Indiana Jones and the Box Office Tracker - Quarter of a Billion Dollars and Counting

With Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull opening at 12:01 Thursday I thought we better get a box office thread going. This thread is where all news stories, articles and links to the box office earnings of Indiana Jones are to be posted.

Box Office Mojo is one of the best sites online for keeping up with box office grosses as they come in. I intend to update this thread daily as the numbers come in.

To get things started I though it would be fun to have a little contest to predict the Indy box office for this first week of release. They're will be be FIVE categories to make predictions in:

1. Midnight Screening Take - May 22 12:01am
2. First Day Take - May 22
3. Opening 3-Day Weekend Take - Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, May 23-25
4. Memorial Day Weekend Take - Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, May 22-26
5. Complete Five Day Take - May 22-26

Make your predictions.

 

My predictions are going to be complete and utter guesses but here goes.

1. Midnight Screening Take = 5.7 Million
2. First Day Take = 37 Million
3. Opening 3-Day Weekend Take = 107 Million (Friday = 35 Million, Saturday = 40 Million, Sunday = 32 Million)
4. Memorial Day Weekend Take = 134 Million (Friday = 35 Million, Saturday = 40 Million, Sunday = 32 Million, Monday = 27 Million)
5. Complete Five Day Take = 171 Million

I think my numbers may be too high. I have a feeling KOTCS may have an Attack of the Clones type box office run and may not be able to beat Iron Man which is turning into a box office monster.

 

Those look about right to me. I believe Paramount is doing a "day and date" release world-wide, so it will be interesting to see the overseas numbers as well.

 

First day take with or without the midnight screenings?

1. Midnight Screening Take = 7.2 million
2. First Day Take = 35 without ms, 42 with ms
3. Opening 3-Day Weekend Take = 101 million (Fri = 29 , Sat = 39 , Sun = 33)
4. Memorial Day Weekend Take = 126 million (Fri = 29 , Sat = 39 , Sun = 33 , Mon = 25)
5. Complete Five Day Take = 168 million

I would be very surprised if Indy doesn't beat Iron Man. IM is doing really well, but I can't see it go far beyond 300. Indy, on ther other hand, I can see from 325 to a bit over 400, depending on how well it's received, with the most likely result being somewhere between 350 and 370.

 

Well, I guess we overpredicted a bit
It looks like the movie is more likely to hit around 30 million. May have been carried away a bit, should have been clear that this wasn't going to start like Star Wars, more spread out over the weekend.

Now it depends on whether the weekend is rising or if the movie drops from its opening day. If it does drop quite a bit, then we were really off in our predictions.

 

Pretty much right. It opened almost everywhere on May 21st-22nd. The only exceptions I know of are India and Japan.

 

The first day numbers are in at Box Office Mojo.

Thursday's Box Office = $25,041,072

Box Office Mojo's Indiana Jones and the KotCS Page
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=indianajones4.htm

I was way to high with my estimate as I thought I might be.

 

Just ran into this story:

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Actor Harrison Ford cracked the box-office whip as his latest "Indiana Jones" movie grossed a hefty $25 million from its first day in North American theaters, independent industry analysts reported on Friday.

That tally ranks as the fourth highest-grossing Thursday debut on record and bodes well for a movie industry looking to "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" to help shake the movie business out an early summer slump.

But analysts were divided over whether the highly anticipated adventure flick from Viacom Inc's Paramount Pictures is on track to overtake last year's "Pirates of the Caribbean" film as the biggest opening on a U.S. Memorial Day holiday weekend.

"Crystal Skull," directed by Steven Spielberg, is the fourth movie in the beloved and lucrative movie franchise that began in 1981 with "Raiders of the Lost Ark," and is the first to hit the big screen in 19 years.

The three previous "Indy" movies have collectively grossed more than $1.2 billion in ticket sales worldwide.

In the latest film, Ford, 65, reprises his title role as the bullwhip-cracking archeologist who hates snakes, and is reunited with actress Karen Allen, his co-star from the first adventure. Set during the 1950s Cold War era, the story pits him against an evil KGB agent played by Cate Blanchett in a race to find a skull endowed with mystic powers.

Box office analyst Paul Dergarabedian, president of Media By Numbers, said the film's opening Thursday performance was robust enough without being so strong as to diminish its weekend audience.

If its Friday-through-Monday box office tally crosses the $140 million mark, the film would exceed last year's Walt Disney Co's "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" as the biggest North American opening yet for the four-day Memorial Day holiday weekend.

