ST Episode IX Box Office Discussion

At least the movie devision of SONY...indeed.

Honestly: Venom was ok...but it earned beyond what its worth from my judgment. And it wasnt very true to the Comics. Imagine a REAL VENOM in the MCU...what would they do him! Would be fantastic!

Amy Pascale for me does make very poor choices, she has a history (female Ghostbusters). Morbius sure is one of those.

 

I don't see why anyone would think that the Spider-Man adjacent characters doing poorly would be beneficial towards the rights to Spider-Man passing back to Marvel. Sony is not going to sell the rights back either way. They don't have an abundance of franchise properties like Disney does. Movies like Morbius failing without Spider-Man would just mean Sony would be more likely to insist on having Spider-Man in them to raise interest. And Marvel isn't going to devote enough of their creative assests to making movies for Sony more frequently than one every couple of years without getting a significant cut of the box office, which would defeat the purpose for Sony.

Those movies being able to stand on their own is probably one of the secondary considerations in extending their arrangement with Marvel.

 

Projections for 2019 domestic:

Endgame - $850m+
TLK - $680m+
TROS - $620m+
Frozen - $460m
Toy Story 4 - $395m
Aladdin - $355m
Spidey - $355m

Incidentally these 7 are also all Disney movies (I’m counting FFH as Disney for obvious reasons)

IT: Part Two may make an appearance but unlikely. Novelty factor won’t be as strong.

Disney blew its load for 2019. 2020 wont be as strong but then again there’s not much coming out of the other studios either.

 

decent predictions......I'm thinking Lion King and SW9 a bit less and Frozen 2 a bit more.

 

I agree with TheDutchman. I think that TLK will take a hit due to the reviews which are very specific (as opposed to Aladdin's which were not). Hard to say about TROS. We'll really have to get a pulse in the fall. Frozen 2 should be bigger than $460 million but there's been a LOT of "should've could've would've" this year"

TS4 will end up over $400 million. Going by the patterns of I2, FD, and TS3, it would be close to the latter's number. Not sure how much different. I'd say $410-$420 million for TS4.

At this point, Aladdin's numbers look right. And Spidey may end up higher than $355 million.

 

According to Deadline, Toy Story 4 had a massive $15.4 million opening this weekend in Japan. Also had a best animated opening ever in Hong Kong with $4.6 million. While it is fading in some markets and it may not surpass Toy Story 3's overall domestic gross, TS4 will make up for it in Japan. It's worth noting that TS3 made $126.6 million in Japan. Even if it gets 70% of that, it will help to push TS4 hit a billion mark. I predict it will end it's run with $1.1 billion. Currently at $771 Million. Yet to open at Germany.

Aladdin at $960 Million Overall now. Adding another $40 million to its total. Actually, it did not drop much overseas. I did predict that Aladdin would cross 1 billion before the release (albeit 20/80 share - something like Fate of the Furious did). I am glad it is slowing getting there because it deserves it.

 

Hard to predict this far out but I think TROS will go above TLK. Assuming TROS is a crowd pleaser like TFA then it depends if audiences see the same flaw as critics in TLK. Aladdin won audiences over with three very likable and charming leads who had great chemistry together (plus just being a LOT of fun). If the audiences pick up on the emotional disconnect in TLK that critics did then that hurts the repeat views it will need to top TROS. If they don't it will be a much closer race.

Frozen II will be higher. How much higher depends on how good it is, but the teasers look very promising. Whether or not it can come close to topping TLK depends very much on how audiences receive TLK this week.

Right now I'm thinking

Endgame
TROS
TLK

as the top 3. But Frozen II does have an outside shot at causing an upset there. Worldwide probably about the same (I think it will be closer WW due to Star Wars not being big in China, but whilst I originally thought TLK might top TROS worldwide, I have revised by expectations for TLK down a bit in the wake of reviews and comments from people who have seen it).

 

Toy Story 4 @qui-gon-chan is already close to $350 million domestically therefore I think it's going to wind up right around Toy Story 3's $415 million domsestic mark give or take a few million here or there. Again Toy Story 4 is going to go down as the first movie ever to do a $400/1 billion+ split and be considered a "disappointment" in some circles.

