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Senate Russia: its impact on the world, its invasion of Ukraine, and its future

Discussion in 'Community' started by Ghost, Sep 24, 2011.

  1. Lord Vivec

    Lord Vivec Chosen One star 9

    Registered:
    Apr 17, 2006
    Disclaimer: I don't really know how to say this in a way that doesn't sound mean, so I'm going to start by saying that I'm not trying to sound mean here.

    You could always think about things a little before posting?
     
  2. Darth Guy

    Darth Guy Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Aug 16, 2002
    It struck me as really weird that you'd say something like that, Rogue, given that I'm sure you'd take issue with people claiming that North America is "historically Anglo-Saxon."

    The fact is that Russia has no claim to Crimea just because ethnic Russians live there. The USSR transferred control of Crimea from Russia to Ukraine shortly after WWII and the Russian Federation had reiterated its respect for post-Soviet borders in treaties with Ukraine.
     
  3. Rogue_Ten

    Rogue_Ten Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    Aug 18, 2002

    well, no, i just dont feel obligated to spend a ton of time thinking about or addressing a hypothetical of a hypothetical that you have formed off of darth guy's side-track
     
  4. Rogue_Ten

    Rogue_Ten Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    Aug 18, 2002

    you're right, i was ignorant of the historical population of crimean tatars. i was referring to it being a historic possession of russia and having a majority population of ethnic russians. again, im just happy to have a large population of ethnic russians relatively "out of the way" as the regime's agenda for ukraine unfolds

    obviously russia's motivations are not so altruistic
     
  5. Lord Vivec

    Lord Vivec Chosen One star 9

    Registered:
    Apr 17, 2006
    Also what does "historically [race/ethnicity/nationality]" even matter?
     
  6. Lord Vivec

    Lord Vivec Chosen One star 9

    Registered:
    Apr 17, 2006
    It's not Darth Guy's side-track, it's kind of yours. You're the one who brought up areas being 'historically russian.'
     
  7. Rogue_Ten

    Rogue_Ten Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    Aug 18, 2002
    i misspoke and have acknowledged that. it still doesnt obligate me to address an almost non-sequitur hypothetical based on a situation (repatriation of crimean tatars) that isnt and has never been under discussion
     
  8. Rogue_Ten

    Rogue_Ten Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    Aug 18, 2002

    as i have repeatedely acknowledged in response to darth guy, it is a silly game to play. the ethnic russians in crimea at the present time should be the prime concern
     
  9. Lord Vivec

    Lord Vivec Chosen One star 9

    Registered:
    Apr 17, 2006
  10. Vaderize03

    Vaderize03 Manager Emeritus star 6 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Oct 25, 1999
  11. Lord Vivec

    Lord Vivec Chosen One star 9

    Registered:
    Apr 17, 2006
    At most it'll be more sanctions. The west will not engage Russia militarily.
     
  12. Rogue_Ten

    Rogue_Ten Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    Aug 18, 2002
    dont pursue lu bu

    and by lu bu i mean russia
     
  13. dp4m

    dp4m Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Nov 8, 2001

    For now.

    One assumes Russia would not have any action against a full NATO member, but I'm not 100% certain what the NATO / PfP (of which both Russia and Ukraine are members) relationship actually entails
     
  14. Lord Vivec

    Lord Vivec Chosen One star 9

    Registered:
    Apr 17, 2006
    I think it's a fairly safe assumption to make that Russia won't act directly against a full NATO member.

    Although if Russia did, *would* NATO respond militarily? NATO has always been in existence as a deterrent but never actually been fully tested against another great power.
     
  15. dp4m

    dp4m Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Nov 8, 2001
    Right, that's the trick though, right? Which is essentially what caused WWI, iirc -- the treaties that forced everyone into action.

    If NATO doesn't respond militarily against an actual aggression against one of it's primary member-states then the whole deal is off and it'll become a free-for-all. Not least of which is the US military presence in Germany will probably be forcibly evicted. I can't imagine they'd be allowed to stay in that case.

