The Monty Hall Problem

Agreed Chet

 

That's like saying if you're on the wrong side of the road, you'll be on the right side if you cross over

But if there's a 2/3 chance that you're on the wrong side, wouldn't you switch sides?

Then there's only a 1/3 chance you're on the wrong side.

Simple common sense.

 

EagleIFilms ... to the dark side you are drawn.

 

You pick a wrong box, he opens the other wrong box, you switch, you win. Correct?

Correct... if you knew you'd picked the wrong one, which you wouldn't.. therefore you've got as equal a chance of being right as wrong.

 

Poodu
OAC
Mayhem

You haven't answered my question

"If you pick the wrong box to start with, you will ALWAYS win if you switch"

Please tell me if you disagree with this statement and why?

 

lets change your way of thinking halibut. What if I picked the right box first time around? Is there a chance I could do that?

And EagleI, the point is, you don't know know if you are on the right side of the road. You have been told that this is the probability. And cause that's what you are taught you think it is right.

take a coin, toss it 10,000 times. Will it be head 5,000 times and tails 5,000 times? no, because mathematical probabilities do not always pan out. Example, The national lottery. Stats say there will be three rollovers in the first year according to sales. Yet there were three consecutive rollovers in 1996. Real life is different.

 

Correct... if you knew you'd picked the wrong one, which you wouldn't.. therefore you've got as equal a chance of being right as wrong.

You don't know that you picked the wrong box, but there's a 2/3 chance that you did.

If you play the odds, there's a 2/3 chance that if you switch, you win.

Now, give us a logical argument against that.

 

lets change your way of thinking halibut. What if I picked the right box first time around? Is there a chance I could do that?

Absolutely. If you pick the right box, you will lose if you switch. I have said this before. But you only have a 1/3 chance of picking the right box.

If you pick the wrong box to start with and switch, you will win. And you have a 2/3 chance of picking the wrong box

 

read my above post. Playing the odds in amaths lesson is different to playing the odds in real life. Do the coin trick.

 

As I see it:
There is the first choice, in which you have 1/3 or 1/1,000,000 chance of choosing right. Then all boxes but two are eliminated and, effectively, you are asked to choose again, from two alternatives. Whether you have chosen well the first time or not is of no consequence. There is a 50-50 chance, because the other box has the same chance of being the winning one from the initial amount, be it three or a million.

 

@Halibut... there is nothing wrong with your statement. The only problem is at that moment in time, you don't know if you have the wrong box or not...

 

think of the national lottery....


after 50 weeks: (theoretical)

the number 43 has been drawn out 40 times.
the number 7 has yet to be drawn.


Which number has the highest probability of being drawn out in week 51`?

 

don't only think from the left side of your brain........

 

None of them do.

But that's not pertenant.

 

"If you pick the wrong box to start with, you will ALWAYS win if you switch"
there is nothing wrong with your statement

Excellent. So you agree.

Now, what is the probability of picking the wrong box to start with?

 

Oooh! Oooh! I know! I know!

//waves hand manically

 

there is everything wrong with your statement. Answer my question, is it possible to pick the right box at the beginning?

 

I DID answer your question

Absolutely. If you pick the right box, you will lose if you switch. I have said this before. But you only have a 1/3 chance of picking the right box.


There is everything wrong with my statement?

"If you pick the wrong box to start with, you will ALWAYS win if you switch"

Please tell me how this is not true

 

You're never gonna sway me Halibut

It's 50-50 to me and always will be.

Mind you, I've figured out what's going on with our arguments. We're disputing two different aspects of the same situation. I'll let you try and figure out what they are...

 

I see!
I retract my previous statement and now fully support halibut.

 

I can tell you EXACTLY what they are, Mayhem

Your point is correct if the hosts opens another box AT RANDOM. This is not the case. If you pick a wrong box, he HAS to open the other empty box.

 

I retract my previous statement and now fully support halibut.

w00t!

 

Out of interest what shade of purple are you Halibut?

 

I'm quite calm. When I first learned about the problem, I was just like this!

What does surprise me is that OAC, who has studied maths and stats and stuff doesn't agree with the central point

"If you pick the wrong box to start with, you will ALWAYS win if you switch"

And he says my logic is flawed!

 

@Halibut... you're basing it on everything that has gone before. I'm basing it on that one decision. Choose between two, and only two boxes. One has money, the other is empty. Just you don't know which is which...