Solo Solo box-office discussion

Christopher Robin looks like it could be beautiful. I've been intrigued by it since it was announced.

 

Things not looking good for WIT. BP will reign again at #1 this weekend!

 

Its weekends easily trump the losses during the week. Not to mention that its weekdays are starting to see pretty good drops on their own (down just 40% this week) with spring break coming up. The weekends alone should add 100m unless the drops jump up drastically. Even if the dailies would otherwise match those of TLJ, BP would reach at least 636m (discounting any holiday boost that is). Seeing how BP is having pretty good week-by-week drops for the weekdays, while TLJ now has two weeks with high 60 and around 50% drops coming up, BP should make more money than that from the weekdays.

Deadpool dropped around 46% against three openers that combined for 100m on that weekend, and it followed that by by dropping in the 20s and 30s while Cloverfield opened with ~25m, Divergent opened with 29m and even stayed below a 40% drop against the opening of Batman vs Superman. With BP so far having great weekend drops for a movie of that size, I don't see any reason to assume that the upcoming openers will prevent average drops of around 40%.

Something around 640m sounds like the absolute bottom to me. And that would require worse drops than so far, and spring break having no effect at all

 

BP will beat TLJ domestically.
Chine estimate are 118 million total so TLJ worlwide total won't be beaten. BP need 200 million in china to beat TLJ

 

Sorry but still not seeing it. It's still not going to be at 600m domestic by the end of weekend 5 and will also likely still be behind TLJ at that point still as well (TLJ was at 594m by the end of weekend 5 (it will probably only be getting a couple million a day during the weekdays of week 5)).

It very well may beat TLJ's domestic total but again if it does it isn't going to be by much. It definitely won't be getting 660 or 670m.

 

At some point, BP will start to fade just because people will be gearing up for IW. They will not keep going to see BP forever due to the fact that many of the similar fans will need to be saving their time and money for IW and give the movies a break.

 

I think the success of BP will take some money from IW. Many people who go 1 or 2 times a year at theater who were planning to go see IW aren't going to watch it

 

I don't think that's true. Sure, that might describe some people, but in the case of Marvel and the way it has been designed brilliantly, I think that BP will only serve to help. We will be seeing the Panther plus more of the characters from that film and Marvel is on a press frenzy. Unless IW gets a horrible rating review, it will ride high. Not as high as BP but should easily get into the $500 millions.

 

Where exactly do you get this "600m after weekend 5" from?
I never said anything like that at all. I said that all remaining weekends will add another 100m to the total. With BP already being at 520m entering the upcoming weekend, this means the weekends alone would bring it to 620m. With BP likely having a Thursday that is in the range of the one TLJ had, and with BP seeing much better week-to-week drops than TLJ will have in the two upcoming weeks, matching TLJ's weekdays the rest of the way should be rather easy. That's another 20m right there, putting it at 640m.

Any improvement on TLJ's dailies - which could be possible with spring break coming up - or even better weekends than expected (which has been the norm so far) and the movie could go up further. It could end up finishing below JW, but at this point the chances of it topping Titanic should be higher than it finishing near TLJ.

 

Ouch!!!! That would be horrible for RPO. I mean REALLY bad! But, I mean, it all looks like one big video game cut scene (do they even have those in vg's any more? I haven't played one in MANY years!). I doubt Spielberg would be very happy either!

 

RPG have spielberg, if its good it will have leg. Even if i think the review will not be good

 

It's going to be interesting to see where Black Panther lands. This weekend is make or break it as it will soon run out of steam. (right? Its' got to lose steam. This isn't Avatar or Titanic which came out December. BP came out in February. February movies don't rule March. But wouldn't it be cool if didn't run out of steam?)

We are really seeing how strong a holiday boost The Last Jedi got. Black Panther is loosing ground on the week days still. Going day for day, TLJ at this point in it's run has gotten through the holidays. So BP could catch up, but there is also some real competition coming it's way. (Right? Some of these other movies look good. Right?) Thor Ragnorok is out on BluRay, will that effect BP? And as other people noted, IW is coming up fast.

Will BP's success help or hurt IW? Those Entertainment Weekly Covers with all the heroes on them really sell what IW is about. Do we see some Earth shattering opening weekend, second only to TFA and then a steeper fall off? This doesn't feel like the time to bet against Marvel.

But with so much Marvel in late April and May, it might really help push Solo to stand out as something if not new, then fresh and fun. A lot of that comes down to the last trailer and final PR push. But for as great as Super Hero movies are doing, I think it can help Solo a lot that it's not one. I thought two Star Wars films 5 months apart would feel way too soon. But in this new world of two mega movies released a month, the gap between TLJ and Solo doesn't feel so small.

I said early $430 domestic. $900 WW. I'm sticking with that still. Maybe that forecast will get brighter as we get closer. Maybe it will get less. Going to be an interesting summer for sure.

 

I hope it not only does well because I'm a fan(and of course I hope it's good) but I hope it does well just to annoy those who denounce it. I mean really, there are so many "fans" who hate fans.

