ST If (IF!) Episode IX has box office numbers like Solo...

Star Wars has been a massive success in the past and it may be again in the future.
Right now Star Wars is in a bad place and people are going to discuss it.

I did not like TFA TLJ and Solo was meh.

I did however really enjoy Rogue One.

After next year this trilogy will be over and it will be time to move on I am very hopeful that The Game of Thrones guys can deliver something great.

Watching Game of Thrones for the last seven seasons has made my jaw drop at times Star Wars use to be able to do that to me.

I was saying the choice of JJ Abrams was bad when he was announced for TFA and Rian Johnson should not go anywhere near Star Wars again in many peoples opinion.

People are not bashing many people including me believe that this new trilogy is trash and TFA only made it big on hype.

Giving the Game of Thrones guys a shot at new movies I feel is a great move and I am really looking forward to the final season of this epic show.



Love to see what these guys can do on a movie budget.

 

as long as IX isn't a movie that counciously confronts fans and expectations (ehem TLJ, ehem), and the word-of-mouth (mostly if it's entertaining-exciting or not) is positive, it will hit the 1,5-1,8 billion mark with ease...
Solo is a huge red flag concerning the viability of the spinoffs, but IX will be fine...

 

I think it will be lucky very lucky if it gets to a billion.
The casuels have walked away from this franchise the lack of merchandise sales is another red flag.

People will just say oh look another Star Wars movie meh.

 

couldn't disagree more: the "casuals" pushed TLJ to the +1 billion mark (it's the enraged fans, at least half of them, who prevented TLJ to hit the 2 Billion mark, because of the obvious lack of repeat viewings at the theaters)

It's not oh just another SW movie, it's the ending chapter of the new trilogy, the movies that actually interest the casuals, unlike the spinoffs, tv series, the so-called Johnson Trilogy, etc

 

Well to be honest I am giving my opinion on what I think might happen however none of us know for sure what will happen.

I am sure LFL and Disney must be discussing this also.
I hope Episode 9 is good and it does well but time will tell.

 

It won't do Solo-bad, but if it ends up around $800-900 million, it won't be possible to deny Disney's team have killed the golden goose.

 

Maybe "Killed" is a strong term, but severely wounded it wouldn't be far from the mark IMHO. I think with the right story, and script, it can return to it's former glory.

 

The hard part isn't recovering the domestic market. I think that can be done. But the foreign market is where the struggle will be. They may have jumped the shark on that one.

 

There's no way EP-IX will do as poorly as Solo, but I'm pretty sure it's going to underperform relative to TFA/TLJ.
Definitely less than $500m domestic and $1b WW.

 

Keep in mind that TLJ plummeted at the box office and was soon performing under Rogue One per week - a main saga movie decades in the making with main cast characters was performing under a small prequel spinoff with unknown characters. Saying that saga movies are guaranteed to be safe is questionable to me, we've already seen that's not true imo, but people didn't notice because it was so front-loaded on inherited hype and so earned big money before audiences had reacted to it. I don't think that the next one is going to inherit hype from Solo or Ep 8, not like Ep 8 did from Rogue One and Ep 7. It'll surely be bigger than Solo, but it's not some guaranteed safe thing and that's already been shown in TLJ's numbers after audiences got a taste of where the franchise was now going (or perhaps more correctly, stalling).

 

To be fair another way to look at it is that Rouge One surpassed expectations because many general audiences don't see the fundemental difference between a Saga film and a non-Saga film.

 

They're going to promote the hell out of Ep IX which they didn't do for Solo.

It's also the conclusion of the trilogy. There could be a dark side victory, or even an ambiguous ending that opens up many possibilities for future canon stories. People will want to know what happens.

 

TLJ fell under Rogue One from around week 3-5 I think, so I think in both cases audiences were pretty on top of things by then and relying on word of mouth, and on top of that, TLJ actually was a saga film... (with Luke Skywalker in the trailers and all the characters from TFA) yet still dropped below Rogue One...

At this point I don't think it's fair to say that the saga movies are untouchable and will always do better than these random spinoffs, TLJ already showed that they're not. Once it used up the TFA/Rogue One good will and was judged more on its own merits, it actually did worse than Rogue One. And that and Solo is the enthusiasm which Ep 9 has to build off.

