Amph The 2022 Box Office Blood Booster

It did pretty much Shazam business and that is getting a sequel

 

Difference is Shazam had a significantly smaller budget.

 

That’s the price of a Rock.

 

Avatar: The Way of Water is out for a day.

Predictions have it topping out the weekend at $170 million. But it’s looking like that will be less.

What an age we’re in. The movie is out one day and it looks like it’s ability to make $800 million is going to be a long shot.

 

The first film didn’t have a spectacular opening weekend either. Big question is wether the sequel manages to have the same legs.

 

It would seem like almost certainly not. The novelty is less, theater attendance is down, other forms of entertainment/distraction are more prevalent. It's a very hard climb.

 

Movies have veeeeerrrry consistent attendance patterns so once there’s real data I would think they’re not especially difficult to predict within, say, a $100m range unless they’re outliers. Which, as Adam says, the first film was, so theoretically this could buck the trend.

 

Avatar 2 has a projected opening weekend of $134 million.

 

I think it's going to have pretty good legs. Nothing major coming out until, I think, Antman 3 in the middle of February.

 

That’s were The Way of Water will need to buck box office trends - is having amazing holds through January and February.

Top Gun: Maverick shows a movie can still have legs in 2022 that keep a movie in theaters for months making money.

Also major success internationally will help the Avatar sequels get made. So far the international numbers look good.

 

What would are we in that an Antman film is considered notable? Ye gods.

If Avatar fails, I propose we retitle the thread “Bloodless Box Office.”

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/article/ed3983672324

a measured look at the weekend box office without the Schadenfreude spin that I give the data. It will need to make 4.6x its global opening weekend to hit the $2 billion mark. Top Gun 2 did 5.7x its opening weekend so it has already happened once this year for a sequel, and of course the original Avatar and Titanic had even bigger multiples.

The first Avatar dropped only 1.8% in its second weekend. Avatar 2 simply cannot do that well in the U.S. and Europe given that Saturday is Christmas Eve. In China one of the biggest challenges is COVID.

 

I'll likely end up going to see The Way of Water a second time (it'll be the first movie since COVID that I make multiple trips to the theater to see), though it'll have to wait 'til after Christmas for me, since The Whale and Babylon are releasing this week and I want to see those as well.

 

A friend who saw Avatar 2 yesterday described it as the "longest, dullest moviegoing slog I can remember." The dialogue, he says, suffers from "Phantom Menace syndrome" in that Cameron apparently didn't have anyone to tell him it needed significant editing. The other spoilerish thing was:

Spoiler

"There's some tarzan boy running around for the entire length of the movie. I never figured out why he was there. I think the Avatars were keeping him as a pet."

 

How many trips to the theater did you see COVID?

(Haha. Couldn’t resist.) I don’t know how many movies I saw twice since COVID. Maybe just Spider-Man: No Way Home. Double features at the drive-in don’t really count. Sometimes the second movie Id already saw.

In my initial reaction to The Way of Water I said if I describe the plot you’d think I was making it up or the movie is terrible.

But the way it plays out on screen completely worked for me. I’m curious what you think of the movie yourself should you decide to see it in a movie theater.

 

I'm really liking the Rogue One/Avatar 2 cage match. The calendar makes them easy to compare:

 

This pattern you’ve hit on is, and I’m not exaggerating for comedy, literally the most interesting thing I’ve yet seen about Avatar 2: Blue Cat Boogaloo.

 

It will be interesting to see how Rogue One versus Avatar 2 plays out since while Rogue One opened higher and so far had the bigger box office days but Avatar 2 drops have been smaller. The $16 million yesterday is the second best Monday of the calendar year and mind you most schools are not even on winter break yet. Very curious what next Monday can bring since many businesses will be closed due to observing the Christmas holiday along with kids being off school as really that is the true start of winter break.

 

Went to see Puss and Boots with my son. Probably 20 people in the theater. I really liked the movie, it was enjoyable and I was never tempted to look at my watch to see how much longer I had to sit there. Good, fun story. I kept looking at all the empty seats though, and wondered when the last time a theater was full. Was it 2019 or even before that? Movies were dying even before the Pandemic because people are too lazy to leave their houses. It makes me sad, because I'm that weirdo that likes any excuse to get out of my house. It was a 1:45pm movie in a not so popular theater, I'd have a better idea of the popularity of the movie if I went near home. Hopefully it does okay, because like I said it was a good movie.