Senate The Canadian Politics Thread

And Ford flip flopped immediately, I'm pretty sure Ford is ticked Trump will never know his name

 

Car industry is going to be demolished

 

Today's Léger and Nanos polls (both are typically considered the most reliable pollsters) have the Liberals and Conservatives in a statistical tie. Nanos has it at 36% Cons. / 35% Libs. Léger has them both at 37%. That is stunning, because a few days before Trudeau resigned Nanos had it at 45% Cons. / 23% Libs., and about a week after his resignation Léger was within the margin of error of those results at 47% Cons. / 21% Libs. Over the course of about two months, both have demonstrated a gradual, steady and sustained decrease in Conservative support, and a corresponding increase in Liberal support (with support also bleeding out from the NDP and Bloc towards the Liberals).

To put it really simply, today's numbers would result in either a strong Liberal minority, or a tight majority, based on Liberal voter efficiency. I have a feeling that, between the Liberals seeming keen on having an election ASAP, and the Conservatives not having called for a "carbon tax election" in several weeks, their internal polling is saying much the same thing.

I'm not even going to bother sharing Ekos' preliminary data from the poll they'll release this week, because as of now it's genuinely too absurd to believe... but they were the first pollsters to catch wind of the shift back towards the Liberals, and they were also the first to detect the Orange Wave that happened back in 2011. For some reason, their model seems to be good at doing that sort of thing even if others are better at capturing the final numbers closer to election day. So their crazy (and I mean ridiculous) early numbers could be an outlier that won't be replicated, it could be bad data, or it could be the detection of yet another shift that the other pollsters will eventually find.

 

I’ve heard Carney wants to have the election relatively soon, but I’d wait a couple months just to have the conservatives shoot themselves in the foot more

 

I’d rather he strike while the iron is hot, because that also leaves time for the Conservatives to figure out counter-messaging. I also want this settled before we host the G7 over the summer, since that has the potential to be a strong affirmation of our leadership on the world stage, but that’ll come across more authentically with a strong mandate.

 

Why is it that when Trump insults Canada, Canadians tell him to go **** himself. But when Trump insults Democrats, Democrats just bend over?

 

Because Canadians have more backbone

 

for childish and insecure people, they may even take that literally

Canada is bigger than the USA, land wise, Canada literally has more backbone and Trump can't stand it lol

 

It's a shame Australia is following the lead of the Democrats, instead of Canada.

Out of the possible outcomes in Canada's upcoming elections, would Poilievre be more similar to Albanese than Trudeau (and apparently Carney) on this issue?

I just posted this in US Politics, will put it as a quote here:

 

Trump obsession with Canada and Greenland makes it seems he wants to expand US terrority for the first time in 100 years

 

A Canadian woman has been detained by ICE for over a week after trying to enter the United States on a work visa. Something similar is currently going on with a British tourist and a German tourist; oddly enough, all women in each case.

https://www.10news.com/news/local-n...tained-by-ice-after-entering-san-diego-border

Don't forget Gaza and the Panama Canal. He even mentioned expanding US territory in his inauguration speech. It's very clear he wants this for the bragging rights and basically no other reason; even the resources I think are more of a secondary rationale than his own personal motive. He has an urge to stand out; apparently he went on some tirade that King Charles inviting Zelenskyy and Trudeau to his own home made Trump feel less "special" for the state visit invitation. Just pathetic.

 

I mean, this is from his inaugural address;

"The United States will once again consider itself a growing nation — one that increases our wealth, expands our territory, builds our cities, raises our expectations, and carries our flag into new and beautiful horizons."

He sees Russia getting Crimea and more amd growing and wants to do the same.

 

Also happened to another German (somewhat), Lucas Sielaff.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-reportedly-ending-returned-from-us-detention

 

I just cancelled my business trip to the US. Because of those news.

 

Good. Nobody should be travelling there unless it's absolutely essential.

