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Senate Going Postal: The 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

Discussion in 'Community' started by Point Given , Nov 9, 2018.

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  1. Vaderize03

    Vaderize03 Manager Emeritus star 6 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Oct 25, 1999
    My fear is that there will be a rush to jump on the Beto bandwagon for exactly the reasons Vivec states. As with Obama, this could happen without knowing what his true positions are. Vivec’s point, which is we have a habit of picking good retail politicians for reason of optics (and give policy short-shrift at times as a result) is well-taken, but the fact remains that an awful lot of people fall for that.

    The only question for 2020 is: will Democrats fall in love, or fall in line? Nominating a true progressive is more likely with the former, IMHO, than the latter. This debate is current raging full-tilt within Democratic ranks, as evidenced by the whole “energize the base or reach out to white Trump voters” distraction.

    My take: forget race, gender, or sexual orientation and speak to everyone. This is best accomplished through policy, not platitudes. And that, ultimately, is the best way to build a coalition and win.

    @Lord Vivec, do you agree?
     
  2. SuperWatto

    SuperWatto Manager Emeritus star 7 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Sep 19, 2000
    My new band name. Work guaranteed.
     
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  3. dp4m

    dp4m Also a Narc star 10

    Registered:
    Nov 8, 2001
    Beto is more centrist than some established Liberal women senators who have won races; I'd expect that backlash to happen. :p He's a white, male Kamala Harris at best, sorry Vivec. :p

    Of course, Harris is my huckleberry so I'd vote for Beto but he's definitely not my first choice...
     
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  4. Lord Vivec

    Lord Vivec Chosen One star 9

    Registered:
    Apr 17, 2006
    I agree, but with the caveat and you and I might support different policies.
    I'm not voting for Beto, so idk why you're apologizing to me ....
     
  5. Vaderize03

    Vaderize03 Manager Emeritus star 6 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Oct 25, 1999
    Nothing wrong with that. I was speaking to process and not policy anyway.
     
  6. dp4m

    dp4m Also a Narc star 10

    Registered:
    Nov 8, 2001
    Because you're an anti-Harris guy, so just apologizing (in general) for lumping him in with her!
     
  7. Lord Vivec

    Lord Vivec Chosen One star 9

    Registered:
    Apr 17, 2006
    Harris and Beto are both centrist corporatist Democrats so lump them together all you like!
     
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  8. Vaderize03

    Vaderize03 Manager Emeritus star 6 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Oct 25, 1999
    Um, no.

    This re-elects Trump. Guaranteed. Sounds good on paper, but it will never happen. Also, she’s a Republican advisor, so maybe it’s a plant to try and split the Democratic vote?

    Chute, now I’m spouting conspiracy theories. Time for a light ice cream bar for dessert.
     
  9. Darth Guy

    Darth Guy Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Aug 16, 2002
    Political writers are almost all ****ing idiots, aren't they?
     
  10. SuperWatto

    SuperWatto Manager Emeritus star 7 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Sep 19, 2000
    I liked that post before I read what you were referring to.
     
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  11. Lord Vivec

    Lord Vivec Chosen One star 9

    Registered:
    Apr 17, 2006
    Trump is a sexist but the serial creepy shoulder massager and the binders full of women guy are both fine!
     
  12. Point Given

    Point Given Manager star 6 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Dec 12, 2006

    lol
     
  13. Ramza

    Ramza Administrator Emeritus star 8 VIP - Former Mod/RSA VIP

    Registered:
    Jul 13, 2008
    I wonder what the Biden camp's rationale for hiring her was. "Statistically speaking she has to be right once"?
     
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  14. SuperWatto

    SuperWatto Manager Emeritus star 7 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Sep 19, 2000
    Political opportunists are almost all ****ing idiots, aren't they?
     
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  15. DarthIntegral

    DarthIntegral Baseball Draft Commish star 9 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Jul 13, 2005
    A Unity Ticket worked so well in 1864. What could go wrong this time?
     
  16. Darth Guy

    Darth Guy Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Aug 16, 2002
    I hope Mitt Romney won't **** up Reconstruction this time around.
     
