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Amph The 2018 Box Office Blood Ocean

Discussion in 'Community' started by The2ndQuest , Dec 31, 2017.

  1. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Jedi Grand Master star 6

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    Black Panther seems easily set for the biggest President's Day weekend of all time, possibly by a really wide margin. In the midwest we've been stuck under a foot of snow but will finally be thawed out this weekend. Reviews are good RT score inflation notwithstanding. Everyone's ready for something new besides Star Wars and Jumanji. $180 million or more in the U.S. $300 million worldwide?

    Deadpool is the mark to beat with a $152.2 million president's day 4-day opening weekend. I'm in for $180 million 4 day. $200 million will not surprise me.
     
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2018
  2. dp4m

    dp4m Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Nov 8, 2001
    Tracking was hilariously racist for Black Panther, basically putting it at like 90 -120.

    In much the same way that Wonder Woman was hilariously sexist via tracking ($68 million) and it shattered that tracking, I suspect the tracking is very, VERY wrong for Black Panther. That being said, I still only expect it to hit the $150 - 160 million mark, simply because of Marvel movies and their various levels.
     
  3. Lord Vivec

    Lord Vivec Chosen One star 8

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    Apr 17, 2006
    How is tracking any kind of ist.
     
  4. dp4m

    dp4m Chosen One star 10

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    Nov 8, 2001
    Because it basically counts white men as a barometer and are then surprised when it's wrong (e.g. Wonder Woman as a good example). The tracking company basically ignored the fact that BP shattered pre-sale records (for all movies) and said "Nah, white guys..."

    Of course, I could be wrong and they're correct with their tracking estimates for BP! I do not think I am so far though...
     
  5. Lord Vivec

    Lord Vivec Chosen One star 8

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    Apr 17, 2006
    I don't think trackers are trying to be racist towards anyone. Maybe the need to update their models, but that doesn't mean they're being racist.
     
  6. Bilbo Fett

    Bilbo Fett Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Apr 19, 2017
    The tracking for BP has been higher than 120 for a couple of weeks now. Those initial tracking figures were that low because that's what the tea leaves said at the time. They've moved up steadily as the release date approached. They've ranged from 150 to 170 for the past few days.
     
  7. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Jedi Grand Master star 6

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    Looks like $200 million for the four-day might be too conservative.
     
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  8. Diggy

    Diggy Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Feb 27, 2013
    Yes. Mojo says $75MM for the Friday, including Thurs previews, and is predicting $185MM for the three day and $210MM for the four day.
     
  9. I Are The Internets

    I Are The Internets Force Ghost star 8

    Registered:
    Nov 20, 2012
    March looks so crowded, much like last year. A Wrinkle in Time, Red Sparrow (iffy), Pacific Rim 2, Ready Player One, Tomb Raider. Bold prediction, but I think everything will underperform. Another prediction: A Quiet Place will be the Get Out of 2018.

    (am I doing this right, Rylo Ken?)
     
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  10. Guidman

    Guidman Host, PT Book Club and PT Trivia star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 29, 2016
    I wouldn't be surprised at all if the three-day pushes close to $200M for BP. Saw it last night and outside of Star Wars, I can't remember the last time a showing has been sold out and there were multiple ones at the theater I go to. It should have at least three weekends were it should clean house.
     
  11. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Jedi Grand Master star 6

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    Red Sparrow has a really great review already from Variety, but I would agree that Wrinkle in Time, Pacific Rim 2, Ready Player One and Tomb Raider all look like duds.
     
  12. I Are The Internets

    I Are The Internets Force Ghost star 8

    Registered:
    Nov 20, 2012
    Ready Player One has a chance of being vastly superior to the source material.

    Something Spielberg has accomplished before.
     
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  13. Coruscant

    Coruscant Jedi Grand Master star 7

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    Feb 15, 2004
    There are so many directions and possibilities you can explore with virtual reality, it’ll be a wonder if Spielberg doesn’t heavily modify the story to make it more exciting, fresh, and original. I don’t think that’s beyond Steven freakin’ Spielberg.
     
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  14. Guidman

    Guidman Host, PT Book Club and PT Trivia star 4

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    Dec 29, 2016
  15. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Jedi Grand Master star 6

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    I dropped the 14 year old and his three friends off at the theater last night. Line out the door and down the block, already sold out. I bought them tickets for tonight instead. This thing has erupted into serious event film status.
     
    Last edited: Feb 18, 2018
  16. BigAl6ft6

    BigAl6ft6 Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    Nov 12, 2012
    So next weekend 100 million at least, right? I know Marvel movies have pretty steep declines but I can see Black Panther pulling a Jumanji and just ruling the roost for most of March.

    Also Greatest Showman has now outgrossed La La Land domestically (probably wont' catch it worldwide). the legs on Greatest Showman are pretty astounding. 11 million opening weekend!
     
    Last edited: Feb 19, 2018
  17. Violent Violet Menace

    Violent Violet Menace Manager Emeritus star 5 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Aug 11, 2004
  18. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Jedi Grand Master star 6

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    At least we know which aptly named movie Black Panther is going to annihilate in its second weekend.
     
    Last edited: Feb 20, 2018
  19. DarthIntegral

    DarthIntegral VIP star 8 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Jul 13, 2005
    Justice League: Entire Domestic Run: $228 Million
    Black Panther: Four Day Opening: $235 Million

    LOL @ DC

    [​IMG]
     
  20. Diggy

    Diggy Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Feb 27, 2013
    heels1785 likes this.
  21. heels1785

    heels1785 JCC/PT/New Films Manager star 8 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Dec 10, 2003
    it's a much better film!
     
  22. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Jedi Grand Master star 6

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    Someday soon I'll be up late with insomnia and Justice League will be free on cable. Can't wait to find out what all the fuss was about.
     
  23. Sith_Sensei__Prime

    Sith_Sensei__Prime Chosen One star 6

    Registered:
    May 22, 2000
    This pic is not specific to 2018, but overall studio franchises over the years.

    [​IMG]
     
  24. Diggy

    Diggy Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Feb 27, 2013
  25. heels1785

    heels1785 JCC/PT/New Films Manager star 8 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Dec 10, 2003
    avg tolkien film = $980,748,014
    avg potter film = $948,805,967
    avg pirates film = $904,887,952
    avg sw film = $884,533,476
    avg transformers film = $877,027,285
    avg spidey film = $807,237,738
    avg mcu film = $779,524,169
    avg dceu film = $753,595,887
    avg f/f film = $641,861,918
    avg xmen film = $499,663,200
    avg bond film = $270,779,832

    grats marvel, you average just under $100 million a film less than michael bay's three hours of exploding **** fest universe.

    whats next, ssp.