PT "The Chancellor has requested... that I lead the campaign". Reasoning?

This is true. Look at TPM. Palpatine seems genuinely shocked when Queen Amidala reveals her plan to go back to Naboo, and practically begs here to stay there where it's safe. It didn't matter anyway because he still got elected Chancellor, but clearly he had a specific plan in mind that got changed if not downright ruined once Padme decided to take off.

 

That's not what I was trying to say. I think he was predestined to beat Sidious though. In the Star Wars universe, I'm not sure to what extent the Force uses predestination and choice. Like, is it all predestined? Or only the finer points? I'm not sure.

 

Yes, I've always felt that was a moment where Palpatine was truly taken aback. The script describes the scene a bit differently, emphasizing that Palpatine has "a self-satisfied smile on his face" as Amidala and her retinue leave, but I think Ian McDiarmid chose to play it the way you describe. Usually Palpatine has this air of exaggerated sincerity about him that clues you into the fact that he's being deceptive, but when he blurts out, "Go back?" in response to Amidala's statement of intent, it sounds uncharacteristically genuine. Like he wasn't expecting it.

 

He wasn't shocked. He's a Sith Lord. He can sense her thoughts. That's why he starts smiling when she leaves. He already knew that she had decided to leave, before announcing it. He was pretending to be a mere senator.

 

That's what the script says. It isn't how McDiarmid plays it:



I'd hardly call that "a self-satisfied smile." Either Lucas was asleep in the director's chair, or he and McDiarmid discussed it and played the scene differently.

It also fits better with what Sidious says later:

 

I kind of fell like...not that Palpatine's plans were falling apart or something, cause the end goal still ended up happening - A Sith Lord in control of the Republic. But I feel like in a way a lot of his plans or ideas got screwed up in TPM. It seems his original plot was really dependent on her signing that treaty. I contend that he had great power,but that the Dark Side had not eclipsed the Light just yet, and he was limited in some ways:

1) The Jedi negotiators on the Trade Federation Ship - he seems downright angry they are there, and considering it was a secret mission from the Chancellor, Sidious seems to have not known. He's annoyed the Neimodians contact him in the first place, calls the Jedi coming an unfortunate turn of events that makes them have to accelerate their plans, and snaps that the Chancellor should never have brought them into this, kill them immediately! He seems quite perturbed that they are there...shouldn't he have sensed their presence? Obi-Wan can sense Sidious' behind the whole affair, even if he doesn't know exactly who it is he senses.

2) "Queen Amidala is young and naive. You will find that controlling her will not be difficult." His first time underestimating her.

3) "Queen Amidala,has she signed the treaty?!" .. He's seems very anxious about this...When Nute tells him they escaped Naboo : "Ahhhhh...I want that treaty signed!" Again, whatever plot he has brewing is dependent upon this.

4) Once they get to Coruscant, he -a bit too hopefully- tries to convince Amidala to call for the vote of no confidence in Valorum. When she rebuffs him, he tries plan B saying it will then have to go through the courts. He knows she will not accept this, but does seem a bit surprised when she does indeed call for the vote.

5) The whole scene in his quarters, where Amidala says she's going back takes him off guard. He's convinced that the invasion will give him a strong sympathy vote and make him Chancellor. He seems content, that his plan is done. Then Amidala says she's going back,and he seems genuinely shocked, and even appeals to her to stay there were it's safe, and thatt hey will force her to sign the treaty if she goes back - the very one he initially wanted the Neimodian's to force her to sign, he now seems to not want her to sign,as if that will maybe somehow screw up his new plans. And when she leaves, it is certainly not a self-satisfied smirk on his face, but rather a look of resigned concern or worry, as if he worries what her going back will do.

6) Once they're back on Naboo, he seems surprised again that Amidala is building an army - "This is an unexpected move for her. It's too aggressive. Lord Maul,be mindful. Let her make the first move." ...He seems to have no idea what she is planning.

I submit that he was still a powerful Sith Lord, but not the omniscent entity he's portrayed as, at least at this point... his power is building, as the Dark Side is growing, but it's not quite to the point yet where Sheev is all powerful.

 

Your logic is pretty sound for the most part, but you have to remember that when Sidious speaks to Gunray he generally isn't being completely honest with him.

According to the dialogue to Amidala "I have assurances from the Chancellor himself, his ambassadors did arrive." he knew the whole time. Although this was after the first scenes I admit.

