't connected (at least with critics) the way Disney hoped it would. Whether or not in connects with audiences is the important hurdle. That's the difference between a massive opening weekend and then big drop off or massive opening weekend followed by good legs. Repeat viewings depend on it making that connection.

Most likely it will be somewhere in between. It's not a train wreck (it's a very safe adaptation by all accounts), so it won't dive bomb off a cliff like BvS did. But equally sounds like it doesn't have the heart and charm to get repeat business in the way Aladdin did, especially being much more front loaded.

 

OMG ...

... I see it now. I can't believe that I didn't before. Disney is paying critics to trash TLK in a grand game of 5D chess to get everyone on board with the changes to Mulan and stave off #nomushuispoopoo. **** you Disney !!!!!!

 

@ChrisLyne but they did it so well with Jungle Book. Hell, they did it pretty well with 2005 Narnia. If they couldn't "do it" with TLK in terms of anthromorphic animals, what the hell are they going to do with a fish and crab? Crabs don't even have the same mouth structure.

 

They could have done TLK the same as they did Jungle Book. Favreau chose not to and pushed for greater realism instead. It's not a failing of the technology, it's a creative choice in how to use the technology.

Honestly not sure what direction they'll go with Sebastian and Flounder. Hopefully more animated rather than realistic. We're dealing with fantasy creatures in TLM so hopefully they won't feel as confined by a need to be "real".

 

Thing is, Jungle Book was realistic enough. It was pleasantly so. And the animals all had personality. They actually opened their mouths and each letter in each word was articulated Maybe it's not as bad a we think in TLK (has anyone seen it?) but JEEZ those clips almost became hard to watch. What I kept saying over and over again is "they are holding back and in the film they will surprise us" but then more and more clips came out. I then said "maybe this will be like Prince Ali clip and in context it will work". I will find out next week. Until then, the clips are all we have. Oh, and the critics ratings which reinforce the concerns.

Remember, with Aladdin, the RT reveal was 71% (until it started falling which happened JUST as the move did well). TLK's reveal was 57%. And for Aladdin, the negative reviews did not reinforce ANY of the concerns felt during the marketing.

But all of this may actually help extend Aladdin's legs.

I think TLK will miss $600 million domestic. It seemed destined for $700 million + considering the presales trends. But that could just be my tendency toward hyperbole.

 

Oh I agree, I thought they were done perfectly in Jungle Book. All I was meaning was that the direction they've gone in TLK was a deliberate creative choice rather than anything to do with the technology being limited or rushed in some way. They could have done it the same as in TJB, they decided to go for even greater realism instead.

Not seen it yet (got lucky with Aladdin, not so lucky this time). The clips are hit and miss for me. Sometimes I think it works, sometimes it comes across as narrative voice over rather than animals talking. Mouths moving is not lip sync and it definitely feels off. I'm hoping that once I'm watching the film and caught up in the story it will work. Based on the clips it will be hit and miss at best, but Aladdin taught us not to judge based on that.

I remember! In fact I think the UK reviews (which were more positive) hit first and it started on RT in the 80s before the official reveal at 71. Sadly it dropped more from there.

I think there were one or two reviews that mentioned the Genie CG not being fantastic (which was obviously the big concern after that Grammy TV spot), but yeah, "it's a remake" aside, Aladdin's reviews had a broader range of smaller criticisms rather than all pointing out the same specific flaw.

$600 million all depends on legs. It's going to open big, I don't think the reviews will affect that in any significant way, but it will need legs to get to $600m and that depends on good WOM and repeat viewings. Reading BOT and dvdizzy, from the handful of people who have seen it the opinion seems to be it's good but Aladdin was more enjoyable. So yeah, maybe it could help Aladdin's legs a little if those some of those potential repeat views go to Aladdin instead.

 

Your post declared the "re-release" as basically big, humiliating failure - after that first weekend. Everyone knows why Disney "re-released" the movie, I never said differently but it is still premature to gloat about its success or failure to surpass Avatar. The movie isn`t out of theaters yet and domestically, it absolutely got a nice late push. What did you expect it to do from that weekend until now to think it was a successful enough push? Ten million more?

It never would have gotten up to the number it is now without it. The movie`s PTA is reasonably good and it keeps holding onto screens. Do you really think if it comes within 7-8 million of Avatar`s final gross, Disney will go "oh, well, we tried this once but now we totally give up"? Seriously? They can try again, within this year.

