ST Episode IX Box Office Discussion

Oh. My link did not work. Anyway, it was a poster for Lion King 3 - the dark days of Disney.
Little Mermaid is a bit silly for live action in my view, but sure, a lot of people would watch that.

Btw. Glass is already rotten at RT ahead of its opening this weekend.

 

Yeah, I keep forgetting Mermaid wasn't technically 90s since it's always lumped in with that era of Disney. Hercules could be a lot of fun if they kept the tone of the original. I would love a more adult version of Hunchback, the stage version was incredible.

Not 90s but they're working on Lilo and Stitch and are apparently happy with the script so that's coming.

Makes sense. Dumbo, Aladdin and Lion King will all be out by then, as will all the Marvel Studios films, so except Episode IX (behind the scenes reel) the focus will be on 2020 and beyond. Mulan and Maleficent 2 will be the main focus in terms of adaptations but I'd expect official announcements on Mermaid and Stitch to be made as well.

 

While 2020 isn't a OMG year like this one is going to be, it still has some plenty of thump to it. Here are some of the highlights:

- Bond 25
- Furious 9
- Trolls 2
- Wonder Woman 1984
- Top Gun: Maverick
- Minions 2
- The Jungle Cruise
- Avatar 2
- Sing 2

You also have a couple place holders for Marvel and DC that have not been announced yet. So while 2020 will not be like 2019 (but frankly what will at this point?) it's still going to see some big players show up.

Meanwhile Aquaman after a decent weekend is assure of a $300/1+ billion split. Pretty crazy to think it will be the first DCEU movie to do that.

 

Im actually amazed that you and other people are believing this spin from Disney.This is EXACTLY the same tactic they used to drum up interest for Solo with their '' SOLO PRESALE TICKETS EXCEED BLACK PANTHER!!! '' news articles they had going prior to release.Well we all know how THAT turned out right?

Im actually thinking Captain Marvel will underperform for a number of reasons.Main reason being the ridiculous woke feminist agenda they are playing up in the marketing ( '' She is a HER......O ! '' ).Number two is Brie Larson and her idiotic comments to the media that she doesnt care what white males over 40 care about her movies ( I bet Disney was REALLY happy when she made those comments ! ).Number three is Larson is a really overrated actress and comes across as quite wooden in the trailers

.Number four is that the Captain Marvel movie coming from DC in april looks so much better with a much more likeable and appealing lead!

 

As I pointed out before, Star Wars and Marvel and other big budget movies behave differently on presales domestically, so comparing Marvel vs. Marvel is better comparison than Star Wars vs. Marvel. First entries / prequels / origin stories also behave differently than sequels do.

 

It will be an important movie for the BO, first MCU after the end of the avengers.
Look like a good, fun summer movie but I will watch once upon a time in Hollywood this summer.

 

Right now the movie seems out of place and confusing in the light of the real focus: the battle against Thanos. Either this takes place prior to either Thanos movies OR things are reset to a world where the Avengers start all over. My theory is that the ones who turned to dust become the new Avengers and those that didn't turn to dust are reset to a pre-Avengers existence. Having turned to dust, Nick Fury is part of the new Avengers and begins a mission to restart the Avenger initiative.

 

I'm amazed that you think that Captain Marvel will fail because of Brie's 7 month-old comment on the white male critics reviews of A Wrinkle In Time.

Of course, the lead of Shazam's own controversial comments about sex and race isn't an issue.

 

@Guidman

Yeah I think Solo showed that early online ticket sales doesn't mean much other then the rabidness of the core fan for that film. I think a better indictator is how ticket sales are going with about a week to go and leading up to Thursday Previews. If the demand is strong during Premiere Week then you are going to see a good number put up for OW.

And the movie going experience has really changed over the past several years even compared to what it was a few years back when TFA came out. As you said more and more theaters are doing reserved seating. Matter of fact I think the only major movie chain that doesn't have reserved seating is Cinemark. And my guess that will change soon enough once they redo their theaters since they are also the only ones with traditional stadium seating. Both Regal and AMC have moved to the leather recliner seats. I suspect Cinemark will eventually redo their theaters for a similiar look though I might be one of the few that perfers traditional stadium seating. The leather recliners put me to sleep.

@jedijax

I believe the snyposis online says that it takes place after the events of End Game but that doesn't make much sense to me. If anything this should take place before Infinity War though I guess it could take place after End Game as a way to start off Avengers 2.0. Spidey is definitely going to one of the main players in Avengers 2.0 along with Captain Marvel, Doctor Strange, Ant-Man/Wasp and Black Panther.

 

There’s this weird online contingent of people obsessed with saying Shazam is the real Captain Marvel that everyone is excited for, but I’ve seen zero evidence of it in normal life or in any single actual poll compiling votes anywhere. Captain Marvel is higher by a significant margin than Shazam on every single poll/survey I’ve seen. Twitter, Fandango, Facebook, whatever. Shoot even the Captain Marvel subreddit has more subscribers than Shazam’s.

This is nothing like Solo. Solo followed a divisive film and online hype was muted across the board imo, not just from one demographic particularly obsessed with the politics of the actor. Captain Marvel, otoh, leads into Endgame, the most hyped movie of the year probably. Shazam will do fine also, I’m definitely gonna see it (and Captain Marvel), but I mainly only see that one demographic obsessed with politics really talking about it, and it’s almost always in comparison to Captain Marvel. It’s just an excuse to jab at that movie.

