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  1. In Memory of LAJ_FETT: Please share your remembrances and condolences HERE

Amph The 2024 Box Office Blood Replenishment

Discussion in 'Community' started by The2ndQuest , Dec 31, 2023.

  1. BigAl6ft6

    BigAl6ft6 Chosen One star 8

    Registered:
    Nov 12, 2012
    I wonder if as Universal as a theatrical distributor for Argyle, will it follow Universal's gameplan of if it opens under 50 million it'll be on digital ondemand in 2 and a half weeks. KotFM made a 60 day to digital and then another month and a half to AppleTV. I'm assuming the exclusive theatrical window from the two directors are quite different (Unless Matthew Vaughn thinks he needs 2 months exclusive)

    (Saw Argyle, I dug it! I am probably the only person who didn't see the trailer or ads a bunch as there were multiple surprises in the movie like the CGI cat drop I didn't know was coming, I think I kept catching the end of the trailer as I usually only show up for the last 1 or 2 trailers and never really arrive early enough for all of them and the Argyle trailer was usually bundled at the start, the end trailers are usually Marvel or anything else big budget)
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2024
  2. Darth Guy

    Darth Guy Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Aug 16, 2002
    I got to see KOTFM in IMAX and I'm ok with Tim Apple wasting as much money as possible to make things like that happen.
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2024
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  3. Jedimarine

    Jedimarine Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Feb 13, 2001
    This almost sounds like Apple is some sort of "Patron of the Arts".

    I don't think their intent is that benevolent, or that permenant.

    For now, they are hoping to fill a perceived gap in the market...supporting the critically acclaimed creators and the high-art segment.

    But, much like we have seen from the cable generation...locking in on a segment of the market only gets you so far.

    They will diversify their productions to spread their nets broader and broader in the hopes of gaining more market share.

    It is inevitable.

    And if the art-house productions don't keep pace with other offerings, they may end up needing to find a new source of patronage.

    Apple did not create a streaming service to defend good cinema from Netflix. They created a streaming service to keep people spending in the Apple economic sphere.
     
  4. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    Daisy Ridley swims the English Channel for Disney+ gets a theatrical release date - May 31.
     
  5. gezvader28

    gezvader28 Chosen One star 6

    Registered:
    Mar 22, 2003
    Until KK cancels it.
     
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  6. Rogue1-and-a-half

    Rogue1-and-a-half Manager Emeritus who is writing his masterpiece star 9 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Nov 2, 2000
    Damn, I wish that was the title of the movie.
     
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  7. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Jan 27, 2000
    Be a great series.

    Daisy Ridley Swims the (Nile River)
    Daisy Ridley Swims the (Arctic Ocean)
    Daisy Ridley Swims the (Red Sea)

    Anyways, while I don't think I saw Argylle trailer too much (it was nowhere near as bad as, say, Aquaman 2), IMAX theaters do tend to run a lot of the same trailers since they're focused on films getting IMAX releases. KOTPOTA is presently getting a lot of screentime at the films I've been seeing (even on non-IMAX screens). And, admittedly, I thought Argylle's trailer was actually pretty good and depicted the fun that the film itself didn't really have as a whole (though both did have Vaughn's flashy, cartoony action and style), even though it tried. It's sort of the worst habits Vaughn had in First Class and the Kingsmen movies, doubled down on and extended, without being as enjoyable as they were.

    Knight & Day did it better, basically.
     
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2024
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  8. ZanderSolo

    ZanderSolo Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    May 18, 2007
    In regards to the sequels from the last page-

    Still waiting on Spaceballs 2: The search for more money.

    Mel Brooks generally doesnt make bad movies.
     
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2024
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  9. Ramza

    Ramza Administrator Emeritus star 9 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Jul 13, 2008
    Although when he does miss holy **** is it a miss.
     
  10. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    The pre-Dune part 2 box office landscape is nearly but not quite as bleak as it was expected to be. The top movies of 2024 so far:

    The Beekeeper, looking at more than 4x its budget worldwide

    Mean Girls, getting close to 3x its budget, ready to turn a real profit in the on demand market.

    Night Swim, which scraped up nearly 3x its budget and is now in what is likely a successful on demand run. But it didn't make the kind of crazy profit that the studios who make low budget horror often get.

    Argylle, which may not reach half its budget at the box office, potentially the biggest flop of 2024 in terms of return on budget, with the understanding that Apple doesn't give a ****.

    The 2023 holdover Anyone But You, passing 6x its budget worldwide after its foreign box office picked up. It's looking to have a bit of a Valentine's Day/president's weekend bump before it finally leaves theaters after one of the most leggy runs we've seen in a while.

    coming up:

    Lisa Frankenstein, apparently Kathryn Newton's follow up horror comedy to Freaky. The trailer is an expertly crafted exercise in trying to disincentivize me from ever seeing it, but it cost about $14 million to make so whatever.

