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  1. In Memory of LAJ_FETT: Please share your remembrances and condolences HERE

Amph The 2023 Box Office Blood Barbie

Discussion in 'Community' started by The2ndQuest , Dec 31, 2022.

  1. Ramza

    Ramza Administrator Emeritus star 9 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Jul 13, 2008
    It just seems more like a cheerleading stat to me than a useful metric. I think people have argued in previous threads that a lot of the big numbers come from having strong tails while not necessarily holding onto the #1 slot. Are you arguing James Cameron is a unique exception to this received wisdom because he performs strongly enough out of the gate?
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2023
  2. Glitterstimm

    Glitterstimm Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    Dec 30, 2017
    Um, no, I’m not arguing that. I’m just sharing some box office statistics that I found interesting . . .
     
  3. Ramza

    Ramza Administrator Emeritus star 9 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Jul 13, 2008
    Aww, no one ever wants to make high concept theories about the JCAM index. :(

    :p
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2023
  4. Boba_Fett_2001

    Boba_Fett_2001 Chosen One star 8

    Registered:
    Dec 11, 2000
    I think @Bacon164 does.
     
  5. Bacon164

    Bacon164 Chosen One star 8

    Registered:
    Mar 22, 2005
    I am what I am because of Big Jim.
     
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  6. Glitterstimm

    Glitterstimm Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    Dec 30, 2017
    If I *could* invest in it I would, seems like a safe bet [face_money_eyes]
     
  7. Ramza

    Ramza Administrator Emeritus star 9 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Jul 13, 2008
    Eh, I really just need those safe futures to hedge my massive short of Secret Wars.
     
  8. Glitterstimm

    Glitterstimm Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    Dec 30, 2017
    If I had to guess, I think Secret Wars will be a sub-$2bn movie, because no Robert Downey Jr, Chris Evans, Scarlet Johansson, Chadwick Bozeman, etc. Unless they’ve gotten roped back in? I haven’t followed it closely.

    The formula for Infinity War/Endgame was, 1: biggest stars, 2: familiar roles for those stars, 3: franchise saturation to buildup interest. If you remove one of those elements, the formula doesn’t work, I would think. Wakanda Forever seemed to prove you need the characters and the big star that people like. In any case it will be an interesting health check for the franchise.
     
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  9. Bacon164

    Bacon164 Chosen One star 8

    Registered:
    Mar 22, 2005
    I think you just need a big boat and some romance
     
  10. Jedi_Sith_Smuggler_Droid

    Jedi_Sith_Smuggler_Droid Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    Mar 13, 2014
    The MCU is rebuilding again. The next Avengers movie will be more the original movie with all the new phase 3 and phase 4 heroes thrown together,

    The team up films were dealt a blow with Cadwick Boseman’s Black Panther gone. In North America at least he was breakout character of phase 3. We still have Thor and probably some part of the Guardians of the Galaxy left and Spider-Man.

    Will be interesting to see Shang-Chi, She-Hulk, Ghost Knight, Kate Bishop, Ms.Marvel and whatever escapes TVA in an Avengers movie,

    Also glad phase 4 skipped the team up movie. The phase doesn’t end with a definite chapter conclusion like the other phase which feels fitting to me after Endgame,
     
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  11. Bacon164

    Bacon164 Chosen One star 8

    Registered:
    Mar 22, 2005
    [face_sick][face_sick][face_sick][face_sick][face_sick][face_sick] i dream of the end times [face_sick][face_sick][face_sick][face_sick][face_sick][face_sick]
     
  12. Glitterstimm

    Glitterstimm Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    Dec 30, 2017
    @Jedi_Sith_Smuggler_Droid as you say, they’re rebuilding, the big question is, can they do it in time? I am skeptical, but who knows. Tom Holland/Spider-Man has put up impressive numbers, he might be enough. I don’t watch Marvel stuff anymore, so idk what’s working and what’s not
     
  13. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Force Ghost star 7

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    Dec 19, 2015
    would be the saddest thing ever.
     
