ST Episode IX Box Office Discussion

We could never beat Endgame WW because Star Wars has «Big trouble in little China» and is only «Big in Japan», while we all have a «Party in the U.S.A. So give it a rest eh? Nobody is expecting it, because its not possible.

Star Wars will still have the domestic crown going into the 2020s.

 

China (2018-2019 + Star Wars 2015-2018)
$614,316,021 Avengers: Endgame
$359,543,153 Avengers: Infinity War
$291,800,000 Aquaman
$269,196,633 Venom
$261,224,207 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
$198,999,549 Spider-Man: Far From Home
$197,056,493 Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw
$181,184,137 Mission Impossible: Fallout
$154,070,663 Captain Marvel
$124,159,138 Star Wars: The Force Awakens
$121,203,074 Ant-Man and the Wasp
$116,498,482 The Lion King
$105,062,459 Black Panther
$_78,497,836 Tomb Raider
$_77,946,567 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
$_69,484,899 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
$_57,300,000 Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
$_54,541,969 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
$_53,481,575 Aladdin
$_51,473,064 Incredibles 2
$_42,577,974 Star Wars: The Last Jedi
$_29,101,408 Toy Story 4
$_16,473,217 Solo: A Star Wars Story
numbers for current releases in China not final

 

Which is why I think they get maybe one more shot in China with the first new movie from the GOT-guys but if that doesn't connect, that's it for the foreseeable future.

TROS may get 10 million there. The 2 billion from TFA are far out of reach because it won't get 1.3 billion domestic.

 

Is Game of Thrones popular in China?

Their best hope/compromise is probably making a SW movie that's like Aquaman more than those other foreign popular movies in China, it gave me SW Prequel vibes anyway.

And a battle between Rey and Kylo in SW:TROS coincidentally looks like a certain battle in Aquaman a year prior...

 

The hardcore fan base might be small but they are what is now called by marketing and advertisers "influencers". Never underestimate the reach, value and worth of influencers to move markets, Madison Avenue does not.
For every $1 spent on influencer marketing, businesses are making $5.20 in earned media value.

These are the fans that show up for Celebrations
These are the fans that show up for Force Friday's
and These are the fans that line up and camp for weeks to watch TPM etc.....
These are the fans that show up in great numbers for Galaxies Edge... Oh wait..

These small group of fans CREATE news and BUZZ

If you don't have them on board your marketing campaigns can lose momentum which is where I feel TROS is right now.

Talk is cheap. I need facts, numbers, dates, places and dead bodies.

Disney's 2018 Annual Report Sees Star Wars In Decline
Posted by Thomas on January 14, 2019 at 11:04 AM
https://www.jeditemplearchives.com/2019-01-14-disneys-2018-annual-report-sees-star-wars-in-decline/

 

I still say they should release TROS in China - if Solo can get to $ 16 mill, TROS can get to $ 20, 25 mill maybe. Which still counts for the WW total. Disney should cancel the red carpet premiere blitz in Shanghai this time though and spend marketing money on other countries.

Disney titles outside of Marvel is doing bad business in China in general.

 

About GOT, I think so but I'm not 100 %.

In terms of building up SW there, they just need to build up characters that connect. The MCU did that in China. I watched some audience reaction vids for Endgame and the Chinese audiences reacted like every other, they cheered for the heroes, they gasped, they cried, they were obviously emotionally invested in Cap, Ironman et al.

Just being flashy works maybe once but it's no guarantee for longterm success. The derided X-Men Apocalypse worked well in China, Phoenix bombed even there. Apparently it was kind of a similar reaction to Luke in TLJ, just with the treatment of Xavier, a beloved characters.

It is a somewhat different culture but they have similar triggers and kinks to just about every other audience.

As the numbers show, they don't differentiate between Saga and non-Saga, each movie makes less than the previous one. So, I see half of Solo at best.