 

There’s a specific reason for this: we’re one of the few countries to have a trade deficit with the United States and we’re still seeking an exemption upon that basis. That means it’s a strategic move both avoid harming ourselves and to show good will towards the Americans to try and get the exceptions we think there’s a good case for.

The difference between us and Canada is that the tariffs only target steel and aluminium, and we aren’t being threatened with annexation. People are less likely to become nationalistic in response, and instead just feel the economic impacts (and with an election coming up, the ALP wants to keep the economy afloat for as long as it can).

 

would you classify a wedding as essential? The reason I ask is my sister is having her wedding in the states (and it’s far to late to change that fact)

if I saw my family more often than I did I would agree,

especially stuff like snow birds going to Florida.

basically anything outside of a wedding, birth, a business trip you can’t cancel and a funeral you probably shouldn’t be going to America.

international visitors to America spent over 200 billion dollars in 2023 hopefully that’s halved in 2025

as for me I’ll be up in Canada for a week in April and as long as it isn’t prohibitedly expensive I will buy Canadian goods or European goods over American ones

 

I think it's kind of up to everyone to determine what is and isn't essential. Obviously a Disney trip or flying down for a weekend in Nashville doesn't fit the bill. And it's going to be a different case for dual citizens travelling on US passports, obviously, but it's really up to your individual determination.

That said, I'm about to intentionally make things more difficult for myself in that regard. My wife is applying for her Canadian citizenship this year, and once she takes the oath I'm renouncing my American citizenship. The passport isn't worth the stain, it's an expensive burden to file cross-border taxes with the IRS every year, and I have no desire to be anything but Canadian.

 

And now begins the Carney era.

How the **** did we get here? Some unelected banker is now our only hope in in what might actually be the most important election of my life.

 

I will say this the similarities between JT and Joe Biden scare the **** out of me.

if after everything the parliament still goes conservative Canada will be a laughing stock not nearly as much as America but one all the same

 

I understand the range of opinions about Carney on the left (the right's opinions on him are idiotic and couched in nonsense), but I am personally enthusiastic about him as Prime Minister, and really hope that his tenure lasts longer than a few weeks. As centre-left scum with a strong preference for Keynesian economics and technocrats, I genuinely think somebody with his expertise, both in the private sector and as the head of two central banks, internationally held respect and demeanour is exactly what the country needs in this precise moment. But I also know it likely won't be what we need in 4-8 years, at which point it'll be time to kick the ******* out.

My hope is that, if the Liberals win, it pushes the Conservatives to realize that tacking to the alt-right is not a winning strategy unless the incumbent is genuinely detested (I'm also hoping by that point the global shine on the alt-right has been tarnished for younger voters), and for the NDP to realize that they have no shot at winning if their party identity is the LPC's all-bark, no-bite lapdogs. We need a healthy range of coherent, well-presented, reality-grounded perspectives in a democracy, and the best answer to "how did we get here?" is that we don't currently have that. The end result is a push to the guy who seems most baseline competent, with the hopes that he just gets on with it.

 

Honestly to me it doesn’t matter if I am enthusiastic or not. I was voting liberal either way as NDP always comes in third in my riding and there is no way in hell I would vote for the conservatives.

I know I harp on it a lot about having anything other than first past the post voting, but it’s true. If we had ranked choice I would probably go NDP, Liberal and Green. In that order.

Here’s hoping the liberals actually get enough seats to make it happen this time.

by the way anyone know if phone banking is a thing in Canada? Or any other online volunteer opportunities.

All I am doing right now is making sure any Canadian who is living stateside will be able to vote who can (which is pretty much anyone with Canadian citizenship who has lived on Canada so IE no one who was born to a Canadian parent and hasn’t lived in Canada)

also specifically only targeting people who will vote NDP or liberal

 

NDP or liberal for me unless I see another Communist Party candidate

 

I'm not going to tell you not to vote Commie unless it interferes with ABC voting

And yeah, @Jedi Knight Fett phone banking is definitely a thing, although I don't know if you'd need to be within the country to do it.

 

EDIT: Not the stupid thread.