 

Except it did better than Rogue One in the long run. Ultimately there is not necessarily much evidence that Saga films would do better than standalones like Rogue One - that was all speculation. Ultimately TLJ was slightly less loved than RO and TFA, so yes, it dropped slightly.

 

It did better than Rogue One at the start before audiences had seen it, after that it dropped below Rogue One's weekly earnings (and that's without even considering a little bit of inflation). That was a saga film continuing the decades-long main story with the main character(s), performing under a small prequel spinoff with unknown characters. The saga films are vulnerable. TLJ's overall apparent 'success' relies on a lot of inheritance, it earned big up front before audience had seen it and were going based on the previous ones, after that it did really bad, worse than a small prequel spinoff.

 

Sure, it did slightly wrose leg-wise than Rogue One, but I think this argument that TLJ did terribly box office wise on its own merits works on the assumption that TLJ should have done just as well as TFA, that it should be inherently better than RO (for reasons I don't think the general audience cares about) and that all of its success relies upon factors apart from the film itself. All of these films are built upon the previous entries success.

Yes, TLJ did slightly underperform at the box office, but it didn't do terribly.

 

I don't think you've grasped what I was saying. It's not about doing as well as TFA or not, it's about dropping below a small prequel spinoff with unknown characters once audiences got a taste of it. It did as well as TFA at first, before audiences only knew how to judge it by its predecessors and trailers. It's how it did after, relative to even a small prequel spinoff with unknowns, which is really telling and shows that the saga movies really aren't some invincible thing, one was already doing worse than Rogue One once it used up the hype of its predecessor. I doubt Ep 9 will do as badly as Solo, but I also don't think it can be hand waved as safe due to being a saga movie, because TLJ has already shown that Saga movies can perform under small prequel spinoffs when they no longer have the benefit of a previous hyping movie, and the next one has to follow Solo and TLJ, so it's not looking as rosy as people say.

These same discussion happened before Solo opened and people declared all was well since it's Star Wars, it will be absolutely fine. Well now Disney has seemingly lost hundred(s) of millions of dollars, with one of the biggest box office bombs around, dealing with a very well known franchise and set of characters and recognizable assets which most flops don't get the benefit of. Ep 9 is not guaranteed big numbers like some people think I don't think.

 

Again, you're suggesting that Rogue One was just some 'small prequel spinoff' and that failure to superseded it is a failure unto itself. Maybe the difference between Saga films and non-Saga films doesn't exist for general audiences and they can only be expected to do slightly better. When you look at it from that perspective TLJ did far better than you're suggesting. I think IX will do less than TFA but more than TLJ.

 

IX less than TFA but better than TLJ

Why? Look at ROTJ and ROTS. All did better than their predecessor, the sequel, and closed the trilogy. With the middle film doing least business. The general audience will turn out to see how the Skywalker saga ends, how they handle Leia, what happens to Kylo and Rey and poe and Finn etc. TLJ haters and boycotters need something to b**** about so they’ll go too so they can rip it to pieces with gusto.

I want whatever some people are smoking when it’s mentioned that episode IX will hit solo style numbers — solo, a film with a very troubled production that others predicted wouldn’t stick.

 

Then Kennedy "retires" from Lucasfilm (i.e. gets forced out nicely), a new "show runner"/creative director for LFL is hired, then the Johnson trilogy gets canned completely (axe for the downturn falls on him and Kennedy), and the other projects (Benioff & Weiss, Kenobi, Fett) probably shift to becoming series on the Disney streaming service rather than feature films, and they wait it out 5 years or so and really come up with a good game plan for films in the future.

Actually, something like a 10-part KENOBI series on Disney streaming might be even cooler than 1 stand-alone movie.

 

Episode IX would be the last Star Wars movie for a long time. Disney would thereafter invest all of its Star Wars dollars into computer games, TV cartoons, and toys and other merchandise.

After a long time passed, Disney would remake the OT. ("Paramount did it with Kirk, Spock, and McCoy, so why can't we do it with Luke, Han, and Leia?")