CT Palpatine's plan in ROTJ was very weak.

So in Return of the Jedi, the Emperor leaked everything about Death Star II to the Alliance. But really, why did he do this? Why didn't he just hedge his bets and wait til it was completed with no need for a shield? Vader even tells him the Rebel fleet is gathering near Sullust - why not attack them there? Why draw them to Endor?

When the Rebel fleet realizes they've flown into a trap, I always wondered why they didn't immediately retreat back into Hyperspace. At first I thought maybe there were Interdictors nearby preventing this. But it's implied by Lando's exchange with Ackbar that the lure of destroying the Death Star and killing Palpatine is what's keeping them there. Even if Sheev was counting on this... why did he leak to the rebels the actual location of the shield generator?? Why not just lure them to some random building and kill them all there?

The only way I can figure is Sheev was worried the rebels would find out about Death Star II eventually and wanted to be one step ahead of them so he leaked the info to draw them to him. Still, it sure seems like it would've been smarter to wait until it was completed, and then launch an offensive against the rebels. It seems like they would never have found out about DSII if Sheev didn't tell them. Plus, it was real dumb to tell them where the shield generator was.

So yeah, I dunno. It's weird to see all of Palpatine's elaborate scheming culminate in... this. Anyone else think so?

 

The point is that a half-completed Death Star is seemingly vulnerable, which makes it an irresistible target. If it were completed, then it wouldn't be vulnerable. The Rebels would have no incentive to commit the bulk of their forces to a last-ditch attack on a battle station with no obvious weakness. They'd just stay underground and continue their guerrilla war, hopeless as it may be at that point, while the Empire gradually rooted them out over the course of years and years.

The Emperor just wants the whole thing to be over with once and for all. He doesn't want to waste any more time or resources stamping out the Rebellion when he could be doing better things. He's overconfident and he thinks his plan is foolproof, so for him there's no downside here. This is an easy way to take care of the problem all in one go.

Presumably, he leaks the actual location of the shield generator because he knows the Rebels will be able to tell if it's phony. He might as well just leak the real location to make everything seem as authentic and enticing as possible. It doesn't really matter to him, because he has no idea that the Rebels will be aided in their fight by a bunch of fuzzy three-foot-tall natives and will end up defeating an entire legion of his best troops.

By all rights, the Rebels should have failed, just as he predicted. There was absolutely nothing wrong with his plan on paper. The only thing he failed to predict was something intangible that couldn't be accounted for--at least not by someone without any faith in the human spirit.

 

He does have a time constraint. His primary objective was to convert Luke, and Luke's skill with the Force was improving quickly.

Personally, I think his plan regarding the rebels (not the part regarding Luke) was pretty good for the most part. I don't expect him to predict that the ewoks would see 3PO as a god and join the rebels. That was quite out of the blue. He prepared enough troops on the forest moon to deal with the small number of rebels (small enough to fit in that one imperial shuttle, the size of which he is familiar with).

 

I actually think these things will make a lot more sense after watching TROS...

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He wanted to crush the Rebellion in one fell swoop so telling them that (1) there’s a Death Star near Endor and (2) he is actually onboard the thing would be all the Rebels need to know in order to launch a massive assault. Make them think that this could be it, their big chance to crush the Empire.

Honestly, he messed up in two spectacular ways:

• Simply have two shield generators (one being a dud) and releasing the location of the dud generator so the ground forces waste time and lives trying to blow it up.

• Simply not killing both Luke and Vader when the former refused to submit. Vader had already proven to be weak against Luke, who has gone out of his way to say that he is a Jedi.

 

I can't concretely prove this, but I feel like Palpatine knew that Luke's close friends would be on the mission, and he wanted to use them to test Luke. The trap on Endor was set for Han and Leia specifically so that he could use them as leverage against Luke.

Actually, this is evidenced by his monologue in the throne room when he is taunting Luke, but he could very well have predicted this long before the Rebel mission to Endor actually took place.

Yes, Palpatine did mess up by relying on the competence of his men to protect the shield generator. I don't think that he predicted the Ewoks, as @lord_sidious_ pointed out, who got Luke's friends out of the trap. The Ewoks were one of two key components in the undoing of Palpatine's plan, the other being Luke's ability to bring his father back to the light side.

 

I would say that Palpatine was so overconfident that he believed he could take the risk. He did the same thing in Revenge of the Sith, in which he puts himself in grave danger fighting Mace Windu, when there was no need for it.

