Senate The Middle East Discussion Thread

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Alright Ender

Anyways I think it's clear that "improving the lives of Afghanis" is a post-hoc PR reasoning and not actually why we went into Afghanistan.

 

yeah, and Libya

that seems more like a map of places we have invaded and the countries surrounding them

 

Relax, guys. I was answering the "conceivable maps" query.
When I'm grouping info for RPG games set on Earth, I usually group Afghanistan with Asia.
I'm discussing it here because the conversation's here. I'm fine with relocating to the Asian thread.

 

So you think the best option would have been to do provide no humanitarian assistance at all? That seems like a terrible option. There is no guarantee that just not sending any economic development would simply have caused the Taliban to lose power - rather I’d argue that economic development is the only way which can cause a population to start to challenge their government.

 

https://www.afghanaid.org.uk/is-afghanistan-in-the-middle-east-afghanaid-explains

"But for now, if someone asks you if Afghanistan is in the Middle-East, you can just tell them the short answer: no."

Realistically, there's probably at least a case to be made for deividing up an "Asia" thread into more subsets than "MIddle East" and "not Middle East"

 

You can have humanitarian assistance, but if the leadership at the top is of bad faith and is only interested in its own power and control over the people, especially when it is having such a regressive ideology like the Talibans, how can you hope that it can achieve economic development and better life conditions? I'm saying that there's no easy answer to this. And change and improvement takes a lot more time and is more complicated than what we can think.

Unless now, one thing can happen is if the people of Afghanistan hold the Talibans accountable, forcing them to be more moderate. I don't have my hopes high regarding this, but recently, there has been a women's protest in Kabul against the Talibans rule even if it didn't end up well. That is something we could not have seen more than 20 years ago, having Afghani women protesting against the Talibans.

 

I don’t really think you can take a position of ‘it’s all too complicated’ because the leaders of the Western world need to make decisions on these matters. All of these decisions have consequences and the one with the least negative impact for the Afghan people ought to be the one which we ‘collectively’ take as a power bloc.

Yes, humanitarian assistance can sometimes get used by the government for nefarious purposes. There are other ways to ensure economic and social assistance helps to Afghan people without going through government hands. A country could literally just come in and say that they want to build a road network for the Afghan people, or that they want to improve infrastructure. There is no reason that countries can’t do that, but it’s not the most beneficial for private companies. Even from a foreign policy perspective these things are good for the West in security terms because it would have the advantage of helping the Afghan people (and not allowing their material conditions to radicalise them) and you don’t have the issue of invading a country.

I mean arguing about what’s truly in the Middle East is just acquiescing to an imperial-era term anyway. West Asia, or Islamic World are probably much more accurate terms for either geography or culture.

 

Well, maybe at the end of the day, it's a good thing I'm not a world leader.

Otherwise, I generally agree with you, even if I'm rather skeptical of this whole situation.

 

Members of Afghanistan's women's football (soccer) team have fled to Pakistan.

 

Since China has been building a military base in Tajikistan, could that harm the diplomatic relationship with current Taliban regime or would both of the Taliban and the Chinese work together against common threats if China sends counterterrorists units or troops go into Afghanistan?

 

I don't think it will hurt the relationship between the Taliban and China. But it will rather hurt the relationship between Russia and China. You must remember that Tajikistan was formely part of the Soviet Union (and the former Imperial Russia under the Tsar), and ever since its collapse in 1991, the Russian Federation has tried to keep its sphere of influence over its former empire, especially in central Asia. If I'm not mistaken, there are even some agreements that Russia will military defend those countries that were part of the Soviet Union.

Something really interesting has been happening during the past decade: when the Western world had its eyes focused on Ukraine and Crimea (Russia's sphere of influence on the west), China has tried to eat Russia's sphere of influence on the east with its Belt and Road Initiative and now tries to implement military bases. I don't think Vladimir Poutine likes that at all, but it also shows that Russia is rather an old declining empire compared to China. And the Russians and the Chinese never really liked each other (this might have something to do with old grudges since the Tsarist empire and the Qing empire over some contested territories and also Russian colonization over China in the 19th and 20th centuries). Right now they might be allies since it is convenient, especially against the U.S.. But if you remove the U.S., they won't stay frends much longer.

