Amph The 2025 Box Office Blood Galaxy

Even with a "smaller" population, I don't see that working unless your area doesn't regularly have the same event film on multiple screens. My first theater (now a Dine-In) was 7, and that was terribly limited in selection even before it became common practice elsewhere to have event films on 3+ screens. I recall they even had to rig up some uncommon technique for ANH:SE so that they could run two auditoriums (their two biggest) off of one print of the movie when it became a surprise break-out opening night (and that film came out in January, mind you).

My second theater opened back for TPM and has 12 screens. That actually manages a pretty good balance of titles even though it often has to juggle showtimes. Though attendance can swing wildly given that there are so many options in the area. Still, that gives them room to run a couple films on at least 2-3 screens and still have room for other "top 10 not just top 5" films.

My current main theater has 18, but that includes an IMAX and a Dolby Cinema screen too. So more like 16 for comparison. That allows them to do things like Ghiblifest, Fathom Events, Oscar marathons, etc on top of "top 10 not just top 5" releases. But that one is serving a major highway, in a large, college-focused city. But it draws the crowds and families depending on your showtime.

And all of those are doing that despite smaller towns having another 2-3 theater options within the same driving distance. And while central NJ is an active place in a high population state, it's not exactly anything crazy like the major theater cities in NYC, Orlando, Chiacgo, or LA, etc. More rural or sparsely suburban areas would be a different situation- but they're also probably not holding down multi-screen blockbusters as a common practice to begin with and/or have had to drive 45+ min to get to a theater already.

I mean, just as an example, let's look at May 2025: For Memorial Day weekend, you're going to have both Thunderbolts and MI8 in theaters as the heavy hitters for the mainstream and adult audiences (with the former in its 4th week, and the latter opening in its 1st), in addition to Lilo & Stitch likely dominating the family and kid demos for its 1st week. Final Destination will be in its 2nd week for horror fans.

Thunderbolts will likely still be holding down 1-2 screens in most places. It'll have most of its run already but taking on whatever legs it can from the holiday weekend. MI8 will be holding down at least 3-4 (especially if a location has Dolby, IMAX or other PLF screens). Stitch will also have at least 3-4. FD will get 1 screen. That's already 8 screens on the low-end. Even if you shave another one off the Lilo and MI8 counts, that's 6 screens. But you want room for counterprogramming (a theater needs to be showing more than just 4 films).

That's where the mid/late April films (and/or any smaller May releases) fill in the smaller auditoriums and provide selection: The Accountant 2, Pride & Prejudice, and Sinners could all easily still take a screen (even if they're sharing one). And with the lack of kids films outside of Stitch, its conceivable that even Minecraft could still be playing for a showtime or two (but understandably not everywhere). And that's not yet factoring in end-of-May releases like Karate Kid Legends likely taking 1-2 screens the following week.

Yeah, smaller locations make due- but usually because the chain is anchoring it with another location (ie: "Yes, we only have these 6 here for convenience, but we have these and 8 more 30 min away").

 

We'll see. Last May fell apart because it had no kick-off event film to anchor the season with- Fall Guy was never going to be a suitable replacement draw for a Marvel film. With triple AAA heavy hitters, this May will be very different in terms of line-up. If they don't perform, then your theory about May may pan out.

 

The LA fires were a far more direct impact upon the city/region (and, by extension, its ticket sales), not just the typical annual wildfire that hit single areas. They really did strike down a core box office source in a way that we haven't seen before (at least not since the earthquake in the 90's). People are still displaced (and have so many more important financial concerns now that going to the movies isn't going to be on the docket) and so many homes/businesses won't be rebuilt for some time. Not to mention the direct loss of several theaters (to say nothing of those that suffered damage) and neighborhoods supporting numerous others.

While we'll no doubt see some bounce-back, this is not something comparable to annual weather disasters. Even when NYC was hit with the flooding a few years back, the impact was only a few days to a few weeks before the affected areas were back up and running. This will take months to years to recover from (as far as box office is concerned- obviously the actual towns will take much longer).

 

Well, the fires are out now. So unless you're being politically metaphorical (or even if you are!), that actually actually might be a fine escape for folks .

 

From all signs, Disney just wants to get this film in the rear view and focus on Lilo & Stich.

 

Earlier projections had it at a $65m opening, but that seemed low for the target audience it's going for. $100m seems optimistic, though. I do think it'll have legs though- the only kids competition it has until Lilo & Stitch come out is Minecraft. And it remains to be seen if Minecraft will eat into the same demo, be a Mario-like hit, or a front-loaded, Freddy-like fizzle. Easter being late this year also throws comparisons into whack as well. Though I could see it helping this film get a small, late-run boost on weekend 6 before Marvel clears the board.

 

It surely must still have an impact upon kids. It may be superseded by the other classic Disney princess movies or even Pinocchio, so it's not top tier (one reason why it's taken them a decade to get to it on the live action remake docket) but the "Hi ho! Hi Ho!" song, the modern mine cart coaster attraction, etc still provide it exposure over the decades. Plus, Gremlins love it.

 

Truthfully, if Avatar wasn't on the calendar, this would probably be the first year in a long, long time there isn't a $1B+ Hollywood studio film.