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ST The Last Jedi Box Office Discussion (see warning on page 307 before posting)

Discussion in 'Sequel Trilogy' started by James T Kirk, Jan 3, 2016.

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How will Episode VIII's box office draw compare to TFA?

  1. It will surpass TFA

    13.8%
  2. It will be comparable

    38.3%
  3. Drop/Significant drop

    47.9%
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  1. Darth Chiznuk

    Darth Chiznuk Superninja of Future Films star 8 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Oct 31, 2012
  2. hana_solo

    hana_solo Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Feb 4, 2016
    Don't expect much from China:

    http://chinafilminsider.com/screen-china-force-not-strong-rogue-one/


    China Box Office@ChinaBoxOffice 48 minutes ago

    ROGUE ONE: A STAR WARS STORY debuted with ¥71M ($10.3M) on Friday, 1/3 The Force Awaken's Saturday opening last year. #RogueOne
     
  3. tokilamockingbrd

    tokilamockingbrd Jedi Knight star 4

    Registered:
    May 12, 2015
    I think it will be down quite a bit. But only because TFA was ridiculously high. It will be a ANH - ESB situation where even if EP 8 is better than TFA the box office was a lighting in a bottle situation and I just don't see them catching that 2 years later, it took 30+ years of pent up demand for a sequel to ROTJ to get there.
     
  4. hana_solo

    hana_solo Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Feb 4, 2016
    yeah, since TFA likely maxed out, there won't be a visible "Paul Walker" effect since there's minimal room to grow.
     
  5. ewoksimon

    ewoksimon Chosen One star 5

    Registered:
    Oct 26, 2009
    Early guessing: $750 million domestic. $2 billion worldwide.
     
  6. NotSoScruffyLooking

    NotSoScruffyLooking Jedi Master star 3

    Registered:
    Mar 20, 2009
    280M Opening Weekend, 1.5B Domestic, 3.1B Worldwide

    I think Fisher's death will push it past Titanic.
     
  7. jofos

    jofos Jedi Knight star 2

    Registered:
    Apr 25, 2015
    I don't think 8 will be bad at the box office but I don't see it being that close to TFA either. Two big reasons is well there has been two Star Wars movies in two years with 8 being the third and 6 or 8 months of hype verse the 13 or so months between teaser one and the opening of TFA. Everyone here is excited and waiting for it but we are all Star Wars nerds (face it that's why we're hear) but the casual fan has nothing to be excited about.
     
  8. jedijax

    jedijax Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    May 2, 2013
    Iron Man 3 dropped from Avengers more than R1 dropped from TFA. AOU came to 73% of the first Avengers.

    TDKR came to 84% of TDK.

    I'd say the very bottom would be about 65% of TFA which would be around $609 million.

    70% would be $656 million
    75% would be $702 million
    80% would be $749 million
    85% would be $796 million

    If I had to throw out a prediction, I'd say Episode 8, if it's decent, will fall between 70% and 80% of TFA's total.
     
  9. ladygrey45

    ladygrey45 Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 30, 2015
    it's going to be the biggest movie out of 2017 box office wise. I wish it had a spring release date like it was originally supposed to come out this may,
     
    Darth Smurf likes this.
  10. tokilamockingbrd

    tokilamockingbrd Jedi Knight star 4

    Registered:
    May 12, 2015


    Ya I would say 600m is the goal. Anything else up from there is gravy. For TFA before it came out 500m was the goal, kinda the target you wanted to hit... then Jurassic world game out so beating that became the target.
     
  11. jedijax

    jedijax Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    May 2, 2013
    The debate has started on the Rogue One thread and this one gets buried on the 3rd page. It's about that time to start the ball rolling for predictions.

    I am VERY surprised that people think Ep8 will make closer to R1 than to TFA.

    Let's do some math (like I did on the R1 thread).

    AOU made 74% of Avengers 1.

    TDKR made 84% of TDK

    Iron Man 2 made just about as much as IM and IM3 made more than both.

    Even AOTC made 70% of TPM.

    70% of TFA is about $655 million.
    74% is $692 million
    84% is $786 million

    No WAY Ep8 is making "only" $600 million. It will be very close to that or a little over by the end of the 2017 holiday.

    Anyone think Ep8 will make less than $200 million in its OW?

    AOU made 93% of Avenger's opening despite much lower reviews.

    TDKR made MORE than TDK ow.

    R1's multiplier will end up being around 3.35-3.4

    $200 million with R1's multiplier gives us between $670 million and $680 million. TFA's multiplier gives us $754 million on a $200 million OW.

    A $200 million OW would have a 3.0 multiplier to give us $600 million.

    $600 million with a 3.4 multiplier would open with $176 million.

    Anticipation is higher than for most sequels due to the mysteries (Rey's background and Luke coming into action).

    I say that it will likely hit $700 million.
     
  12. Darth Chiznuk

    Darth Chiznuk Superninja of Future Films star 8 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Oct 31, 2012
    100 billion dollars.
     