"They have a strong shot at meeting or exceeding that Pirates of the Caribbean number last year," Dergarabedian said.

Brandon Gray, president of online tracking service Box Office Mojo, disagreed.

"We just don't have enough previous data to say what this $25 million indicates," he said, noting that few potential blockbusters have opened on the Thursday before a four-day holiday weekend.

Both analysts agreed, however, that the movie was likely to reap a handsome return for Paramount over the long run. Gray added that "Crystal Skull" already has grossed in its first day about half the business each of the last two "Indy" films -- "The Last Crusade" and "The Temple of Doom" -- did in their first full weekends when adjusting for ticket price inflation.

By comparison, the highest-grossing Thursday debut at the domestic box office was the $50 million raked in three years ago by "Star Wars: Episode III -- Revenge of the Sith," according to Box Office Mojo. But that film's first weekend did not fall on a holiday.

The last big release from Paramount, "Iron Man," opened three weeks ago with $98.6 million in U.S.-Canadian receipts its first Friday-through-Sunday frame -- a sum that the latest "Indiana Jones" film is expected to surpass.

Unlike the new "Indiana Jones" film, "Iron Man" was fully financed by Marvel Studios, which paid Paramount a flat fee to market and distribute its film. Thus, Paramount has much more at stake riding on the success of its latest release.

Reuters/Nielsen

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/arts/entertainment-indianajones-boxoffice.html

 

Friday Estimate = 31,000,000
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2008-05-23&p=.htm

Box Office Mojo's Indiana Jones and the KotCS Page
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=indianajones4.htm

 

Opening Weekend Estimates are in.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

3 Day = $101,000,000 (Friday = $31,000,000, Saturday = $37,000,000, Sunday = $33,000,000)
4 Day Total = $126,000,000

Box Office Mojo's Indiana Jones and the KotCS Page
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=indianajones4.htm

---

Story from the AP

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080525/ap_en_mo/box_office

[b]Indiana Jones' unearths $126M in box office gold

By RYAN NAKASHIMA, AP Business Writer Sun May 25, 4:32 PM ET

LOS ANGELES - Indiana Jones unearthed box office gold at domestic theaters with a performance that puts the film on track to become the second biggest Memorial Day movie opening ever, according to studio estimates Sunday.

The fourth installment of the whip-cracking professor's exploits, "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull," grossed an estimated $101 million from Friday to Sunday, plus $25 million from its opening Thursday, distributor Paramount Pictures said. The company expects it to earn another $25 million on Monday.

That would put it behind only "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End," which had a Friday-through-Monday total of $139.8 million, in the pantheon of Memorial Day weekend blockbusters.

Including Thursday's receipts, "Indiana Jones" was expected to collect $151 million over five days, slightly behind "Pirates," which took in $153 million with a partial Thursday included.

"'Indiana Jones' did incredibly well for a film that comes 19 years after the previous installment," said Paul Dergarabedian, president of tracking firm Media By Numbers LLC.

The adventure flick received a lackluster reception from critics at the Cannes Film Festival, but audiences thought otherwise.

Box office estimates grew from $25 million on its opening Thursday through $37 million on Saturday, suggesting strong word of mouth, Dergarabedian said.

"This is the definition of a summer movie from two of the architects of the summer movie season ? George Lucas and Steven Spielberg," he said. "These guys have it down to a science and audiences want to go along for that ride."

The first three Indy movies took in $1.2 billion worldwide.

Disney's action sequel, "The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian," slipped to second place with $23 million, for a total of $91.1 million over two weeks. The company expected the movie to continue to play well as school lets out.

"Once you start getting the mass number of kids out of school, it turns into some serious money," said Chuck Viane, president of distribution for Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures.

Marvel Studios' "Iron Man" clinched another $20.1 million, bringing its domestic total to $252.3 million. A sequel is set for release in 2010.

The 20th Century Fox comedy, "What Happens in Vegas," continued to roll with $9 million in its third week, for a total of $54.2 million.

Fox senior vice president Bert Livingstone said high gas prices were encouraging people to see movies rather than take long trips away from home.

"This is the last great bargain," Livingstone said.

But movie receipts were about 16 percent smaller than last year's Memorial Day weekend, and revenue for the year to date is down nearly 4 percent at $3.3 billion, with attendance off nearly 7 percent.

By this time last year, there were seven movies that grossed over $100 million: "Pirates," "Shrek the Third," "Spider-Man 3," "300," "Wild Hogs," "Blades of Glory" and "Ghost Rider," according to Media By Numbers. This year, there are only three: "Iron Man," "Dr. Seuss' Horton Hears a Who!" and "Indiana Jones."