    Bob Marley: One Love - The next musician biopic in a dependable stream of recent musician biopics, some pretty good, some not good at all. A trailer that I saw as often as the Argylle trailer, in front of literally every movie I've seen in the past 3 months. But it's a decent trailer, and it's hard to argue with the music.

    Madam Web: it's exactly the kind of movie I would never go see in a universe where it opens in competition with a Bob Marley biopic. I don't know how other people feel about it. The trailer was intriguing. I assume there is a small but vocal built in audience of people who might well care.
     
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2024
  11. Darth Guy

    Darth Guy Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Aug 16, 2002
    Impossible. The Argylle Trailer is All. I saw the trailer in my dreams like in that one episode of Futurama.
     
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  12. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Jan 27, 2000
    I'm really looking forward to Lisa Frankenstein. A horror comedy with a dash of Burton-esque style (though not fully aping it) looks fun. And Quantumania has made me really interested in seeing Kathryn Newton in other projects (she's also showing up in the Abigail trailer (the vampire ballerina movie) that has been playing in front of a lot of non-IMAX films the past couple weeks, so she may have a couple successful horror films under her belt this year).

    One Love will be interesting to see how it shapes up. The two trailers have been playing in front of a lot of movies (with the second trailer on the bigger screens and the "next year" first trailer playing on secondary screens), but it hasn't felt worn down by that (unlike Aquaman, or even Argylle), which bodes well for the film itself. And even though it has a couple touchstone music biopic moments in it, they're not as blatant as other recent ones (Bohemian Rhapsody, Rocketman, etc) and the film itself comes across more like a historical drama rather than a music biopic (and a history that most people stateside probably aren't all that familiar with, either). Which also bodes well for its potential to perform outside of that mold.

    I don't expect Madam Web to be good- but bringing in Ezekiel and pairing it with a Groundhog Day/Source Code/Edge of Tomorrow premise means it could have some interesting elements even if it gets stuck in Sony's trappings.

    Seeing that trailer so often in theaters the past couple weeks, it just strikes me that Dakota Johnson may be a miscasting for this type of film- and I don't mean in terms of her acting abilities or the quality of the film. Instead I'm speaking more to the vocal narration structure that I'm assuming is in the film (since Spider-Man films do that too)- but is also the core framing of the trailer. She may fit the role in the actual film, but her quiet, weary line deliveries just don't have the gravitas, intrigue or hook needed to support a film like this in trailer form at the very least. It doesn't grab us or build up any hype.

    Putting aside the sloppily-spliced-together "spiders/amazon" line, I really wonder how much better that trailer would come across if it were narrated by a different actress- or even a good, old-fashioned, third person Trailer Voice Narrator (since the film is styled after films from, and set in, 2003, it would actually fit the film's look & tone). Like, I don't think it would suddenly make it a classic trailer, but I think the apathy towards it would have at least been elevated to mild curiosity.
     
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2024
  13. dp4m

    dp4m Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Nov 8, 2001
    I mean, it's also Zelda Williams' (Robin Williams' daughter) feature-film directing debut on a script by Diablo Cody, so there might be something there...
     
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  14. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    I admire your optimism!

    There are a lot of similar looking movies out there. It doesn't really look new or fresh, is it a kind of Warm Bodies/Life After Beth thing? but I hope for both your sakes I'm completely wrong.
     
  15. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Jan 27, 2000
    No pun intended, LF seems like its humor will be more biting than Warm Bodies.

    ...Ok, maybe a little intended.
     
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2024
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  16. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    If it can make anything close to $40 million at the box office that would mean a win. Kathryn Newton has a bit of a following now with Ant Man and Freaky and Some Amazon Prime Original sci fi/fantasy/romantic dramedy based on a young adult novel. She's a legit go to genre girl now.
     
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2024
  17. Ramza

    Ramza Administrator Emeritus star 9 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Jul 13, 2008
    Are we absolutely sure Lisa Frankenstein isn’t a Treehouse of Horror segment from like season 25 or whatever and it’s just that none of us were watching?
     
  18. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    that would be ideal.
     
  19. BigAl6ft6

    BigAl6ft6 Chosen One star 8

    Registered:
    Nov 12, 2012
    Deadline box office guy's write up on Argylle (which didn't cost 200 million, Apple spent 200 to acquire it FYI) is kinda a meltdown in real time writing that Apple can't just keep doing this, dammit!

