Discussion Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy Star Wars Movie - NOT FILMING April 7th, 2024 (Blame Fredrik!)

The politics (or lack thereof) depend on the kind of story they want to tell I think. With the PT, Lucas had to set the stage for this grand galactic conflict so the demands of the story he had and wanted to tell required some explicit and nuanced political scenes, and this new film doesn't necessarily have to have that. It could be more like the OT which was bare-bones on that sort of stuff. Would it have been cool to actually see a scene of Palpatine dissolving the Senate in ANH rather than just having Tarkin mention it? Yeah, maybe, but hardly necessary. If I had to guess I would say they are going to stay away from TPM style politics and just go with the OT style approach. It's more appealing to the general audience.

 

In both Legends and Canon it was established that there are multiple force religions and sects outside of the Jedi and Sith. The Path of the Open Hand, the Sorcerers of Tund etc Even the Knights of Ren are stated to be a seperate Dark Side cult than the Sith going back hundreds of years.

There’s a lot of directions they could go.

 

I think they’ll have at least two shots before that happens. The Levy movie will be too far along in production at that point for it to be cancelled if the Mando movie underperforms.

 

Since The Mando movie has a budget of $120 mil. It doesn’t tell me they are using the film as a test for future films. As much as they are using it for a quick easy buck. Infact it’s going to have to do insanely bad to flop on that budget. And if it did do insanely bad on that budget, they would probably be right in stopping these movies altogether.

 

It’s nice to hear a Star Wars screenwriter talking about philosophy. Lucas did put real world philosophical ideas from Buddhism, Stoicism, Christianity and other religions into the Jedi back in the day, yet it seems to be very rare that people working on the franchise ever mention this.

 

When I say ‘all bets are off’, it doesn’t necessarily mean everything will be cancelled… but rather that their schedule will be reviewed and there would probably be casualties.

I *do* think they are using it to ‘test’ the water as to how well new live action films land… but I don’t think this film will flop… And it would have to be a massive flop, IMO, for it to affect the current SW schedule.

 

Yes, and intresting enough alot of the writers have been writing about politics and espionage. I think this will be more adult like ROTS and ESB.

 

And Rogue One and Andor. I get the sense that a lot of Star Wars writers and directors were really inspired by this movie-show combo.

 

Not everything is related to those two. It can simply be OT and even the politics of the Prequels. As what USA is going through now is what was happening in the Prequels. George Lucas was ahead of his time

 

The Roman Empire was ahead of its time

 

I think we are in a different time now. I think the TV shows may have an impact on the films box office. I mean can you believe the amount of live action content we have had? Generally film quality content. So that is going to take some shine away from the Mando movie for sure. Id say thats to be expected. As to how much shine. Probably not major but may fall under $700mil.

 

Movies still the big money getter and what most people want. Not many people watch tv shows

 

In that case most the audience wont even know who Mando or Grogu are. Lessening said appeal anyway.

 

“Baby Yoda” has kinda been a phenomenon beyond the show, though.

 

The difference here is you got your cool Iron man and his cute baby alien. Prepare for Grogu to be the face of this movie.

 

grogu in happy meals and buckets of chicken, soap, toothbrushes and pez dispensers.

mando will be big. It’s the return of Star Wars to the big screen so it will make money. So will Rey’s return.

 

Oh it will make money for sure. It can very easily make money on that budget. But the truth is we haven't been without Star Wars for years. Star Wars is not special anymore. The desire for more in this universe is much harder to have when you are constantly getting it in. You already got 3 seasons of The Mandalorian. Whats going to make this do crazy numbers? taking into considering of course that Mando series 3 was a drop in viewing figures.

I don't think we follow old school Star Wars box office rules anymore because we have had so much of it. You want Star Wars? cool. We got 3 seasons of The Mandalorian, Boba Fett. Obi Wan, Andor, Ahsoka, the alcolyte, Skeleton Crew.

And of course if you have no interest in the shows, why would you watch the films? It really asks what is it people are going to see Star Wars for.