 

Absolutely this. He had been lucky for so long and losing didn’t enter his mind.

 

Sidious wants to destroy the entire Rebellion and covert Luke Skywalker to his side in one fell swoop. And the best way to do so is to practically gift-wrapped himself as a target since the entire Galactic Empire could only function with the Emperor alive. And to ensure this would not be a simple assassination attempt, the Emperor goes to a location that would require every last Rebel force there.

And what many people forget is that the Emperor could escape amidst the chaos. Remember, Luke had time to drag his dead-weight father from the Throne Room all the way to the Imperial Hangar, talk to him in his last moments, before dragging his armor into the shuttle and flying out at the very last second before the Death Star blows up. Sure, there was the Rebel fleets waiting to blow up any escaping Imperial ships but if anyone could escape through the blockade, it's the Emperor.

Really, the only real mistake that Sidious made was underestimating Luke's strong will to resist the temptation of the Dark Side... and Anakin's love for family. And it's quite poetic in a way because who else managed to derail Palpatine's plans, however temporary, on a frequent basis that she doesn't even realize it? Padmé Amidala, Luke's mother. She was always the one that Palpatine frequently underestimated in the Phantom Menace ("This is an unexpected move for her; it's too aggressive."), and she was the one who temporarily halted the vote for more clones with nothing more than a passionate, moving speech for the entire Senate ("Isn't it remarkable, that one can have all the power in the galaxy, and yet the words of a single senator, can sway the thoughts of millions?").

Ironic, isn't it?

 

He displayed the same arrogance as the Jedi did in the PT plus he had too much faith in his visions of the future. He underestimated the Ewoks like he did the Gungans and thought the dark side more powerful and final and that there was no turning back from it.

Though the op is right...maybe giving away the real location of the shield generator was a bit much..though the plan had to appear legitimate to the Rebels. If it was just some random bunker the Rebels wouldn't be as willing to risk anything since it'd be more obvious as a trap.

 

Upon rethinking, it’s possible that the whole ‘have two shield generators and reveal the dud one to the Rebels’ would have great risks. Spies could simply find out and inform them, causing the Rebels to hesitate about walking into an obvious trap.

 

I dunno, I thought it was a really good plan. The rebels looked like they were completely screwed. But you know, you can't repel plot armor of that magnitude!

 

The Emperor's plan would have worked if it weren't for the Ewoks.

It also seem that Sith Lords get distracted from their larger plans when directly engaged in fighting. Leia is able to escape Cloud City when Vader is otherwise occupied fighting Luke. The Emperor is focused on Vader and Luke instead of the larger battle around him during Endor.

 

At that point, killing both would've been a liability and a waste to him. He knew in a straightforward duel or something, Vader stood no chance against him. Based on his belief that pre-Mustafar Vader would have eventually been able to defeat him, though, the same could be said for Luke had he allowed him to continue to grow in the Force. If he was so adamant about being a Jedi, best to just kill him there so he wasn't a threat

He presumably also overheard Vader learning of Leia's existence, so he could very well have been planning to try to corrupt her next since he considered Luke a no-go at that point. The only thing he didn't expect was Anakin's redemption. Imo, ROTJ makes it clear that he doesn't understand Vader's soft spot for Luke, let alone that he was still capable of loving his son. I imagine that after Padme's death, Palpatine would've considered Vader completely emotionally dead and on his tight leash - a sentiment Vader himself also seemingly shared until the last minute ("It is too late for me")
(Hell, if we don't take the EU into account, it's quite possible based on Yoda's dialogue ("Once you start down the dark path, forever will it dominate your destiny") and the fact that only about 20 Jedi had ever left the Order, that redemption from the dark side is something that had never happened in recorded history before)

Damn, I get rambly. But anyway, in short, I think Palpatine would've just seen it as wasteful to kill Vader at that point and saw no possibility of betrayal to begin with, especially if he had considered using Vader again in a backup backup plan to corrupt Leia

 

Great point. Vader lost the duel with Luke. If that makes Luke Skywalker #1 in the universe Darth Vader is still #2. And if Luke's not going along with the Emperor's plan, then Vader is still #1. Vader would have been back to fighting shape in no time after the Emperor killed Luke. For the two Sith life would continue as it was until on day Vader was replaced by someone else or Vader replaced the Emperor.

