ST Episode IX Box Office Discussion

Well I can give examples from the X-Men series.
X3, the last stand was not received as well as the other two. It made quite a bit of money still.
Then you had Origins Wolverine, which was not received well at all.
After that you had X-Men, First Class, which did get better reviews and was better liked overall.
And yet it made less than those two, both domestic and worldwide.

The Wolverine followed and it got a better reception than Origins but people did have issues with the final act. It made less domestic but more overseas than Origins.

You could also take Batman begins, which followed Batman and Robin, which was soundly trashed by critics and moviegoers.
Batman begins was received much better and it made more money domestic, not that much more overseas. However it's domestic gross was not that high, about 200 M.
Dark Knight however made much more, both domestic and world wide.
I think that some bad taste from B and R still lingered. But then The dark Knight could grow a lot due to good will that Batman Begins had generated.

Bye for now.
Old Stoneface

 

It`s super-unlikely to miss 1 billion now with its current gross. However this week played out roughly within predictions I read last week so I think the predicted drops will be right, too. Rogue One final gross remains a question mark. Domestic number 3 seems locked, worldwide is still way too close to call.

 

918 million world wide gross. Really good weekend for it internationally. Don't think anyone predicted that

 

Totally agree with the Batman take. I remember raving about Batman Begins to my sister, who said "another Batman? The last one was horrible!" By the time the Dark Knight came out, word was out that this franchise was for real. Along with Ledger's performance. Looks like ROS should make a billion for sure.

 

This didn't age well... or you were just extremely prescient.

 

I`ve seen analysts last week predict it would make between 100 and 110 million internationally this week. It made 104 million. So yes, people predicted it.

 

Disney spent $4 billion on this IP and has yet to even come close to recovering that investment.

If you accept this analysis, they’ve not even made half of their original investment back (in 2012 dollars):
https://practicaleconomics.org/disney-star-wars-the-finances/

Trust me: the execs are not happy.

 

It seems like I was completely wrong.

I'm really sorry for bugging everyone in this thread for the past few months. My exile begins now.

Congratulations @zackm!

 

Without the current Disney era it’s easy to imagine brand apathy being much lower from the time period of 2016-2020. Lucasfilm tried to re-release the phantom menace and the rear of the prequels in 3D back when 3D was still gimmicky and fresh and abandoned the idea quickly thereafter. While toys seem to still move perhaps in part form PT kids coming of age and getting money and spending the brand itself had already begun seeing competition from Potter, LOTR, and more even before the next rise of the MCU. There are a lot of young people going to Disney world who know BB8, Kylo Ren, Rey & Chewbacca and I’m not sure as many would in the present had there not been some new content out there. It’s entirely possible that the brand would be even less known to those who weren’t already fans from 77-06 had they not made this new content.


The other aspect people forget is the move to Disney +. Disney is in the content business and physical media is dead. They needed to adapt and needed Disney + to be a hit and it has been and Star Wars has helped that launch.

 

nah don't go.

 

Disney+ is very very new. Yes, it enjoyed lots of subscribers and the Mando was received well. But now that it is finished? There are mass unsubscriptions. Even the Disney execs know Disney+ needs to establish itself first - and international rollout hasn`t even begun - and it is not expected to make profit for the next 5 or so years. The new streaming service can only be seriously analyzed maybe two years in, not now.

 

Which demonstrates and highlights the long-term ROI Disney realizes they need to adapt. All of these acquisitions were made to better hedge against the decline of physical media they foresaw. They knew that content ownership would decide the winners from the losers in the streaming wars and became immediate players despite having very little original content out of the gate.

 

Well if what you say is true and there are mass unsubscriptions and I have no doubt that there are, wouldn't that mean Star Wars and specifically new Star Wars content is key to Disney +? So that would mean Star Wars is very important to Disney.

 

He made the bet. He should honor the results.

 

It is amazing how fast Physical media is dying. Ive got all these dumb DVDs and Blue rays and I don't have a clue what to do with them. Probably sell them for pennies on the dollar.

 

Poster clearly stated weekend.

 

What did he bet?

 

Well, it`s the same with any streaming service, it gets surges when shows people are into "drop" and they unsubscribe afterwards. In terms of new content, what did Disney+ have besides the Mandalorian? People en masse don`t get a new streaming service for movies and shows they already know. So I reckon the MCU shows, whenever they drop, will lead to mass subscriptions from MCU fans - and unsubscriptions right after.

Meaning, it will neither be Star Wars nor the MCU and especially not their "library" that keeps things running, it will be whatever new content they can come up. SW is but a drop in that ocean.

That`s semantics. Noone precited a weekday to make 40 million or something to come up with that total. The weekend was always supposed to bring in the major share.

 

Be curious to see if MCU fans flock to those shows like Star Wars Fans. Im keeping it cause Clone wars starts soon.

 

1 year exile from this forum if TROS made more than $450M DOM.

 

If ROS makes a billion and Disney plus is a hit I don't think Disney can be THAT disappointed. I mean it could have done better but it's not exactly a dumpster fire. WOM seems to be good on ROS.

 

Nope, it’s a fact. They stated weekend. $50 million is what made. Both facts.

Opinions/self perception which you seem quite determined to make known are the debatable aspects of the conversation.

 

RoS definitely not going to crack the top 5 worldwide for 2019, but it will be the third biggest movie domestically, beat out only by its most obvious competition. My main correct prediction of 2019 was that Lion King was a serious contender for second place worldwide. I would never have predicted that Star Wars couldn't hit $1.1 billion.

 

Disney+ had a good start but "a hit" is a question mark somewhere in the future. Until then they will have to sink millions into content for it. Netflix is several billion in debt and they are not unsuccesful as a streaming service.

Okay, fine, I`ve not personally seen any prediction of specifically 50 million for this weekend internationally last week.

But I would still caution against expecting super-legs internationally now because those 50 million was somehow such a great number, it blew everyone`s minds.