 

And in what many or most of us most care about, no, TFA isn't doing pretty well at #4, it's still unchallenged at #1 and hasn't taken any serious threats besides Endgame in the past 4 years, and Endgame was truly never on course after the first week actually. I really don't care about China padding box office stats for other franchises, I care about the domestic crown as has been customary for about 95% of the 100 years of Hollywood history (feature films). If I lived in Italy, I'd probably care more about what movies made in Italy, but I don't. I live in the country where movies are made and in that country TFA is #1.

It'll be a harsh awakening for the TLJ haters I'm afraid with December hits. The movie will be huge, because 90% of people enjoy Star Wars whatever it is, and they had no issues with TLJ. They could almost do a psychological study on why some subset of 35-45 year old Star Wars fans "hated" a movie that was deemed masterful by almost all critics; I love Luke, too, but RJ didn't ruin anyone's childhoods lol. I felt a little conflicted when I first saw TFA, but when I first saw TLJ, I knew I just watched a masterpiece. I was blown away and couldn't be more excited about Episode IX. It'll hit $700M domestic. It sadly won't win the year.

 

But Magnar says TROS looks like Aquaman, C`mon, up the spirit! Its gonna do at least...one dollar.

Game of Thrones is absolutely big in China. Incoming, first sex scene in Star Wars confirmed.

Howdy @Bowen Expected you to come back for TROS. Its going to be a long box office ride, again!

 

Well, one above water battle to be exact.

It's too late for this trilogy in China. They'll have to start from a new ground floor on up next time.

 

Lets hope the comparison with Aquaman stops there then.

And i agree its too late for them to conquer China now.

 

I absolutely believe TROS will be flashy but nowhere near the bonkers stuff in Aquaman.

All things considered, the prequel fight choreography works for the Chinese market. Which, they could do in the new movies if they are indeed some version of KOTOR. But TROS will not suddenly do that. Couple wirework stunts notwithstanding.

 

I expect some martial arts acrobatics with heavy armour from The Knights of Ren and spectacular flashy and cheesy ( good) force lightening from Palps. The emotional fight for Kylo vrs Rey, Luke, Leia and Anakin. Which is good enough for me. 95% of action stuff in blockbusters bore me these days.

 

Interesting race at the box office this weekend as it's totally up for grabs as Downton Abbey, Rambo V, It: Chapter 2 and Ad Asta all viable shots to take it. Out of the newbies, Downton Abbey and Rambo V (incredibly) have the best shot at getting it. Both Downton Abbey and Ad Asta got good critic reviews. Rambo V? Don't ask. Yikes!

 

Yeah, the critics have never cared for Rambo. But I look forward to seeing him kick some ass!

 

I think First Blood got good enough reviews... and in its day it was an interesting film (Brian Dennehy always makes films better). The sequels, not so much.

 

I don't want to make this political at all but @JoshieHewls the movie is being called a "MAGA's ultimate fantasy". I don't think that was Stallone's intention despite his political views but that it's going to be perceived at least right now.

It's interesting @Josh Jones how the character involved from a very vulnerable and sympathetic one who was broken (for obvious reasons) to the ultimate killing weapon who is like playing a video game.

And interesting side note about First Blood as both it and ANH have something in common. They were both saved in the editing room as the first cut of First Blood was a three hour snoozefest that was so bad Stallone wanted to buy the film and then destroyed it as he was convinced it would ruin his career. But the editors were able to turn it from a three hour drama snoozefest to a 90 minute exciting yet thought provoking action film.

 

I've read that, and it's utterly ridiculous to me. I'm pretty liberal, but I understand that there are bad people in all races. The flick just happens to take place in Mexico and Rambo is taking on a drug cartel that's hurting other Mexicans (including an adopted daughter of sorts).

Sometimes a tree is just a tree. And sometimes I want to see Rambo blow that tree up.