  14. Jabba-wocky

    Jabba-wocky Chosen One star 10

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    May 4, 2003
    ALL THESE LOW RENT TEN HOUR MADE FOR TELEVISION MOVIES COMBINE LIKE VOLTRON INTO ONE MEDIOCRE TWO HOUR MOVIE
     
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  15. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Jan 27, 2000
    It also looks like we've crossed an interesting threshold. Since I've been tracking A1 vs A2 for the first 50 days, sometime on Sunday or Monday A2 reached a point where it is guaranteed it will not fall behind A1 within the first 50 days of release. A2 would have to average less than a million for every day until 2 Fridays from now to fall behind A1- which will clearly not be happening even in a worst-case scenario.

    And, yeah, it seems like I'll have to extend this spreadsheet out for a couple more weeks to find the exact point that it finally does fall behind A1. As of Tuesday (the 40th day of release), A2 still has a $43.6m lead. but every day since Day 22 has had a decline in % over the same day in A1's run. In fact, it looks like A2's overall gross lead % has declined by an average of around 5% every week since that point.
     
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2023
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  16. solojones

    solojones Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Sep 27, 2000

    And yet in the Shelf of Shame I used Avatar 2 as my pick and of 19 People only like 3 have seen it. Leading me to wonder...

    WHO IS SEEING THIS MOVIE?!

    Besides @I Are The Internets, he doesn't count.
     
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2023
  17. dp4m

    dp4m Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Nov 8, 2001
    [​IMG]
     
  18. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    A2's domestic total vaults past Avengers into the all time top 10 not this coming weekend but the following. After that a very slow slog up the list toward Infinity war. Passing the combined release totals of Titanic both domestically and globally would be an amazing career achievement.
     
  19. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Jan 27, 2000
    One aspect of that which may have been overlooked: As of Tuesday, A2's domestic total edged past $600m to a hair under $602m.

    Titanic's original release scored $600.8m. So, A2 has passed Titanic domestically in that regard. Almost the entirety of what remains to pass in the combined total is from the 2012 3D release and whatever the new 4K 3D rerelease does next month.
     
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2023
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  20. Jedi_Sith_Smuggler_Droid

    Jedi_Sith_Smuggler_Droid Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    Mar 13, 2014
    Most of Titanic’s total is in 1997/1998 money. Avatar 2 passing it is like a race car passing a horse.

    No movie since Titanic has out grossed Titanic domestically adjusted for inflation. The Force Awakens came closest. The Way of Water isn’t going to make it.
     
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  21. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    right, adjusted for inflation Ava2r won't break the top 20 domestically. Star Wars 77, Gone With the Wind, ET and Titanic are way up there in terms of estimated number of tickets sold. I think it's fair though to leave that caveat out. It's implied, understood and mostly ignored.
     
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2023
  22. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Jan 27, 2000
    Yeah, the release conditions for the top 10-15 on the adjusted chart were so radically different that it becomes a (mostly) pointless comparison. It’s obviously noteworthy that Titanic cracked the top 10 there and that TFA came close to it, but since you kinda have to ignore almost all the other films in that range on that chart you essentially end up with a result that isn’t too dissimilar to the unadjusted charts.
     
  23. Jedi Knight Fett

    Jedi Knight Fett Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Feb 18, 2014
    Me. I have seen it twice. And the second time I convinced 4 people to come with me. That’s how avatar made money. It was people like me who were mildly lintrested convincing enough people to go see the film with them. The second time I went cause the movie theater is the only place I can get the slushy flavor I like lol.
     
  24. solojones

    solojones Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Sep 27, 2000

    I mean I saw the first film in theatres in 3D Imax and all that jazz.

    That's specially why I wasn't interested in the second one until it's streaming somewhere for free.

    The ride and land are great. They embrace the notion of "this is beautiful production design and a story you want to experience for 4 minutes".
     
  25. Jedi_Sith_Smuggler_Droid

    Jedi_Sith_Smuggler_Droid Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    Mar 13, 2014
    Box Office Mojo isn’t even updating their adjusted for inflation list . Spider-Man: No Way Home isn’t on the list no Top Gun Maverick.


    The Numbers all time adjusted list starts in 1977. It doesn’t even try to pretend they can accurately put movies released before that into a modern comparison.
     
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