 

The only thing I can see slowly Captain Marvel down "slightly" is Dumbo at the end of the month. There will be a bit of demos crossing together mostly families with a bit older kids who will opt most likely to see Dumbo for the first time instead of return viewing of CM. But by then CM will have a few weeks to run up the scoreboard including over spring breaks throughout this country including the last week of March which is where most schools have their break now.

I do think though expecting CM to do what BP did is unrealistic. $700 million plus domestically is still extremely rare air that only three films have ever smelled before to but BP really had a perfect release date that allowed to just rampage for a month before Pacific Rim 2 and Ready Player One came out. And neither one of those movies did anything to stellar at the box office. CM will have more competition so it won't be able to roam as much.

Edit: I should also add I don't there is not quite the same interest in CM as there was in BP at this point though that could change. I do think having Black Panther's introduction in Civil War really garner up interest in the movie especially early one compared to Captain Marvel since this is a true origin film since she has yet to be introduced in any MCU movie outside of a reference in Ant-Man 2. The interest for CM is definitely high but I don't think it will reach that of BP for the reasons above.

 

Here's what happens with Captain Marvel under many but not all scenarios (<$90M and >$210M not accounted for on the chart).



BoxOfficePro website has it penciled in between $140-$180M for $465M domestic. They usually underestimate Marvel a little bit, Black Panther being the largest example.

 

This puts it a bit over Wonder Woman domestically, which I’m not sure about. Wonder Woman is a much more well-known, popular character, and she already got the hype for being the “first” female led superhero movie (she obviously wasn’t really, but in this era anyway). The wildcard to me is whether coming from the far more popular cinematic universe and leading into Endgame compensates for that.

 

@Luke02 it makes sense if End Game changes history and reality which is what I think will happen.

@AhsokaSolo Captain Marvel has a chance at beating WW if people see it as a prologue to End Game. If it is and word on the street is that you have to see this movie first, then the sky's the limit I suppose.

@NHB0M you are right, I don't think anyone really cares what Brie says about a movie that hardly hit $100 million. Only those who really pay attention to that nonsense even know what she said in the first place. I had to look it up because I hadn't heard about it until brought up here. And I still don't care lol.

I think that if Captain Marvel was just a film that stood by itself and only for her character, the movie would struggle to do better than Ant Man numbers. But this movie has MUCH more impact than that and should tie a LOT of things together. We can only hope that SW IX does the same for its trilogy.

As for Spidey FFH-I'm just not feeling it AT ALL. My only question is what future supervillain is Mysterio somehow tied to that this new phase will have to tackle someday?

 

@Darth Chiznuk I like that quantum relam theory and your post made my head hurts a bit less. Because that Spiderman trailer makes little or no sense to me regarding the timeline for End Game.

I watched Spiderman; Into the Spiderverse last week and it was pretty great. Far from Home...its looks like a Netflix movie, a generic mess visually. And while they managed to charm some people with the John Hughes 80s teencomedy style of Homecoming, this tagline «going to Europe»...for the sequel, is taking the 80s approach too far. Is it a joke or? In the 80s, when they did run out of ideas for the sequel, the heroes always went to Europe for some stupid adventure. Bring on the Eiffel Tower and Tower Bridge. Duh. Tom Holland is very likable though.

I want to talk about Star Wars Episode IX. We need a title, some substantial rumours, and a teaser.

 

@Darth Chiznuk I actually think that they change it such that the likes of Stark and Rogers hadn't become Avengers....at least not yet. Hence Stark dreaming of having a kid and it seeming real. He saw another reality. Also Rogers looking at Peg's picture in the teaser may also be telling.

 

Absolutely agree with this. I'm assuming that Captain Marvel was delayed so long just because they decided to directly tie it in to Endgame. If it ends up that the timing is just coincidental, and the word-of-mouth is it's a standalone that only indirectly ties into Endgame by implying why she can help defeat Thanos or something, I expect it to be closer to Ant Man. It's kind of like IX to me. I feel like it's impossible to make predictions without a stronger sense of the story. These things aren't just about anticipation or hype. For example, I'm willing to predict a steep drop off for Glass after OW because of the RT score and what I've seen of the word-of-mouth from early screeners. If the reception was glowing, I wouldn't.

 

It takes just a little wind out of Endgame's sails knowing that the world's been un-snapped. What I hope they don't do is make it so that the snap never happened because I want to see the massive fallout of everyone being snapped and then coming back with the knowledge of their deaths. Then the world will have really changed. Either way they un-snap people, I don't think the timeline will be re-written to the point that the Avengers never existed, probably make it so that Thanos never invades Earth. It will be interesting to see how well FFH does as the first post-Infinity War MCU movie. There's not doubt it'll do well, it's just a question of how well.

I can't wait until we get the first legit teaser for Episode 9! Then the betting can really start!

 

$3.7 million for Glass on Preview Thursday. Could break $50 plus million this holiday weekend. If it does, it will be the second biggest opening on MJK holiday weekend ever. Meanwhile Acquaman will make it into the $300 million domestic club. That means 2018 will end with 6 movies that made $300 million plus. That is down from 2017 and 2016 where six movies hit that mark. But keep in mind there were 3 movies that hit over $600 million domestically. First time that is ever happened.

 

Im actually predicting that Far From Home will underperform due to Spider Man fatigue.Theres been a spidey appearance EVERY year for the last four years or so.Spidey in Civil War.Spidey in Homecoming.Spidey in Infinity War.Spidey in Into The Spiderverse.Spidey in Endgame.Oh and another Spider Man film this year.

Enough already!

 

Spider-Man is definitely one if not the most overexposed superhero right now.

You forgot the video game:



It still sold well (for a video game) last year at about 9 million units.