 

This film specifically will be judged in comparison to the ST, and especially whether it makes more money than TROS. An Obi-Wan Kenobi film would have had a similar bar to clear in relation to the PT.

 

I don't think it will make more money than TROS. For the reasons i give above. But It just has no reason to be considered anything special. It could make $600 mil and still be considered a hit for Disney though. For the budget they gave it, they ain't going all in with this as such huge event.

I think an Obi Wan movie would have done really well had Disney of had the confidence for it. It had all the right ingredients to be an appealing project. When you think the film had Ewan, Hayden, Vader and several other cast members back. it could have done very really.

In comparison to say Mando. id say ObI Wan stood a better chance. And if Obi Wan was made into a film today i still think it would stand a better chance than Mando. It holds a lot of film nostalgia while Mando is basically movie version of the show. And its probably going to feel that way too when watching it.

 

SW hasn't truly been special since 1983. A different time, a different era when the movie going experience was more unique. A time when you had to see films on the cinema to experience them, because there was no streaming option 2 weeks later in 4k that you could wait for. A great time to be alive and cinema was king. Yes there was a shedload of hype and anticipation for TPM, but once that film hit it wasn't seen as 'special' as the OT was back in the day.

There are no box office rules anymore, consumer habits have changed to the detriment of the cinema I think.

Anyone what the budget was of the ST films in comparison to what they made at the box office overall?

 

I think TFA is - and mostly because it had such strong ties to the legacy of the OT characters/period - might be the last Star Wars mega-blockbuster, for a long time. Its still number one in all time domestic gross list. Eventually, inflation will catch up with it, but i do not really see any of the scheduled future films doing those numbers. Summer box office is supposed to resume back to normal this year they say, so in general, its a optimistic view for movies opening during May - August.

With a budget of a reported $ 120 mill, Mando / Grogu film will have to make around $ 500 mill to make profit ( even less). I say it has a good chance to do that. We are still in a bit of uncharted territory for non saga Star Wars films, so it will need all the extra backing it can get - to make over that amount. So somehwere between Solo and Rogue One will be my realistic guess. Say, $ 650 mill will be fine. A lot can happen before next spring though, marketing needs to build etc. Not sure if the Avengers movie is going to meet that May 2025 date as well.

PS: Just noticed this is not Mando/ Grogu thread, but the Chinoy film.

 

Star Wars has always been better as a hype machine. The decline usually happens after the hype fades. Long time spans without Star Wars builds up hype. Because new becomes exciting. But what happens when there is plenty of it? Is all thats left is those desiring for the theater experience again? Is that really enough at this point?

I think the Mando movie could make less than $400 mil and still be profitable. There seem to be the lower stakes here. As if you was to say double the budget to count for marketing and whatever then its $240 mil. And as to how much extra marketing and whatever else adds. I cant be that much over it.

It will probably make more than $500 mil though.

 

This is in part about rebuilding the franchise/IP. This film doesn’t have to be the biggest film, it just needs to be a ‘good’ SW film that encourages audiences to want to see more. That’s how you rebuild good will and interest IMO. Looking at the new Jurassic World/Park trailer… I’d say that’s *not* the way to do it.

 

I'd also add that the quick buck they went for in rattling out the ST wan't the way to go either. They should be taking their time and not be too affected by a film not hitting a billion (plucking a random figure out of the air). This film with Rey seems a way off yet given they've had another change in writer, but I hope that they can get it in to production before Mando & Grogu comes out, because otherwise if that doesn't do what they expect then you can see a knee jerk reaction affecting what they do with the Rey movie.

 

I think Mando & Grogu will do fine... I don't think it will make a billion... but neither do I think that's what Disney expect. In terms of Star Wars live action films they'll consider this a 'soft' re-launch i.e. it doesn't have to be the biggest film of the year, but it starts to get audiences interested in seeing SW back on the big screen. If Disney are expecting this to do huge business, then they really are lost... but I don't believe they expect that.