"It's no wonder that we're down in terms of revenues and attendance," Dergarabedian said. "You don't get out of a deficit like this overnight."

Estimated ticket sales for Friday through Sunday at U.S. and Canadian theaters, according to Media By Numbers LLC. Final figures will be released Tuesday.

1. "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull," $101 million.

2. "The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Cas

 

Ahem, I'm hoping Lucas and Spielberg and Ford and Paramount are all looking at these numbers and thinking it'd be a good thing to get on Indy V ASAP

-sj loves kevin spacey

 

Unless they already have a rough draft of the screenplay (or at least a rough idea of what the story should involve) I'm scared it might take them years... but hopefully, if they already have something in mind, perhaps they could crank it out by 2011 at the latest.... if it isn't done by then, chances are it won't ever be.

 

If it's going to happen they need to get it made within two to three years.

 

Monday should be about $25 Million, give or take. These are actually very stellar numbers. The way this thing performed over the weekend, not only increasing from Thursday to Friday...but then from Friday to Saturday is remarkable! A good sign this movie will have legs. Quite impressive. As displeased as I was with the climax of the film, I do hope they get cracking on a fifth film. I thought the performances were very good and I could see Ford in the role once again. It's clear that despite a lot of people's misgivings about the end of the film, they still loved seeing him in action (put me in that camp).

Let's get cracking on a fifth.

-matthew

 

The estimated gross for Monday is $25 million.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=indianajones4.htm

The total 4 day estimate (Fri-Mon) is $126 million. The 5 day estimate that includes Thursday is $151 million

 

Yeah, like before Harrison's 70 And if they are planning on doing a VI, I would suggest they write them together and film them back to back like BTTF, because I don't really see how Harrison would be able to do a sixth one...

In any case, with all the scripts they've had, I feel like they *should* have other ideas around If it's started now, you could give it a generous one year to get to shooting point and conceivably film next late summer/fall. Now, I highly, highly doubt that's going to happen. It's completely possible but I have a feeling they wouldn't do it that quickly. I think it's much more likely that a summer 2010 shooting schedule would be what you'd be looking at, 2011 release date.

The thing about that is, it's probably conceivable... but it would also mean that Harrison would be 68 during filming Granted, he's in much better shape than most men his age and he rocked Skull but it still makes me nervous. I feel like if that happens there's almost no way they could do a sixth film, unless it's with Mutt in the lead and Indy as more of a Henry Sr. character, which *might* work but also seems like it just wouldn't feel right.

-sj loves kevin spacey

 

$151,081,000 to be exact.

Box Office Mojo's Indiana Jones and the KotCS Page
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=indianajones4.htm

It would be great if they under estimated and KotCS actually made a couple million more.

 

Domestic Box Office 5-Day Estimate = $151,081,000
Foreign Box Office 5-Day Estimate = $146,455,434
Worldwide Box Office 5-Day Estimate = $297,536,434

Box Office Mojo's Indiana Jones and the KotCS Page
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=indianajones4.htm

 

Paramount's estimating a worldwide total of around $311 million.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/box_office

Paramount Pictures estimated the action sequel made $151.1 million in the U.S. and Canada from Thursday to the holiday Monday and $160 million overseas.

I also wouldn't be surprised if the domestic total ended up being a bit closer to $153 million once the final figures are reported.

 

I just saw the new 311 million dollar estimate. Here's hoping the domestic estimate increases as well.

 

If nothing else, this will almost certainly be the best May that Paramount's had in many, many years.

 

Sequel! Sequel! Sequel! Sequel!

 

Four sequels is pushing it I think. One more would be great two would be fantastic.

 

Tuesday = $7,604,606
Wednesday = $6,040,893

Domestic Total = $165,603,944

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

Box Office Mojo's Indiana Jones and the KotCS Page
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=indianajones4.htm

 

That Tuesday to Wednesday drop worries me a bit. Thursday's numbers will be a better barometer on how well this movie will perform into the summer. There is a possibility $300 million could be the ceiling. But we will have a better idea of that after we get the rest of this weeks numbers.

EDIT - I am just pointing out worst case BTW. I don't want to frighten anyone. This movie could end up anywhere between $290-430 million. It's really that wide open, I am just saying that twenty percent drop between days could lead to a 60% this weekend and that's where the $300 million estimate comes into play. Like I said, Thursdays numbers are going to be very important to see.

-matthew