While I wouldn`t bet 100 % on it just yet but I do believe the very fact that Disney has shown that they want the record means they will get it. The gap isn`t unreasonable anymore.

If it does, will you still go with the "it was totallly a fail" rhetoric?

 

Heh, TLK's going to do megabucks, that much is assured. Same as tRoS.

 

No doubts there. It's just a question of how much. Some thought it had a shot at Endgame, or was at least a lock for #2 but that could be in question now.

 

Critics are the last thing I am paying attention when going to watch a film, especially these days. Many times they already have a predetermined narrative going into the film before even watching. This is why I am a bit fearful for TROS, as I think that critics want to jump on the film after being "too nice" to the previous two. Even if its the best Star Wars film ever, I could see critics attacking.

 

Critics are melding between what they see in a film and why the film is being made. They've known for a while that TLK was going to be at least nearly a shot by shot duplicate. That was the intention of it. And it looks pretty darn good. I've seen some other clips and the mouths are not as bad as I thought. However, the negative critics already has their claws read to pounce and were waiting like hyenas (pardon the puns). Same with Dumbo. Same with Aladdin (and those were not shot by shot). It was as if after Jungle Book, they had already had enough. BatB started it and then it just spiraled (even though 2018 had none of them yet NO non-Marvel live action films made it out of the low 70's). So these films seemed doomed from the start and the critics already made up their minds. Why do I say that? Because TLK's intentions were the main thing that has been bashed. The main reason people are going to see these movies are the reasons many critics are hating them.

It's like bashing a new pizza place or coffee shop for being just another pizza place or coffee shop. The coffee is decent. The pizza is pretty good. Nothing wrong with it, but we have too many. So let's give them bad reviews for just being what they are supposed to be in the first place. Problem is, when people try to open a new type of restaurant (new stories) in an expensive area (movie theater-major label) and every time it happens, it closes down in 3-6 months (bombs) nobody is going to try to open a new restaurant in that area. They will simply go elsewhere to do it where it might cost less. (ehem, streaming, ehem).

 

The Lion King
60%
TOMATOMETER

 

TROS will have a bigger box office than TLJ, but still not as much as TFA (same as the PT and OT). I also imagine the reviews will be good, but not quite as good as the preceding films. People with too much time on their hands will use this as proof that Disney killed the franchise, and even weirder people will start up the "Disney pays critics" train again.

 

Disney doesn't pay critics - why would it need to? All the critics anyone cares about work for major media entities. Given that Disney now control a huge percentage of blockbuster films made in Hollywood, these media entities need to maintain a good relationship with Disney if they want access to stars for interviews etc. Film critics also don't want to see cinema die - excoriating the films that keep cinema (as a go to the film theatre phenomenon) alive is in nobody's interest, commercially or philosophically. Everyone has a vested interested in maintaining the status quo. It's no conspiracy, it's not shocking, it's not worth getting upset about - but it is the way the world works, and it's good to be aware of it.

 

Well, that's obvious to most people. Others would rather make up reasons as to why critics felt differently about a film than they did.

 

Been reading about the "uncanny valley" and realize that THIS is the reason Favreau went the direction he did. Bad choice. Nobody had a problem with TJB. It soared and got an incredible review rating. But the question is whether that film was truly a family film like TLK is. Would kids have been spooked if TLK shows more emotional expression?

I say no. It has backfired in terms of reviews. We'll see what happens with the BO. I'm calling anything less than $190 million OW to be a disappointment. $180-$189 a minor disappointment. Less than $180 million OW a major disappointment.

 

There were a lot of folks in here screaming for this to be bigger than Endgame not too long ago, LOL

 

Well the question is how much of a hit in OW and overall will this film take due to reviews? We'll never know but there will be suppositions. No matter what it makes, people will claim that it would have made much more money if it had better reviews. And likewise people will claim that it would have better reviews if this or that choice was made for the movie's production.

 

I think its still gong to make a lot of money. It will be interesting to see if it or Frozen 2 get that 3rd spot for the year.

 

Or 2nd

 

I've had TROS locked in at that spot since the beginning of the year, and so far everything that has transpired this year has given me no reason to change that. In all honesty, my confidence has only increased. I have it in the 1.4B ballpark, and I only see LK and F2 at 1.3B at best for each.