I think he is feigning having to "accelerate (their) plans" when invasion was always his intention. And if they kill the Jedi that is just a bonus.

Also, remember later when he talks to Maul on Coruscant he mentions "move against the Jedi first", so it would appear he knew Gunray was withholding the info that they escaped.

But he does initially want the treaty signed, yes. It is his original plan, but he doesn't expect for certain that he won't have to use a back-up. Queen Amidala he thinks will either sign the treaty (possibly being killed by the TF whether she signs or not), or what ends up happening - escape to Coruscant. Both options give him the opportunity to create sympathy for their planet in the Senate.

 

I think Palpatine is genuinely angry that the Chancellor sent the Jedi. Just because he knew before he talked to the Neimoidians doesn't mean he isn't upset about it. And I think it is true that he wasn't planning on starting the invasion until later, but the Chancellor forced his hand.

As I've posted before, I don't think Palpatine ever cared whether the treaty was signed or not. The idea of the treaty was just something to get the Trade Federation to go along with his risky plan. He really just wanted Amidala killed during the invasion in order to induce the Senate to oust Valorum and generate a sympathy vote for Palpatine. As it turned out, Amidala herself testifying before the Senate and calling for a vote of no confidence in her "strongest supporter" served his purposes just as well.

So having salvaged his initially thwarted plan through improvisation, I think Palpatine was quite concerned when Amidala made an unexpected announcement that she was returning to Naboo. He wasn't expecting her to go against the wisdom of all her advisors, since he viewed her as so easily controlled by others. He's even more concerned when it's reported to him that she's forming an alliance with the Gungans and preparing a counter-attack, since he doesn't understand how two groups so filled with mistrust of each other could suddenly start working together for mutual advantage. It isn't immediately obvious how all this could interfere with his plans, but the fact that he failed to predict any of these things happening fills him with anxiety.

Of course in the end Palpatine's plans aren't thwarted, but only because Admidala already helped him remove Valorum from office. If only she had refused to do so, then she could have defeated the Trade Federation on her own without facilitating the rise of a strongman dictator. The tragedy is that Amidala's realization that she couldn't keep waiting on powerful men to solve all her problems came too late.

 

Good point.
I didn't mean to imply he wasn't angry, just more that he saw it coming. He orders Gunray to dispose of them because it is killing two birds with one stone.

When you say he wasn't planning on starting the invasion yet, how come?

I could see that as a possibility, but it still feels to me like he is using that as an excuse with Gunray, to shroud the fact Gunray is getting in over his head. Gunray seems surprised, but believes Sidious has motives that align with his own greed. Of course partly motivated by fear.

I guess I am just splitting hairs, but to me it appears Sidious lies to Gunray onscreen quite a few times. He doesn't truly respect the TF, and I don't see why he would care if they know what is really going on.

Interesting.
I am undecided, I do agree the TF's occupation of Naboo didn't matter to him beneath the surface level, but he seems pretty insistent on the treaty being signed, enough for me to think it is his "Plan A". If only that it makes the situation more dire in the Reublic's eyes if the TF are successful. It is a bit of a parallel to AOTC, when Palpatine's plan seems to have shifted, and he is using Dooku to attempt to form a treaty with the opposite side. It was probably always his intention, but it feels like a juxtaposition between the two films.
A treaty to maintain the illusion of legality for the invasion, to incite unrest among people of the Republic in TPM, then a treaty for all-out war which provokes the Separatists to fight in AOTC.

I agree with this.
It is hard to say either way though.
I'm unsure, even if Palpatine didn't expect it (like you guys are saying when he calls it an "unexpected move"), I don't know if it actually messed with his plan.
Out of curiosity, what do you think would have happened without her going back to her planet?
It seems he seizes the opportunity with "This will work to our advantage" but I am a bit confused as to the alternative scenario.


Off-topic, I have said before that Palpatine's "Go back? (...) Stay here, where it's safe!" is an inversion of AOTC.
He calls the corrupt Galactic central where a lot of bad stuff happens in the PT "safe". Seems like a metaphor for the false sense of security...

"When we reach the capital, things will change..." paints their destination as a haven that will solve all their problems.
They get there and realise the corrupt system is actually not going to help them.
The next time Padme returns to Coruscant, there are several attempts on her life.
"I shouldn't have come back..."

Well said.
Yes, her calling for a "vote of no confidence" didn't actually change anything for herself, only Palpatine. And it is echoed in ROTS when she continues to question the system.
I also like the fact Palpatine uses all the Skywalkers in his machinations at some stage...
Padme in Ep1, Anakin in Ep3, arguably Leia in Ep4, Luke in Ep6.

