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Senate Octoborat Surprise - The 2020 General Election Presidential Thread (*review first post guidelines*)

Discussion in 'Community' started by Point Given , Aug 27, 2020.

  1. blackmyron

    blackmyron Chosen One star 6

    Registered:
    Oct 29, 2005
    I love everyone's optimism that free elections will still be held in 2022 and 2024 if Trump wins again.

    But I admit it could be worse - if there was a worldwide rise of authoritarianism, for instance, a 2nd Trump term might have catastrophic consequences.
     
  2. anakinfansince1983

    anakinfansince1983 I Am Speaking in Four Realms star 10 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Mar 4, 2011
    The only way Trump could lose MI and PA and still win is if he picked up a couple of states that he lost in 2016. What states would those be?
     
  3. Darth Guy

    Darth Guy Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Aug 16, 2002
    I don't know who's going to win the election at this point but I do know Joe Biden is unlikely to stop the rise of what Trump represents. It's not about just one election. Even if Biden wins this year, do we really think he'll gain broad, strong popular support over the course of his term and Kamala Harris is guaranteed to win against whatever Republican psychopath in 2024? To me it feels like I'm voting for ****ing Hindenberg in that Biden is an old conservative fool with progressive "cognitive decline" who represents the dying old order that gave rise to Trumpism in the first place.
     
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2020
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  4. blackmyron

    blackmyron Chosen One star 6

    Registered:
    Oct 29, 2005
    Being a black-hearted cynic, I tend to go towards the negative, so I'll throw out my go-to for a positive example from the past: reading either Battle Cry of Freedom or Shelby Foote's incredibly detailed Civil War series - specifically the political portions.
    Abraham Lincoln had no chance at reelection in 1864. Seriously. His former chief general, McClellan, who botched the war against the Confederacy to begin with, was running on a platform to declare a cease-fire, which everyone took to really be ending the war with the South victorious since their victory condition was for the Union to let them be. Grant's military campaign against Richmond was a meat grinder stalemate, and Sherman was failing to take out Johnston's army as his supply lines grew more and more tenuous. Lincoln was fully prepared to lose the election. It was hard to parse this as a kid - that from a simple military standpoint, it would seem that the North occupying the whole of the MIssissippi River valley, most of Kentucky and Tennessee, and keeping Lee bottled up in Richmond, wasn't a big success - but again the South's victory conditions weren't to 'defeat or conquer the Union' and war was becoming increasingly unpopular.
    And then, when the Democratic Party was about to formally nominate McClellan, the news hit the paper that Sherman had taken Atlanta. Suddenly, Lincoln's entire standing had a reversal of fortune and he ended up victorious. By 55% to 45%, incidentally.

    This isn't to say that there is a direct analogous situation here - simply that anything could happen. The very existence of the pandemic was certainly not predicted in 2019 and has thrown the entire race into disarray. I had written Florida off, for instance, at the start of the year, but at this point it is very much in play. And much of this is on Trump himself - it was talked about back in 2017 about how Trump would probably fare extremely poorly if a crisis came up, and... here we are. Can you imagine what would've happened if Trump had continued being his usual racist, con man self on every aspect but managed to pull a massive PR victory over handling the coronavirus? This 'black swan' effect was very much an opportunity to swing either way, and Trump demonstrated that he is not willing to change one iota of his way of doing things even when it is extremely detrimental to himself.
    And what did we see during his 'epic' convention? One of Trump's fans murdering people during protests over an extreme case of police brutality. A major disaster event that struck Red states where Trump couldn't be bothered to even pretend to do his job as President, and shone a spotlight on his stealing desperately needed FEMA funds to temporarily fund a half-assed unemployment effort on his part.
    What are my personal feelings about odds in this election? Too Close To Tell would be my suggestion at this point. However Trump might be doing at this very point, I can see a number of problems impacting him coming up - coronavirus deaths and infections are going to be spiking again with the schools reopening and people just not giving a **** in general about being safe. Trump's blatantly obvious 'October Surprise' vaccine is severely undercut by his own base, many of whom are anti-vaxxers, and by his own downplaying of the virus all this time. Evictions are going to skyrocket. Trump's unemployment scheme is going to be wholly insufficient. The economy is in much, much worse that it looks and there is a chance that the house of cards may just collapse before the election. Hurricane season is going to peak next month.
    And that's assuming that we don't have some other unexpected surprise happen between then and now.
    Sometimes we don't want to admit to ourselves that prefer believing that something terrible will happen rather than admit that we don't know what will happen, because the unknown can be more terrifying. Take it from someone who spent their life waiting for the nuclear bombs to drop.
     
  5. Princess_Tina

    Princess_Tina Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    May 10, 2001
    In the meantime, the Biden campaign trolled Trump by claiming the site Keep America Great.

    OK maybe that by itself won't turn the tide, but I think it's a pretty good campaign stunt.

    @blackmyron - you left out the much-rumored "October surprise" Barr reportedly has in store to announce some sort of a Biden investigation right before elections, obviously it will be phony but that won't stop him from putting on an act.
     
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2020
  6. Yodaminch

    Yodaminch Chosen One star 6

    Registered:
    Mar 6, 2002
    Behold the nightmare scenario:

    [​IMG]

    I've basically made the traditional red states red. I gave Biden Michigan and Pennsylvania. I gave Trump both Carolinas and Arizona (which he is highly likely to lose) but I gave Biden Nevada. I also fully made Maine blue assuming anger at Susan Collins motivates enough voters. And despite his Goodyear mistake, I gave Trump Ohio.

    And yeah, I gave him Florida because let's be honest, we know he'll probably get it. I also left Wisconsin with Trump.