 

All true but if China did start to send troops to Afghanistan, like for counterterrorism against the uyghurs insurgency, I think that it could also hurt the Taliban diplomatic relationship with China because the Taliban are somewhat connected to uyghurs peoples insurgent groups.

Also keep in mind the Chinese regime is communist while the Taliban is a religious fundamentalists group or multiple groups because of breakaway factions too.

Another reason why I think the relationship will fail sooner or later is that the Taliban regime are tricking China into think the Taliban is going to crackdown on the uyghurs like the Taliban also Lying about the crackdowns making sure Al qaeda won’t have a safe have in Afghanistan.

 

Yes, that might happen and it may damage the relationship between the Taliban regime and China. But I don't think that the leaders in Beijing are that stupid to send troops to Afghanistan immediately like the Americans and the Soviets did. One thing that both the Americans and the Soviets seem to not have understood is that hard power (military power) doesn't always work, especially on an unstable country like Afghanistan. China on the other hand has been using soft power by gradually offering help, building and buying up countries infrastructures and winning other countries' favors, even countries with questionable regimes (dictatorships or broken democracies). Then after that, you can install your own facilities and military power in those regions.

Right now, I think it is in the interest of the Taliban to get the favors of a country like China, even if it means somehow betraying fellow muslim groups (and it won't be the first time: you have to look at other muslim countries like Turkey, Saudi Arabia or Iran which have remained silent regarding the fate of the Uyghurs in China, and even voted against a motion at the U.N. Human Right council to investigate and condemn China's treatment of the Uyghurs). But in the long run, China's relationship with the Taliban may someday backfire, because, after all, you're still dealing with a fanatic, radical islamic terrorist regime.

 

Do you think Putin might be dumb or dangerous enough to let Russia build up his army and in invade Afghanistan again?

I don’t know about you but apart of me hopes that China or Russia invades Afghanistan because and it could be the downfall of both those empires Because Afghanistan, Pakistani or even India is a graveyard of empires.

The reason why I want is because I believe China and Russia are the biggest threats to world peace.

I don’t like the Taliban or any Islamic extremists groups but I am predicting something severe is going to happen in Afghanistan with either Russia or China doing something dangerous and there could be a new dangerous forum of Islamic extremism in Afghanistan that might get worse.

 

I cannot predict every move that a world leader will do. But to answer your question: no, I don't think Putin will be so dumb to build up its army and invade Afghanistan again. Russia is no longer like the Soviet Union during its glory time, and Russia doesn't have the military power nor the wealth to go to military adventures abroad. I think Putin is more focused on keeping Russia's sphere of influence, we've seen that with Ukraine and Crimea during the past decade, and I think Putin is starting to realize that the biggest threat to its sphere of influence may not come from the European Union or the U.S., but from China, which is slowly eating it on its back. But Russia doesn't have the wealth nor the military power to challenge China, like the Soviet Union may have once did, especially after the Sino-Soviet split in the 1960's. And I'm sure that Putin doesn't like at all having the Talibans at the doorstep of its sphere of influence and having China installing military facilities in central Asia.

However, I think that there's one tool that Russia might be able to use to keep China in check, and that is India: last year after clashes happened at the border between China and India over contested territories, guess what? Russia came in and decided to sell advanced weapons to India and becoming one of its main supplier. Some analysts predicted that this was going to be a headache for the U.S.. But in reality, it's an even bigger headache to China, especially when India's population may surpass China's population and becoming a regional economic and military power, while China's population is in decline with a growing older population due to the One Child policy. China is experiencing many difficulties internally, and a growing older population doesn't allow the country to remain an economic superpower, while India has a very young population with a cheap labor, allowing it to become a more important regional and economic actor in the region for the next decades. Somewhere inside the Communist Party of China, some leaders are worried about their growing neighbour on the other side of the Sino-Indian border, and Russia knows it, and it knows that China and India have a deep hatred against each other. And India didn't like at all either that the Talibans have regained power in Afghanistan.