 

I think Palpatine would have delayed Order 66, if they would gave sent Anakin to kill Grievous. I do think Sidious foresaw the Council would send Obi-Wan, just like he foresaw most events in the PT and OT. I also thought if Anakin did go after Grievous Palpatine would have implemented something in the Clones Chips to leave Anakin safe, leaving Anakin unaware and confused of the situation. Leaving Palpatine to spin his story to Anakin, while THE JEDI ORDER are on the run.

 

I think he would have gone with a much easier solution: tell Grievous to leave Utapau immediately. After all, it was only "Republic intelligence" which said he was there. If that turned out to be false, or if they just missed out on him, it wouldn't have looked dubious at all. Much better to wait for the appropiate time than to risk an asset like Grievous. Especially when you consider that with Dooku and Grievous dead, the Jedi might have tried to make sure that he gives up his emergency powers. He can't really risk that while he has no apprentice, and is left with no easy access to Anakin.

Order 66 might not even have included Anakin to begin with. He did lead the Clones in the attack on the Jedi Temple, so either he wasn't on their list, or they were specifically imformed by Palpatine that Anakin was on their side.

 

The scene also has a wipe to the next scene. It is likely that Lucas trimmed the smile scene there, unlike in the Senate.

Not really. He knows that she intended a confrontation with the Federation. He just didn't know how it would be done, since she didn't have a plan yet. And when he learned of the plan, he thought it was unusual.

 

That's a pretty big assumption you're making. Either he trimmed the scene specifically to change the tone of Palpatine's reaction, or McDiarmid played it differently. I fail to see the functional difference even. What's on screen is on screen.

It still fits better with it. The sentiment communicated by that line is that Palpatine is surprised by what Amidala is doing. Altering the earlier scene from the script so that he is surprised that she is even returning reinforces that narrative throughline and makes it stronger.

 

I think McDiarmid raising the corner of his mouth during the "too aggressive" scene communicates distaste. He doesn't like it.

 

It's not necessarily that he can't use it or adjust the plan accordingly but it wasn't exactly what he had predicted, which is unusual. Of course, it may have possibly worked out in his favour, as if Padme had stayed, Maul would not have been dispatched to Naboo, Qui-Gonn would not have been killed and Anakin's fate would have taken a different route. He still got the war he wanted but he's still surprised that he can BE surprised.

 

Indeed, Palpatine isn't omniscient and he can't control everything. He can maneuver pieces into place but he can't control everyone's actions or fate.

 

Combining these two comments pretty much sums up my opinion on this topic:

Timing is critical to Palpatine's plans. The Jedi were clearly suspicious of him already, meaning as soon as Grievous dies, they will immediately ask him to give up his emergency powers. Of course he doesn't want this, so he and the Jedi will turn against each other as soon as this happens. He needs Anakin to be with him in Coruscant during this decisive moment in the war in order to convert him, therefore, Anakin must not be in Utapau when this happens.
So he purposely recommended Anakin to ensure that he doesn't go. An extra bonus is that the council's rejection of the recommendation will further worsen Anakin's relationship with the rest of the council, but I'd say the timing was the primary reason. It's not the end of the world for Palpatine if the council does decide to send Anakin though, he can just tell Grievous to leave to another planet and delay his plans for next time. Anakin would probably find evidence on Utapau to show that the separatists actually were there, but he just didn't get there in time. Palpatine could even make Anakin suspect that someone on the Jedi council might've leaked information to the separatists.

And of course, Palpatine had everything else set up before revealing the location of Grievous. Anakin was in Coruscant (the main purpose of getting himself "captured" by Dooku at the beginning of Revenge of the Sith was probably to get Anakin, who was fighting in the Outer Rim at the time, to return to Coruscant). There were enough battles spread across the galaxy that only two other powerful Jedi (in addition to Anakin) were still in Coruscant, with Yoda not being one of them (I also believe that he intentionally ordered the separatists to attack the Wookies' home in order to get Yoda away from Coruscant). Revealing Grievous and recommending Anakin would leave Anakin with only one other powerful Jedi in Coruscant, whom he can easily defeat. If things weren't perfect the way he wanted, he would continue on with more battles in random planets until he found the right opportunity to reveal Grievous's location. Palpatine is a master of logistics, and is very patient.