    I mean, don't get me wrong -- I also don't think Russia's that stupid -- but it'd be a clusterfluff of a massive proportion if NATO didn't respond to that.
     
  16. Vaderize03

    Vaderize03 Manager Emeritus star 6 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Oct 25, 1999
    A bigger questions is: what happens if Russia goes after the Baltics?

    They would never be so stupid as to invade Germany or France (or even Poland), but Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are different stories. I could totally see Putin pushing the limits here, in which case, NATO will absolutely have to act.
     
  17. Lord Vivec

    Lord Vivec Chosen One star 9

    Registered:
    Apr 17, 2006
    Of course NATO would fall apart if they didn't react. My point is that NATO has never been tested to react to a great power before. Russia attacking a NATO member would create a situation that would be new and unpredictable.
     
  18. Darth Guy

    Darth Guy Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Aug 16, 2002
    Why would Russia invade the Baltics? Invading Ukraine was stupid, but they have clear strategic and economic interests in Crimea and the resources in the Sea of Azov. Plus they're already a lost cause as far as Russia's sphere of influence goes.
     
    Rogue_Ten and Lord Vivec like this.
  19. Rogue_Ten

    Rogue_Ten Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    Aug 18, 2002

    because Evil Empire duh
     
  20. KissMeImARebel

    KissMeImARebel Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Nov 25, 2003
    Yeah I don't think the incentive is there for the Baltic states (although I confess to not knowing much about the subject). That plus NATO membership makes them pretty safe IMO.

    The only incentive I could see would be the desire to create a land connection to Kaliningrad Oblast, but that would mean having to go through Lithuania (NATO) and either Belarus (not NATO) or Latvia (NATO). And from what I've read, I get the sense that Russia wouldn't see that option as particularly alluring. It could make things economically easier on the people living in Kaliningrad (it has higher costs of living due to it's isolation) and save Russia some money on the subsidies it provides to try and offset those costs. Hardly worth breaching NATO for IMO. At least in the current political landscape.
     
  21. Rogue_Ten

    Rogue_Ten Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    Aug 18, 2002
    i think russia's got a big enough helping of "nightmare kleptocracy" without needing the baltic states' share as well
     
  22. Ghost

    Ghost Chosen One star 8

    Registered:
    Oct 13, 2003
    Some regions in the Baltic states have been asking Russia to annex them since they took Crimea, but it will probably amount to nothing.
     
  23. Lord Vivec

    Lord Vivec Chosen One star 9

    Registered:
    Apr 17, 2006
    Ghost I think you mean Balkans.

    EDIT: Is Transnistria even in the Balkans?
     
  24. Point Given

    Point Given Manager star 7 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Dec 12, 2006
    The maps I'm seeing seems to put it outside the Balkans. But yeah I'm pretty sure you don't mean Baltic States, Ghost.
     
  25. Ghost

    Ghost Chosen One star 8

    Registered:
    Oct 13, 2003
    No, Estonia, which is in the Baltics.

    (Transnistria is Moldova)



    Estonia has particular reason to be concerned about what’s happening in Ukraine.
    In the wake of Yanukovych’s ousting, Russia vowed to protect Russian speakers in Crimea and Ukraine. While the Kremlin maintained it did not invade Crimea, Western eyes see the increased presence of Russian military uniform-wearing gunmen and its support for the referendum as an invasion into sovereign territory.

    How does this relate to Estonia? Reuters reported last week a Russian envoy to the United Nations Human Rights Council in Geneva was quoted as saying Moscow is “concerned by steps taken” in Estonia to use language to “segregate and isolate groups,” referencing a similar situation in Ukraine.

    http://globalnews.ca/news/1219997/why-moldova-estonia-may-feel-uneasy-about-russias-actions/


    and


    http://www.voxeurop.eu/en/content/article/3985381-little-russia-wanted-break-away

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