  17. Drac39

    Drac39 Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    Jul 9, 2002
    She's my senator and I completely agree
     
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  18. Yodaminch

    Yodaminch Chosen One star 6

    Registered:
    Mar 6, 2002
    John Kasich is upset with New Hampshire GOP trying to endorse Trump before a primary. Sounds like he is seriously considering a challenge. Good. If impeachment and resignation are not on the table, my preference is a primary defeat. Not that Trump will give up- he might try to run Independent (let him). I'd sooner risk a Kasich presidency then another 4 years of Trump.
     
  19. WriterMan

    WriterMan Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Nov 26, 2012
    I'd love that too... but the odds of that happening are next to none. An incumbent president has practically no chance of losing a primary. Johnson probably would have in '64, there's no way to know now, and Kennedy put up a good fight against Carter in '80, which was the last time an incumbent was primaried. Technically Theodore Roosevelt did lose the primary in 1912, but it was to the actual incumbent WH Taft.

    Trump also has an 89% approval rating among Republicans according to Gallup, and that's damn near insurmountable. He will be the nominee in 2020 unless something extremely catastrophic happens.

    He is a terrible general election candidate, much more so than last time, and he's only propped up by his incumbency advantage.... That said, finding a Democrat who's not a gazillion years old and is somewhat relatable isn't going that well for us, either.

    He is the most beatable incumbent since Hoover, honestly - and that does count every single incumbent president who did lose. But unless an actual miracle happens in these next 18 months, I'd guess he's probably going to win again.
     
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  20. Vaderize03

    Vaderize03 Manager Emeritus star 6 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Oct 25, 1999
    I disagree.

    The only thing stronger than loyalty to Trump among his base is hatred of him from those who oppose. The problem isn't that Trump is unbeatable, it's that the various factions of his opposition are unable to unite. The divisions apparent on these board between the centrist and center-left wings of the Democratic party (and liberal independents) mirror the ones that exist in 'real life'. These are what will hand Trump another victory, not the popularity of his policies or the GOP's ideas. The solution to this is a transformative figure, and right now, none exists. Obama campaigned as one but failed to govern as he'd promised, which will make the same sort of lightning that much harder to strike twice.

    The most likely scenario for Trump's re-election is the insistence of purity tests in the Democratic party, which will lead down them the path of 'focus groups' and 'base turnout' (similar to the GOP's strategy under Trump) rather than crafting a purely economic message that abandons identity politics and instead addresses the structural problems destroying American society.

    These are, in no particular order:
    1) Climate change
    2) Income inequality
    3) Lack of investment in infrastructure, education, healthcare, the environment, and tax and social policies which favor the billionaire class
    4) Systemic racism and misogyny
    5) Voter suppression, gerrymandering, and the corrupting influence of lobbyist and dark money in politics

    An agenda which focused on the above would resonate with more than enough people to destroy Trump. It will, however, involve the liberal and centrist factions of the Democratic party working together and at times, compromising. That has been a heavy lift in the past, and will probably continue to be the case heading into 2020. Or to quote an old adage, "Democrats often snatch defeat from the jaws of victory".
     
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2018
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  21. WriterMan

    WriterMan Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Nov 26, 2012
    This is exactly the miracle I was talking about. You are more optimistic than I am - and I hope you're right that this is doable!

    I'm just not holding my breath. I'll believe we have a chance when the primaries have started and we have a candidate beating Trump consistently by 10 in the polls.
     
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2018
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  22. Lordban

    Lordban Chosen One star 6

    Registered:
    Nov 9, 2000
    Unfortunately, no, it wouldn't resonate with more than enough people. Denouncing is only the beginning of the battle of politics. You have to say clearly whose fault it is and what you're going to do about it, and it has to sound believable to enough people. And, most importantly, it has to be something a majority of people think is problematic enough in the first place to need someone or something to blame for it.
     
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2018
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  23. Ghost

    Ghost Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    Oct 13, 2003
  24. Lord Vivec

    Lord Vivec Chosen One star 9

    Registered:
    Apr 17, 2006
    These people who support Beto are the definition of misguided.
     
  25. Darth Guy

    Darth Guy Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Aug 16, 2002
    Michael Bloomberg is the biggest nightmare scenario nominee, just in front of Biden/Romney and Beto "2008 called and it wants its Democratic candidate back" O'Rourke.
     
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