I think that Russia won't make any dumb military move in Afghanistan, nor China. They both know that military campaigns are expensive and can result in failure, especially in a country like Afghanistan, something that the U.S. has only started to learn recently. The traditional way of war doesn't work anymore and it has been demonstrated by the U.S. failures in both Irak and Afghanistan. Today's way of doing war might be more through soft-power and economic and political power: buy yourself some allies, rather than trying to invade their territory, and win their favor.

 

Makes sense what your saying but on the contrary, China is building a military force in Tajikistan which is concerning plus China s trying to build up its military recruitment and power like what Nazis germany and the Soviet Union did.

 

Would you also say it's like what Israel does, as Israel has tried to build up recruitment and power?

 

yes but Israel 5 million and the Jewish population is 12 million in America.

And on the other hand,China has the biggest population on the planet and they can conquer the world faster.

I would say the biggest threat coming from the Muslim regimes are Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, and maybe Turkey because of Turkey wanting to become like Neo Ottoman Empire regime.

On the terrorist side of thing, the biggest threats in international community would be isis and Al qaeda

The biggest threat to Jews around the world when it comes to terrorism is Hezbollah and Hamas

Hamas says they only want fight Israel not Jews around the world which I don’t believe them because Hamas said that just to get international recognition.

 

Since you mentioned the Uighurs above...let's say hypothetically an Uighur extremist group carries out a terrorist attack in China. And we know that the Chinese government has treated the Uighurs horribly. Wouldn't it be reasonable to assume this attack is a response to the Chinese government's actions?

So when the Israeli government treats the Palestinians horribly, and a Palestinian extremist group attacks Israel...isn't it reasonable to assume that this attack is in response to the Israeli government's actions? So really, the biggest threat to Jews isn't Hamas, it's their own right-wing extremists. Even if Hamas were to disappear tomorrow, the Israeli right will continue to do things that anger Arabs, which will continue the cycle of violence.

 

Agreed about the Israeli right wing but even if the Israeli government was a Bernie sanders like government, hamas would still be in active engagement with Israel because hamas hates Israel and all Jews period.

Like I mentioned before while backin the other thread, two wrongs don’t make a right, and Hamas are not much in away victims either.


Hamas is also in obstacle towards the peace process and violated it during the Oslo accord before the second intifada started in 2000.

So you can’t just blame Israel alone, Hamas needs held accountable for there war crimes too, like isis or al qaeda are.

I am not saying Hamas is isis at all like Benjamin Netanyahu has said but Hamas has killed American Jews in Israel too and they are fundamentalist Islamist terror group.

Going on to Hamas like I said before, Hamas want all Jews around the world exterminated and are only saying that there fight is with the Israeli alone is a lie. Hamas changed there charter just to get international recognition just to get off the hook.

Unfortunately Jimmy carter and Roger waters love hamas.

 

Israel has killed Americans, too. If that's a condemnation, it applies to Israel as well.

As always, the lines of criticism against other organizations and countries can frequently be applied to Israel, but a consistent sort of prejudice shows up as to how those never 'count'.

 

Why is Hamas being pardon since they have killed more Jews than white supremacists have?

I am not accusing anybody on the boards of supporting or endorsing Hamas but why is Roger waters and jimmy carter so anti Semitic saying Hamas is committed to the peace process when Hamas also doesn’t recognize a two state solution either?

If Israel were destroyed that would be equivalent to a second Holocaust.

 

Why is a raven like a writing desk? Irrelevant questions to avoid a post don't actually go anywhere.

Just for clarity, what is your specific quote of Carter's re: saying Hamas is committed to the peace process that you're talking about?