Discussion in 'Community' started by The2ndQuest
, Dec 31, 2022.
$2 billion for Avatar 2 does indeed look like a lock. Cameron said he needed $2 billion, and he's going to get it.
Estimates for 3 & 4-day weekend highlights:
-$31.1m/$38.5m for A2. At $1.89b worldwide, is now about $20m shy of NWH.
-$17.9/$21.2 for M3GAN, a 40% decline.
-$13.4/$17.3 for Puss in Boots.
-$12.6/$15 for Otto (seen as a very good hold for an adult audience-targeted film with a traditional platform release in terms of momentum and positive word of mouth).
-$10/$11.6 for Plane.
-$3.8/4.5 for House Party reboot (not a good performance but WB says the intention here is to raise its profile ahead of the HBOM debut).
-The Whale has passed $10m, seen as good for a limited release.
-Skinamarink is doing good per-screen numbers despite limited showtimes. It also apparently has nothing to do with The Elephant Show.
How much shy of NWH in the US?
Avatar is clear popular in the US but it’s a phenomenon in other countries around the globe.
BOM hasn't updated yet but Variety says A2 is now at $570 domestic, which would be 13th on the All-Time chart, below The Incredibles 2's $608.6m. NWH sits at #3 with an astounding $814.1m (above A1's $785.2m). Maverick sits below A1 in 5th with $718.7m. A2 needs to do another $100m domestic before it even cracks the Top 8.
Looks increasingly possible that A:WoW will achieve the #4 world box office record. Out of the top 4 all-time box office juggernauts, Cameron would have directed 3 of them, over a 25 year run. Incredible accomplishment.
It will beat out TFA to be the second most successful sequel ever.
@Rylo Ken Cameron later clarified that remark and said it wasn't $2 billion to break even, but it was a big number ehixh it easily meant. Rest assured, both Avatar 4 and 5 are coming and from what he and Landau said about it, for me the fifth one could be the most interesting as part of it would take place on Earth which I have a few theories of what could happen.
It is also helpfully in the running with TFA for "second most retreaded content ever."
I'm not sure it was a clarification, more like he was "encouraged" to walk it back at a time when the outcome was a bit less certain. but it's moot now. $2 billion is happening, maybe $2.1 billion.
$2.5 billion, or I aren't the internets.
Whatever you say Lil IATI.
Global box office is as much a game of exchange rates as it is how much money a movie grossed.
In the someone more measurable race that is the domestic box office - The Way Of Water is still going to need to need to work to make as much as The Last Jedi. I don’t know if it can beat it adjusted for inflation.
Over on the ST forum it’s common knowledge TLJ is a huge flop. Didn’t make money at all.
That global box office might take it to $2.3. It depends what the legs on this look like. I’d this movie performed better in North America I think $2.5 billion could have happened.
Right now Avatar has great hold around the world. Excellent staying power for a film in 2022 / 2023.
He didn't really walk it back- he never gave the $2b number to begin with. He said it would have to be one of the Top 3-4 grossing films of all time to be profitable, and then someone took that ranking literally and used the gross of the 5th ranked film if if that were to happen and ran with it. I doubt Cameron has the gross of the top grossing films of all time (outside of what his own films made) memorized offhand for interviews.
I doubt anyone would have run with the $2b figure to begin with if this had been produced like a traditional, single film. As much as it would be amusing to say that the film cost $666m to make, we know the film cannot have been that expensive on its own- but you have the extended prep, development and production costs for another film and 2 additional sequels, which muddies the waters on how you account for it (it's no even as "simple" as Infinity War/Endgame's single budget and all you need to do is divide by 2 to get a ballpark approximation). So, trying to sell a "this film is unbelievably expensive that it has to make an unguaranteed amount to break even" narrative fits what some people were trying to sell.
I don't think he has their exact number memorized either. But that's just the thing. The defense becomes incoherent.
"I wasn't use $2 billion as a metric. I was using the top 5 films of all time as a metric. . .all of which happen to have made more than $2 billion."
The scale of his boast is not at all reduced by saying he only wanted to make one of the highest grossing films in all of human history. This was an unavoidably ridiculous walk-back to a ridiculous claim. The best thing that happened is that it's a moot point now because he happened to make it to the bar he set. But that doesn't retroactively change his meaning of make it less stupid.
Not necessarily- broad hyperbole to indicate "with what this cost, it'll have to end up towards the top of the all time list" to indicate a general metric of "breaking a billion isn't enough" or something along those lines instead of a specific number isn't really all that unusual. A lot of people would claim a film needs to be highly successful to break even- no one, not even Cameron, is going to say that a film needs to make $2b to break even. And it requires a 3rd party to turn his statement into a specific numerical boast by ignoring the hyperbole.
But, you're right, it's mostly a moot point now. But we are still seeing the "2b" interpretation lingering in the conversation, so still probably best to contextualize it properly.
Never thought we ever be at the point we say "if only made more then $600 million domestically it truly be a crazy hit!" but hear we are and there is truth to that. Avatar 2 is #13th domestically and yet #7th worldwide as while don't get me wrong it's a mega hit in North America as it will be in or around the Top 10, it's a mega uber worldwide as it could very well be 4th all time when it finishes it's run.
The all time worldwide chart is interesting to see. Only Avengers, No Way Home and Force Awakens made 40-45% of its total haul in North America, the rest of the movies made 70% overseas
@BigAl6ft6 And in the case of No Way Home, I think it would done even better internationally had it not been for the Omicron surge as many countries obviously had much strong restrictions in place until the surge ended. I also think it could have effected The Batman bit as well since other DC films like Joker have had more like 30-70% splits. The Batman it was almost 50/50. Star Wars remains mostly a North American and lesser extent Europe hit which is another reason I think Disney and particular Bob Iger is worried about the franchise long term but that is a topic for a different thread.
Weekend Actuals are in, and are basically close to the estimates, except for A2 and Puss in Boots (both of which got a ~$1.5m boost across the 4-day weekend over estimates).
A2 stands at $916.3m over $1b worldwide and $571.7m domestic. Which means that A2 has very likely passed NWH's worldwide total either already on Tues, or will do so today (with only a $5.6m difference remaining as of Monday's totals). It is currently pacing 11.65% ahead of A1.
All-Time Worldwide: The first conflict in The Battle of Ways concludes, as A2 did indeed pass NWH on Tuesday. $2.8m domestic actual plus overseas pull surpasses Spidey!
#6) Avatar: The Way of Water- $1,928,251,314.
#7) Spider-Man: No Way Home- $1,921,847,111.
$120.1m to go to get to the next slot: Avengers: Infinity War.
Spidey still fending off A2 in the second conflict of The Battle of Ways, for now: Spidey still maintains a $240m lead there.
Just as an aside I wonder how much Titanic will make on its re-release
The first 3D rerelease in 2012 (for the 100th anniversary of the actual sinking) made $350.5m worldwide, $57.9m domestic (on a budget of $18m for the conversion and small effects tweaks like the NDGT's corrected night sky star pattern). But that was at the height of 3D sales.
The 2017 rerelease for the 20th anniversary of the film was only for 1 week domestically and made $691.6 thousand. 2020 limited overseas rerelease (in places that had covid mostly under control like New Zealand) during the pandemic made $71t.
It'll do significantly better than the '17 release- it's wider, more hyped, less competition at box office, piggybacking A2's success as a JC film, etc. I'm thinking 20-25 domestic isn't unreasonable, depending on how many weeks it is playing. Opening weekend $12m.
I’ll probably give it a go just cause I never catches any of the other ones