 

@Jedi_Sith_Smuggler_Droid

Projections have this upcoming weekend being $35-40 million. If that holds, that will easily put it in the Top 5 for fourth weekends all time. Really it should land in either the 4th or 3rd spot and really the 2nd slot is possible with $42 million (TFA). BP could be around $550 million come end of business on Sunday and really not much in it's way for awhile. I think it can hold pretty well over the next month as we head towards April.

 

Wrinkle in time is a disney movie for child, the review won't really matter much it will do good number

 

TLJ hasn't done that bad this week, holding around the $24,000 mean marker. I don't think that the movie will be getting any $1 theater rises and will fizzle out by the time of the digital release next week and the blue-ray/4K release on March 27th. I mean, I haven't seen the theater count go up and we are heading to March 10th. BP will do very good and soon will surpass TLJ in the domestic box-office and reach the billion marker. As for IW, no way its going to suck. Hell no, and I'm going to love seeing crush everyone in the box office, then come back here and watch you guys rationalize why it was so good, while at the same time probably either blasting TLJ for not making enough or glorifying it because it was super.

The movie you guys need to worry about it Deadpool 2. That movie could take the Memorial weekend from Han Solo. Avengers will be a huge movie and not a bust. Han Solo could be the bust.

 

I don't get why marvel fan who hated TLJ come here, just go in marvel forum.
I'm strarting to think IW won't beat AoU worlwide. You maybe think it doesn't matter but it does.
AoU net profit was 382 million, but the bidget for IW is 250million highest than the budget of AoU. So if IW made the same amount of money than AoU at the Bo, his net profit will be 180 million, its low for a movie like that. For example TFA net profit was 780 million.
We will have to wait april to know net profit of TLJ but id the budget is 200 million it will be around 430 million.

 

I don't think that anyone has suggested that IW will bust. It was always seen as the main contender for most successful movie of the year, something that now gets threatened by Black Panther.

And I really don't see how Deadpool 2 is supposed to take the Memorial weekend from Solo. Deadpool started with 132m (152m if you add the holiday Monday). It then dropped to 56m. Even if you add the holiday monday and give the movie a huge boost, it still wouldn't reach 100m for the 4-day weekend. It seems highly unlikely that Solo isn't going to top 100m 4-day, when Rogue One topped 150m on a three day weekend. I mean, it isn't 100% impossible that Deadpool 2 goes completely through the roof, but with BP already doing that, and Infinity War probably being really huge as well, I don't think Deadpool 2 would reach the level required to do that.

I wouldn't expect Solo to come all that close to Rogue One's totals, but I'd say some go a bit too far in how low the movie could go. This is still Star Wars. For all the success Black Panther is having, it will still "only" be in the same class of movies as TLJ, a bit in front domestically, likely a bit behind worldwide. While Solo is no regular episode, it will still create more than enough interest to deliver a pretty much total.

 

Long range tracking for Infinity War courtesy of pro.boxoffice.com is $215 - 235 million opening weekend, $490 - 590 million total domestic gross. No projections yet for Solo.

 

It seems like TLJ is just having its tiny theater-increase, at roughly the same time Rogue One was seeing it. Rogue One added one theater in its 13th week, going from 165 to 166. Then added 13 in its 14th week, jumping up to 179, and then added another 88 for week 15, topping out at 267.

TLJ, meanwhile, has added 25 theaters in its 13th week, going from 221 to 246 theaters. The Friday estimate stands at 60k, down just 3.6% from last week.


Tracking for Solo should still be three weeks away, I think. Not that early tracking - or tracking for big movies in general - is all that reliable

 

Tracking has A Wrinkle in Time at a $32-35 million opening weekend. Absolutely dreadful. Meanwhile Black Panther might clip $40 million for it's fourth weekend. Incredible.

 

BP will be number one this weekend. It’s already over the billion marker. Disney is starting to crank them out. Can’t wait for Avenger IW to come out and go over a billion. There dominance is impressive. You had Thor and coco in November, TLJ in December, and Black Panther in February. Just amazing.AWIT doesn’t have to make a killer but I would like the movie to be successful.

 

Wrinkle in Time sounds absolutely horrible and looks absolutely horrible. And just like all movies that look and sound terrible, I will root hard against it. I don't discriminate, either way.

I know this flies in the face of the way the media typically uses the word, but I think it's only fair to point out that Black Panther is not a shining example of "diversity," actually. In fact it's the opposite. The movie is about 95% black people in front of the camera, while the definition of diversity is "the state of being diverse; variety" and "a range of different things." Clearly, the movie is not diverse. But I forgot it was some time ago, 15, 20 years (?), when the social justice warriors redefined the word to mean "not white." Because factually, it ain't diverse. And you know what? I don't care, it's a great movie, I thoroughly enjoyed Black Panther and can't wait to buy the most expensive Steelbook version to add to the collection. Because I love great movies, whoever made them, whoever is in them, I watch movies to be entertained, inspired, and maybe even educated. I don't watch them to pretend I'm participating in some social justice movement or political statement.

Those long range forecast things, like with Solo, won't have a ton of meaning or accuracy anyway. BoxOffice.com's site has been all over the map with some of theirs, and their Rogue One number was well low. I think most of us already can make a reasonable enough projection and then what happens from there honestly depends on Disney's marketing, the quality of the film, and the word of mouth or what have you.