    Guidman likes this.
  13. Guidman

    Guidman Skywalker Saga Mod and Trivia Host star 6 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Dec 29, 2016
    This is 2017. That amount of money doesn't even exist. That's like saying it will earn a kajillion bajillion dollars.
     
    Darth Chiznuk likes this.
  14. Darth Chiznuk

    Darth Chiznuk Superninja of Future Films star 8 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Oct 31, 2012
    Nah, that'll be Episode IX. ;)
     
    Guidman likes this.
  15. Dagobah Dragonsnake

    Dagobah Dragonsnake Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Feb 7, 2016
    One thing VIII has that ESB did not is all the questions and set ups from the previous film, and the cliff hanger and paternity questions. Though there was anticipation for ESB, ANH was done as pretty much a stand alone (or potential stand alone if it faltered). You could project out of the original Star Wars that the momentum was now on the side of the Rebellion and after creaming the Death Star, it was all down hill. Sure there was a bit of "who is Leia going to end up with?" but in the main, there was no "Who is Luke's father?". At that point we knew who Luke's father was. Obi-wan told him. So ESB needed to restart with things not going so smoothly, by the Empire striking back to reset the conflict. Even the title says, "Never mind the happy ending in the previous move, because contrary to what you may have felt during the denouement of Star Wars, the Empire is pissed and on the verge of smashing the Rebellion, so come on back because there is more story here".

    VIII, on the other hand says, "We sucked you into the story in TFA and left you dangling, so if you liked it and want to find out what happens next, come on back. Plus were are going to show you all kinds of new stuff and new characters, and the ride has just begun".

    70% TFA minimum.
     
  16. chris hayes

    chris hayes Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Nov 13, 2012
    $1.7 to $1.8 billion sounds about right cause your going to get a natural Drop off of 20% or so - TFA was a sequel to ROTJ & fans had been waiting 32yrs for this & we had not had a Star Wars movie for 10yrs & the Big 3 were back so it was always going to be big & now all that's gone & even though it will be Leia's last appearance that won't be enough to get close to TFA box office.....
     
  17. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    $580m domestic. $700m foreign. Dollar will remain strong for much of the year, pushing down foreign revenue. Star Wars burnout is far from happening, but Rogue One eroded some of the event status of December Star Wars, so domestic box office will be down significantly from TFA though up significantly from Rogue One.
     
  18. SaintKenobi1322

    SaintKenobi1322 Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Jul 17, 2013
    Agree 100 percent, and this is why I have been saying all along that Luke is going to be front and center in the teaser trailer, poster, marketing and merch this time. They are going to want everyone to know that they one goodie they held back from us last time is going to be presented in all its glory to avoid the usual drop-off at the box office for the middle film of a trilogy. It is quite brilliant when you think about it.

    IMO, in the trailers, we'll see more and more of Luke building to the point of him springing into action, and leave it there. People will be practically PANTING if they do this right.
     
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  19. jedijax

    jedijax Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    May 2, 2013

    $580 million domestic? How the? What the? How do you propose that even happens?

    What do you think the first 3 weekends will be that leads to a TOTAL of $580 million (only about $50 million above R1).

    I don't see it being much under $580 million by the end of the holiday, let alone overall.

    $200 million first weekend
    $90 million second weekend (because Sunday is XME)+$90 million midweek =$380 million
    $65 million third weekend (because Sunday is NYE)+$100 million midweek (because of XM and XM+1)=$545 million
    Then NYD is on Monday so add another $20-$25 million ish for $565-$570 million MINIMUM by January 2.

    And if that is a VERY high 80% of the total (about where TFA was and where R1 would be) that leads to $712 million. That's a nice 76% of TFA. It will probably be a little higher honestly.
     
  20. SaintKenobi1322

    SaintKenobi1322 Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Jul 17, 2013
    First film to go over a billion domestic.
     
  21. Ubraniff Zalkaz

    Ubraniff Zalkaz Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Feb 26, 2014
    Episode 8 is going to take all of the money.
     
  22. GregMcP

    GregMcP Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Jul 7, 2015
    ALL the money.

    ... I wonder if this Title announcement was box office related. Rogue One seems like it has had its run. It's slipping down the Top 10 movies list and getting less screenings. The old Hype Train has run out of steam, so time to get the next train out of the station. No gaps.
     
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  23. Darth Smurf

    Darth Smurf Small, but Lethal star 6

    Registered:
    Dec 22, 2015
    I thinkt this title will boost the income. GA will love it
     
  24. Drewton

    Drewton Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Jan 8, 2009
    Nothing will top the largest box office gross ever which was the prequels. Period.
     
  25. Forbidden Island

    Forbidden Island Jedi Knight star 1

    Registered:
    Feb 23, 2015
    Exactly. I think the movie will be inbetween R1 and TFA, gross wise. There is still a lot of "mystery" factor. After this movie, though, I think the revenue will significantly drop off. Star Wars won't be new and exciting anymore except to the dedicated nerds.
     
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