Solo Solo box-office discussion

Probably gonna have to fire KK. It's the only logical move. /s

 

Different stories are that Lucas asked LK to do a Solo movie before he left and Lucas gave them stories not only for the ST but other movies.

KK is also a Solo fan and probably thought he was the most popular character is all of Star Wars even over Luke. Maybe when played by HF. That's why Obi-Wan has the buzz because of EM.

That's the best feel good about a movie prospect they have in their arsenal right now.

What is losing in this case though? What is the box office number that comes off as losing?

IX would need to actually "tank" for a Star Wars Saga movie for that to even be a consideration. Meaning like a well below billion dollars worldwide take.

 

Just to clarify, Grace R. never said Filoni should run LF but instead would make a good consulting partner for KK

 

Hopefully like this...

"Kathy Kennedy...

 

Ummm.....he won't care all that much. If anything, they just won't make any more Solo films. Not very lucrative.

 

Yes, that's the logical reaction. "Thanks for the $4+ billion you brought in on the last three films, but this one underperformed, so... see ya."

 

I'm not sure that's right either though - and this may be where Bond comes in as an analogy (ie you don't need to be HUGE to keep getting sequels). I think SW is big enough to do both - make films for the nostalgia crowd and also move into fresher territories. And I think that's what we're already seeing happen. A something for everyone policy. Anyway, let's see where Solo ends up. I still wouldn't rule out a sequel - or at least Han reappearing in another dark times film.

 

You're right, it should be big enough to do both, if they go about it the right way. Recasting the older characters clearly wasn't the right way, the people have spoken. So if the anthologies stop moving the needle because they messed up. Then they'd better hope RJ or D&D deliver with their new stuff, otherwise you're gonna be seeing Bob Iger personally showing up to Daisy Ridley's doorstep with a dump truck full of cash and getting down on his hands and knees begging her to do an Episode X much earlier than expected, as a last resort.

 

This is the first I have heard of George wanting a Solo movie. However, I know that Boba Fett was the movie George wanted to do and had a rough draft for

 

Like I say, let's see where Solo ends up. Alden's good in the film. I don't think that's the key factor. A factor, sure. But there's more to it than that, and I don't think it's game over for young Solo onscreen yet.

 

Decision making by looking in the rear view mirror isn't a sign of great management. Much of that $4b was due to inherited good will from a brand someone else built.

Solo underperformed to the extent that even Disney had to publically revise downward their own, already low, projections. Add to all other missteps (the troubled productions on three out four films, the huge drop off of TLJ box office after OW, toys languishing on the shelves, a complete rout of the franchise in the fastest growing China market, firing of directors, and Solo having to reshoot most of the film making this the most expensive SW film ever, the decision to release the movie at this particular time and the decision to make this particular movie at all.)

Corrective and visible action absolutely is called for.

 

Not by a long shot, imho.

Solo is a bit slow out of the gate. But I could see it having pretty strong legs.

 

Would you like to attempt a prediction? Higher or lower than 800 mln in total?

 

I’m gonna guess the total take will be around 650m.

 

If Alden is smart and has good management he will stay away from any future Star Wars/Han Solo movies.

 

I think if it can come in around there, that would be OK at this point.

 

Pretty sure the contract he signed won't make that an option.

 

RE:
DC and Wonder Woman.

That film had an uphill climb as it faced a LOT of online negativity for over a year before it was released.
And not just from forums, sites such as Collider fairly often did pieces like "Inside sources say that Wonder Woman is a mess/in trouble/going to be terrible." Several sites had stories with something negative about DC because that generated clicks.
Because DC was and pretty much still is, a popular target for negativity.
If a new DC film is announced then you will get a lot of comments like "A new DC film, that is going to suck."

With WW I did see attempts to down-vote the score on IMDB a few days before it was released.
Several hundred one-votes were cast.
In that case enough other votes were made to offset that.
And here I don't really think it was the "alt-right" but DC haters and extreme MCU fans that were behind it.
The hateful comments I saw wasn't about SJW or those things but that MCU was awesome and DC was terrible and if you liked DC then you were an idiot. And there was similar comments from the other side as well.
The DC/Marvel fan wars got so terrible that I stopped going to certain movie sites because threads talking about Superhero films would quickly degenerate into flame brawls and were just depressing.
And the worst was after JL did very poorly, then the haters were all doing high-fives and cartwheels, celebrating, "We destroyed DC, yes we are awesome!"