    Now, here's what's curious about this scenario. If any state flips Biden, he wins handily. So if Biden gets Arizona as expected, flips Wisconsin, one of the Carolinas, or Ohio, or manages a bigger upset like Florida, then it is game over for Trump.
     
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2020
  7. Lordban

    Lordban Chosen One star 6

    Registered:
    Nov 9, 2000
    It's not an altogether out of place parallel. And it's why the battles to replace "vintage" Democrats with progressives this year and in 2022, and uniting early behind a new progressive candidate for the 2024 primary, is going to be important.
     
  8. Princess_Tina

    Princess_Tina Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    May 10, 2001
    Wait, I forgot what happens when the Electoral College is tied? It goes it the House?
     
  9. Yodaminch

    Yodaminch Chosen One star 6

    Registered:
    Mar 6, 2002
    In a typical time yes. But do you really think Trump or the GOP will let that happen? They'll sue to turn states Red or demand a redo.
     
  10. Princess_Tina

    Princess_Tina Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    May 10, 2001
    Total electoral chaos in the middle of a global pandemic and worst recession ever - and Happy Holidays to you too, America! :(
     
  11. Bilbo Fett

    Bilbo Fett Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Apr 19, 2017
    The presidential election goes to the House but not on a membership vote. Each state's House delegation gets 1 vote (Trump would likely win this). Vice-president would go to the Senate but each member gets a vote there.
     
  12. Point Given

    Point Given Manager star 6 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Dec 12, 2006
    Trump would win 270-268 in that scenario if Biden wins PA and MI and no other state.
     
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2020
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  13. Luke02

    Luke02 Chosen One star 6

    Registered:
    Sep 19, 2002
    It's very unlikely there is a 269 tie because Maine is not a winner all take state. I don't see Joe winning the entire state as I think Trump would pick up at least one electoral college vote. I also don't see how Joe loses Wisconsin at this point though the Kenosha situation might have scared some swing voters into inaction.
     
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  14. Bilbo Fett

    Bilbo Fett Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Apr 19, 2017
    Scared swings into inaction or stirred up some previously willing to accept inaction and sit this one out. It's way too early to tell yet but scared voters tend to have a response.
     
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2020
  15. Luke02

    Luke02 Chosen One star 6

    Registered:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Yep which I must admit the GOP called Joe and the Democrats out as they suddenly started speaking out against the riots/growing violence and really lawlessness that has been going on in the past few months as it's starting to show up in the polls.Joe has really a fine line to walk these past few months of reassuring the middle/swing voters that he will not let the chaos to continue on but at the same time not alienate his base.
     
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2020
  16. Yodaminch

    Yodaminch Chosen One star 6

    Registered:
    Mar 6, 2002
    Here's the more realistic scenario with Joe losing Wisconsin:
    [​IMG]

    Again, still assumes Joe doesn't pick up Arizona which seems highly unlikely given Mark Kelly's current standing.
     
  17. Princess_Tina

    Princess_Tina Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    May 10, 2001
    Could Arizona save American democracy? Those 11 electoral votes look mighty attractive all of a sudden.
     
  18. 3sm1r

    3sm1r Jedi Grand Master star 5

    Registered:
    Dec 27, 2017
    What are the tools that Trump has to suppress the vote?
    What is in his power and what is not?
     
  19. blackmyron

    blackmyron Chosen One star 6

    Registered:
    Oct 29, 2005
    I'd almost agree about Wisconsin, except that the poor conservatives can't catch a break with 'lone wolves' doing exactly as they fantasize. That tends to alienate non-conservatives, for some reason.
    Wrecking the post office. Having friendly state governments actively work against/invalidating votes (let's be honest, this is exactly how Bush won in 2000). Encouraging followers to intimidate voters at voting centers in the name of 'checking for voter fraud'.
    As far as what's in his 'power', it's basically 'what he can get away with'. The only real checks on Donald Trump are his laziness, inability to change, unwillingness to doing anything resembling hard work, and - most importantly - his deep-seated fear of looking like a loser.
     
  20. Princess_Tina

    Princess_Tina Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    May 10, 2001
    GOP has been doing it for years already by purging registration lists, adding photo ID requirements, etc.
    Trump is adding the USPS sabotage, among other things.
    Local and foreign actors continue a nonstop campaign of social-media manipulation, which the tech companies won't always stop.
    Here's a rare example of a fake social media operation that got stopped by Twitter.
     
  21. Bilbo Fett

    Bilbo Fett Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Apr 19, 2017
    How Bush won but with the added bonus of having an actual name attached to the hanging chad. That opens up the door to some of the same games that are played with voter roll purges. "Tommy Thomas" .... yeah that signature looks like a match to me. "Tommy Gutierrez" ... I have a bad feeling about this one.
     
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2020
  22. SateleNovelist11

    SateleNovelist11 Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Jan 10, 2015
    Revolution. Revolution. Revolution.
     
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  23. Princess_Tina

    Princess_Tina Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    May 10, 2001
    If it becomes painfully obvious Trump is attempting to steal the election, the **** will really hit the fan, it will be way more intense than what we saw earlier this year with the #BLM protests nationwide, people will be even more fed up with the economic catastrophe, pandemic, etc.
     
  24. SateleNovelist11

    SateleNovelist11 Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Jan 10, 2015
    I think it's needed. Trump Jr's girlfriend was acting like Rita Repulsa, my Eponym's ex said.

    Yeah, Trump is basically acting like Lord Zedd with no brain.
     
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  25. JEDI-RISING

    JEDI-RISING Chosen One star 6

    Registered:
    Apr 15, 2005
    seeing that big party on the white house lawn with fireworks going off put me in mind of The Great Gatsby for some reason
     
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