And at this point @ChrisLyne the biggest question IMHO really is which movie non-Disney product of some sort (and I consider Spidey to be part of the Disney family because yes while he is Sony property/distributor it's still being produced by Marvel Studios) will be the highest grossing this year? Because as of right now we could see the list wind up something like this domestically being the Top 8:

1. End Game
2. The Rise of Skywalker
3. The Lion King
4. Frozen 2
5. Captain Marvel
6. Toy Story 4
7. Aladdin
8. Spidey Far From Home

I mean we might not see a non-Disney film (or afflication) crack the Top 10 until #9 which could be perhaps It: Chapter 2 or Jumanji 3. We all knew Disney would just dominate this year at the box office but I must admit I did not see it being this insanely one sided.

 

Endgame will pass Avatar. It's less than $7 million away. With it hitting $2 million this past weekend, domestically, it will easily be able to muster up another $4 million domestically at least. Internationally, $3 million more will be a breeze. And it will do it soon. So we will have a new champion WW.

 

Congratulations on a cheap victory.

 

How is it cheap? Both Avatar and Titanic had several "re-issues". So did other "box office champs" especially E.T. & A New Hope. Heck A New Hope was "relaunch" in May 1978 to try and squeeze a few more dollars out of it during it's original run. IMHO if we call End Game a cheap victory then all the others are cheap victories too including A New Hope for using the same tactics to overtake Jaws.

 

Avatar became the highest grossing movie without a re-release. Yes, it was re-released in theaters, but after it already became the champion. Endgame being re-released only after 2 months is a desperate move on Disney's part. At the end of the day only hard core box office buffs will care about this. The average movie goer probably doesn't care at all who holds the record. Avatar didn't last long in the pop culture consciousness despite holding the title. This record is something Disney can brag about. That's it.

 

I say $395m for TS4 because I predict 45% declines for the film from here on out due to Lion King’s direct impact. It declined 38% last weekend.

 

Avatar also did it using the 3-D multiplier and the most incredible exchange rate in history. And again they also re-released it so it's no biggie as End Game never left the theater and came back mind you. So really what are we really complaining about? It doesn't even really matter in the grand scheme of things at all. The biggest question now is when will a film ever reach $3 billion worldwide?

 

Avatar did an incredible $ 204 mill in China in 2009 and the expansion in cinema theatres in China are massive since then. Thats why i think Avatar 2 will be to the first movie to make over $ 1 billon in one country when its released in 2021.

For Endgame - just fudge it Disney. Get it done. Nobody wants more of those useless end credit scenes either.
Will general audience care about that record now? No. They want to know what the plans are for new Marvel adventures.

 

They added new things to the movie. In order to do that they had to re-release the movie with new features. Why are you getting hung up on a technicality?

 

Again that was all done when the exchange rate was just incredible as the US dollar was in the toliet. Movies released over the past several years have dealt with a much stronger dollar therefore the exchange rate isn't as great. So Avatar 2 won't have that luxury when it comes out through who knows. Seems like Trump is all bent on ruining the US economy one way or the other long term so he can rich on taxpayers dime so I can easily see lightning striking twice in that sense!

 

I am not denying the exchange rate. We know that and if it had been as good for TFA as it was for Avatar, well then TFA would have climbed close to being WW nr one as well.

Anyway, records are meant to be broken, all the time. Maybe in 30, 40 years, the decline of cinema will put the brakes on new records- hope not, but chances are we all will be sitting in our sofa at home!

 

Many thought that SLOP2 and/or Detective Pikachu would be up there somewhere. Yeah-that worked out great lol.

Btw, anyone know what's going on with the BOT site?

 

No offense but there are some inaccuracies here. Yes, the exchange rate was more favorable back then but not by much. Back of the envelope calc would bring Avatar’s WW gross down to probably $2.5ish. Again, back of the envelope (taught college econ many moons ago but forgot most of it...lol).

However, when you adjust local currencies for inflation that propels Avatar through the stratosphere and it’s true WW gross is CERTAINLY over $3bn. The problem is that it’s IMPOSSIBLE (ok, very difficult) to know for sure. I’m comfortable with saying $3.3bn-ish.

PS: Not sure why there is so much animosity towards Avatar and why people try to discredit its success - gleefully highlighting reasons why $2.7bn in 2009 isn’t that big a deal. Not so much here but in forums elsewhere. *shrug*.

What is certain is that inching past Avatar’s WW total in 2009 does not actually mean it is no. 1 WW. I believe Titanic is actually #1 WW when you account for exchange rates and local currencies. Certainly it is the most widely attended film of all time. A record that will never be broken.


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Yep. Frozen did the same thing with their sing-a-long version. Oh..again, sorry for letting the team down re: Family Feud. I’ve gone through many hours of therapy dealing with that loss. I still think my answer made sense!


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