What I think happened there and might be happening here as well, is extreme fans that feel the need to hate anything that they see as "competition".
So they are no longer defining themselves by what they love but what they hate. DC, MCU, SW etc.
And it gets to the point that they can not just be happy that what they like does well but the competition must fail also.

Though I don't often agree with him, John Campea had a pretty good piece several months ago about the toxic nature of extreme fans, of both DC and MCU.
And that it was pretty stupid because the people that make the DC and MCU movies don't hate the competition and neither side is served by Superhero films doing badly, regardless if it is DC or Marvel.

RE: Solo, there is for sure an excess of negativity and one that is not really productive.
The BO, I don't think the overseas BO is all that affected by the "alt-right", the interest just wasn't there.
The domestic BO and good legs?
Well you can look at Wonder Woman or Jumanji 2 or Greatest Showman as films that didn't have super big openings but did very well despite this.
But an opening weekend "failure", which I think it will be called if some of these numbers are correct.
That can lead to it's own downward spiral.
A film is called a "bomb" or "disappointment" and that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy and people don't see it because of that.
Even with positive WOM.

Take JL, the reviews were not good but better than BvS and Suicide Squad and people seemed to like it better and it had better legs than BvS but after the bad opening weekend, that didn't matter. The overall perception was that it was a bomb.
And here, the big effect was domestic BO. Overseas it did about on par with WW.

In closing, what will happen?
We will get more SW films, that is obvious and I doubt KK is in any danger of loosing her job.
Will there be more Solo films?
Unlike R1, this film sets that up but if the BO is really bad then they might not happen.
Or Han is made to be part of other films, say the Boba Fett film.

Bye for now.
Old Stoneface

 

Yeah, I would have said something similar. But isn't it a disappointing result?

 

Some points:

1 - No movie ( and Justice League is the full prove of it) can be profitable if all you hear, FOR MONTHS, how it's production is troubled, how they had to reshoot mos all of it, how the lead need to take acting classes, etc. It's WAY TOO MUCH negative press and lure away the viewers;

2 - How i said in my prior post, the release date was moronic at best. A:IW, DP2 and Solo basicly aim to the same audience ( unlike Oceans 8 or Incredibles2). They were released in within a month ! Senseless. Solo may make 110 million in the 4 day while DP2 and A:IW will make 71 milion. They canibalized each other. DP2 after a strong start lost just in its second week several Imax and 3D screens. Ridiculous.The fact that DP2 and Solo were released just a week from each other probably cost in between 50-80 million intheir potential box office run. Heck, even A:IW may lost its bid to the 2 billion club because DP2 and Solo. One more time: just a horrendous schedulling decision;

3- From the get going, make a movie abou Han was trick. Of all the OT characters, he's the one with the most complete and satisfatory arc. He starts as a faithles scoundrel who becomes trough his experiences a believer and head of the Rebellion and, plus, finds the love of his life. To make a movie of any period of his life it had to be extrmely good material. That's was not the case here. To be fair it wouldn't be possible at all.
In the end this movie was really never wanted. Its record on social media always was awfull. Its trailers never were among the most viewed after released and if compared with other SW movies ( RO included) clearly draw the least atttention. Upon its opening night it never made Twitter TT and so on.

4 - It's still debateable the SW is such a franchise that can generate a movie per year. Part of its charm always its exclusiveness and event like launching of a new movie. That will be lost with endless, nonsensical movie projects.
You can compare with Marvel whose hundreds characters JUST NOW are finding their way to the big screen. Plus Marvel always had a plan. Think that Thor: The Dark World, one of the least liked Marvel movies, had an important implication for the last Avengers movie because one of the infiniti Stones. Apples and oranges, don't try to compare them.

 

Not really. When you consider the production difficulties, no Ford, stiff summer competition (IW, DP2) and the fact that Disney almost certainly stuck with a May release to clear the way for Poppins at Xmas I think that would be a pretty respectable take.

 

Sure. But there's a lot of room between disappointing and terrible.

 

'Bout time he did that. A lot of those people sending those guys messages got so nasty they should have gotten their internet privileges taken away from them.

 

Here we go again. Are you paid by her?

 

I still don't understand why it couldn't just come out alongside Poppins in December. Two different demographics, right?

So if the production budget was reportedly $250mil, can we assume the marketing budget was around $100mil? If so, that means the movie needs to make something like $700mil just to break even, right?