 

Star Wars "influencers" are largely ineffective due to the size of the property in question. It's not like influencers who are pushing people towards certain video games, or makeup lines. Star Wars is a known quantity and has been for longer than most new influencers have been alive. Also, the reach of "influencers" has been recently discovered to be highly inflated BY the influencers and the marketing teams seeking to justify the exorbitant amounts of money they feed to them. Essentially, it's a nice lovely scam in a new field of marketing that many people are exploiting for maximum financial gain due to the fact faceless corporations are footing the bill. Ultimately, it's good work if you can get it, and there's not really much downside since the only people really getting burnt by this are stupid corporations simple enough to lose the money, and more than able to afford it. The influencer/grift economy is strong right now, but so far as Star Wars is concerned, the hardcore fanbase or The Fandom is more than likely considered a weird, off-putting liability at this point, especially considering the news-making negative behavior that followed The Last Jedi, which was considered especially notable and incongruous considering the general audience's more positive reaction to the film.

Much of Star Wars fandom (and fandoms in general) is predicated not so much on enjoying things, but converting their obsession and enjoyment with things into a tangible good, be it something as simple as attention or renown for their status, or in a lot of cases, securing some sort of employment in a media field based on their expertise. This is largely why fandoms end up eating themselves after a long enough period, because people will start to believe they're owed benefits and positions befitting the time and energy they've poured into the fandom.

When Star Wars influencers are aiming their influencing powers at other hardcore Star Wars fans almost exclusively, their reach is automatically limited. The effect fandom has on the film's successes in question is negligible, and always has been. People in fandom bristle at that suggestion despite decades upon decades of evidence that their purchasing power is fractional at best, because they don't want to hear that the return on their fandom investment is so low. "I love something this much that I spend this much time pursuing all aspects of it, obviously it means something."

It does mean something, definitely. But it doesn't really mean anything FINANCIALLY. This is why fan boycotts never work, why fan petitions are always a joke - the percentage of any successful property's hardcore fanbase represents pre-sold tickets and pre-sold merchandise, and the percentage of the potential tally at the end of the day is always going to be small, no matter what. You'd prefer they be happy, and you want them to be happy, but you also know that if you leave them alone for long enough they'll figure some excuse to stick around even if they're not, and keep spending money even if they say they won't.

 

I think TROS will do at least $50 mill and could go as high as $80 mill

 

Lol, we have to blame Chairman Mao and his Cultural Revolution that lasted from 1966 to 1976 but the damage was already done by the time it ended - resulting in a whole generation of Chinese people missing out on the heyday of the Star Wars OT... So for this world’s second largest cinema market today, I hope the new trilogy will herald a new era for the people over there today, and hopefully propel the franchise to greater box office heights also!

If trash like the rotten Transformers movies can make big money in China, with non-existent storylines and mindless action (“The Last Knight” is easily the worst of the lot, yet it did well in China), I don’t see why SW can’t do the same with a new theme that young people there can relate to... Something separate from the core Skywalker Saga yet still giving the feel of a space opera...

 

China will definitely influence the next trilogy, and for that reason going back in time to the Old Republic seems like a no-brainer.


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Heh, that anti-Mexican interpretation of the Rambo flick in that review seems pretty damn silly.

I haven't got around to checking it out yet, but seems his entire surrogate family in the movie is Mexican, the girl he's saving and her family, apparently have sort of taken him in and given him people to care about. Maybe Rambo's, you know, anti-vicious-cartel-guys instead, eh? Whooaa.

Hearing it's probably the worst of the series on balance, somewhere around III, but people seem to be more or less digging it too. Was shocked to hear them say it's more violent than 08 Rambo though, that's...whoa. I'm not particularly squeamish, but that one really had be wincing. Especially due to the tone being a lot more...maybe not "realistic" exactly, but serious, weighty. That flick was nuts.

Doubt Rambo will pull in much dough though, seems a pretty cheap-and-nasty LionsGate type of dealio.

 

I saw Rambo yesterday was a good movie. Lots of blood and bones. I think it will make a few bucks, audiences will enjoy it. I' went to it blind with a few friends.

 

Yeah, always nice to get a hard-R light-on-the-CG action movie these days.

Not expecting much personally, trailers were pretty eye-roll-y, but I'll check out any Rambo or Rocky flick in theaters personally. A little skeptical, given the ending of 2008 Rambo was such a perfect send-off for the character, but whatever. Even if it's Rambo III level bullcrappery, that's still worth a viewing.