    We certainly don’t want Apple to abandon theatrical. However, how long can this reign of $150M-$200M under-grossing movies continue for the streamer? That’s the question. Will Apple ultimately belt-tighten after this string of uber expensive movies? Who makes an R-rated $200M movie? Because at the end of the day, every corporation wants to profit.
    ...
    The defense has been that these movies, i.e. Argylle, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Napoleon are brand plays for the service, trinkets to drive global subs to Apple TV+. One film finance source told me that despite these movies being textbook bombs, to Apple, they’re advertising costs. Witness the ten Oscar nominations and 200 accolades (per Apple boss Tim Cook) for Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon, and the anecdotal claim that the movie is “the most popular movie across streaming platforms” despite the fact that it hasn’t appeared in the Nielsen streaming rankings yet.
    ..
    Streamers such as Apple and Amazon who are playing in the theatrical space realize they need it to eventize their movies, and reportedly, more than profit, are looking at other diagnostics as benchmarks of achievement, i.e. subscriber churn on the streaming site, and how a movie translates into sales on the site (which is specific to Amazon). I was told that Amazon couldn’t determine the success of Easter weekend 2023 release Air until months after its $93.2M global box office. Talk about a lot of money spent on top of mounds of money: The Artists Equity/Skydance Sports/Mandalay title cost around $90M to make, before Amazon spent $120M to acquire it.
    ..
    But to say that these big tech congloms like Apple and Amazon ($1.78 trillion) are Teflon to losses and can sustain exorbitant amounts of spending is just a flat-out lie. Hello, Amazon just laid off hundreds in its Prime Video and MGM divisions. Remember the Jason Ropell and Ted Hope administration in Amazon movies division? Their mandate was to make taste-making, awards-worthy fare, just like Apple’s (though at significantly smaller budgets), and they executed that m.o. with such 2x Oscar winners like Manchester by the Sea.

    Then there was the $80M period movie The Aeronauts (some say that’s $40M production cost+marketing), starring Felicity Jones and Eddie Redmayne, which was made and intended for Imax, but got jettisoned to a truncated short theatrical window release and pivot to Prime Video. At the end of the day, it was decided that that the administration’s output wasn’t profitable or sticky enough for the brand. The point is: Don’t tell me tech companies don’t look at bottom lines.
    ...
    Perhaps, much like Netflix’s penchant for $200M event films which have zero downstream ancillaries, motion picture studios are just envious of Apple. Maybe this $200M conveyor belt for niche demo movies never stops.

    As one industry financial analyst told me recently: “Apple market cap is $2.87 trillion. If the stock moves 0.007% or about 1.3 cents, that covers a $200M production.”

    (there's also a Variety piece that can Apple keep doing this? Apparently they can!)
     
  20. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Jan 27, 2000
    That writer also fails to account for other factors leading to the Prime/MGM lay-offs, ie: mergers. A lot of positions always get eliminated after mergers because now you have 2 people for a lot of roles. Not to mention laying off "only" hundreds is fairly minimal compared to the job losses the tech and gaming sectors have been hit with (especially those following mergers). So, it's not like there isn't a lot of context there that it wasn't linked to financial concerns or product performance.

    But, yeah, they're marketing expenses for them. This shouldn't be surprising for what is primarily a tech company. Recall that AT&T was more than willing to burn revenue (and the resulting lawsuits) on the day-and-date pandemic film releases for then-HBO Max since they functioned as marketing and subscriber incentives following the service's disastrous launch.
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2024
  21. Ramza

    Ramza Administrator Emeritus star 9 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Jul 13, 2008
    The point is just muddled - “Amazon is worried about the expenses here, or else they wouldn’t lay off people in Prime Video.” The phrasing wants us to think about how indicative of concern it would be if, like, Disney did that, but, like… Amazon is not synonymous with Prime Video the way Disney is synonymous with their film and TV offerings. Amazon has some chunk of budget laid out for Prime Video and expects something based on that chunk of budget. If they really wanted to they could kill the entire thing and not bat an eye. It’s another level entirely.
     
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  22. nilzo antonio

    nilzo antonio Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 31, 2015
    AS for Apple, i can get the "idea" of using all these movies to try legitimize the streaming service and bring new users/subscribers.
    But once those movies movies flop so hard at the Box Office IHMO they become exact as the opposite Apple thought when they bought all those projects.
     
  23. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Jan 27, 2000
    I don't think that's the case though. Their box office performance isn't really affecting their reputation in a way that detracts from their streaming interest. It's mostly just people wanting to wait to stream them, or a "oh and we can watch that too"-type situation with the service. And Killers and Napoleon getting award noms certainly doesn't hurt countering any perception that might be there.

    If anything, they can look at the box office runs as a means of getting at least some revenue directly back for each project (whether or not one considers it a marketing cost), reducing the number of subscribers they need to incentivize in order to be a success.

    But it's also a case by case basis too, I think. Argylle's terrible reviews and marketing will hurt its streaming value more than its poor box office, for instance. But then, that's not really any different of an effect as any other underperforming theatrical-to-home-video release.
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2024
  24. Jedimarine

    Jedimarine Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Feb 13, 2001
  25. dp4m

    dp4m Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Nov 8, 2001
    No, they're pulling a Blue Beetle. This was a Disney+ series that has been retooled into a movie to be released in theaters instead of streaming.
     
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