What the Emperor really didn't expect was Vader to sacrifice himself. The Sith Master is counting on the apprentice wanting to usurp them. But that move has to be timed perfectly. If it fails the Sith Apprentice is ended by the master. And the apprentice has to kill the master in a way that doesn't also get them killed. But survival is the control for how the Sith relationship works.

The Emperor never saw Vader giving his own life to save Luke's.

 

And it was, which was a huge mistake by Palpatine. Risking himself was the only way the rebels could win, and he gave them that chance. This was the real mistake in the Endor trap.

I’ll make a comparison to a heads up poker match.

In a one on one match of Texas Hold’em, when your opponent is down to a very small amount, it’s worth forcing your opponent to risk all his chips at the start of the hand because he can only double his chips per hand, while you can potentially eliminate him altogether. For example: if you have 50,000 in chips, and your opponent only 500, your opponent will have to double up six times before he draws even with you. You can risk it four times rather safely. Even if you lose all four times, your opponent still only has 8000 to your 42,000.

Endor is different. Endor allows a player with 500 to beat an opponent with 50,000, all in one hand. It’s a foolish bet, regardless of odds.

Another comparison would a 4x space game. If your fleet, army, economy, resources, research, and technology is 100 times greater than your opponent, and you have possession of 100 times as many planets, why would you ever risk the game in one battle? Especially without all your forces present? Why would you risk the game with the death of a single unit? In Star Wars: Empire at War, if the rebellion conquers your capital, where the Emperor is always present, you instantly lose the game, no matter how many forces you have left, no matter how many other planets you control. Naturally, you want to avoid that battle. It’s the only way you can lose.

Palpatine should have made the rebellion beat all his fleets, while replacing them with the economic and industrial strength of the Empire, all his legions (not just one), while conscripting replacements from the vast Imperial population, and all the credits he could throw at them, before he let them have a shot at him. They never would have been able to do it.

Against a conventional opponent, you can defeat them the way I described above, the long way, using all your forces. Conventional forces can be starved. Conventional armies surrender when a conventional victory becomes impossible. Insurgencies, on the other hand, avoid your forces. They survive. They come back. Some of them will never surrender. The longer they survive, the more dangerous they become politically. They gain support. Will to fight them erodes. Because of this, it is best to defeat an insurgency in one swift stroke and avoid letting it continually escape and survive for years and years. However, you don’t risk The Emperor in order to do it. You figure out some other way to trap them.

 

I always thought the Emperor was trolling/lying to Luke by saying killing him would turn Luke to the Dark Side. It put Luke in an impossible position. Killing Sheev was just doing what Obi Wan and Yoda told him to do. And it would save the galaxy. And Vader killed him and turned back to the light.

 

I like your poker analogy. Palpatine needed to make the bait in his trap so tempting the Rebel would throw all in. He wanted the different rebellions to band together in a single large scale show of force. He wanted to draw them out so in one battle he could set them back to zero. A new Death Star wasn't enough. He needed to be there himself. I'd say part of that was to make the showdown with Luke happen, but I'm not sure Palpatine knew that was also going to happen.

But he needed to risk himself to get the Rebels there at that moment. They could have waited or shown up earlier. His personal appearance made the mission even more vital for the rebels and gave them even less time.

 

Vader killed the Emperor in the service of defending the life of another person who was in immediate danger from him. He didn't strike him down in anger thinking he was unarmed, which is what the Emperor was trying to goad Luke into doing. That would have turned Luke to the dark side.

The immorality of striking down defenseless opponents is a major theme of the series. Luke's refusal to do just that is literally what causes Vader to turn back to the light.

 

I don't think TRYING would have turned Luke, because that's exactly what he did. He did turn on his lightsaber and was going to strike at Palpatine, only Vader blocked him, which was exactly what he expected. Normally, maybe even trying to kill an unarmed opponent would have been enough to turn someone to the dark side, but it didn't work with Luke. If Luke was strong-willed enough not to kill Vader even at the peak of his anger, he probably would have stayed away from the dark side even after killing Palps. Vader might have continued to fight Luke, and Luke would probably have defeated him without killing him. Then Luke may still have been able to save Vader. And if Luke had succeeded in striking down unarmed Palpatine then what good would it have done Palpatine dead? The Emperor would never have sacrificed himself just so that Luke could turn. He would have wanted to profit from Luke's turn. Sacrifice Vader, sure, but certainly not himself.

 

If Luke had struck down Palps and not lost himself to the Dark side, I expect he'd still feel dark repercussions of his act, and probably end up exiling himself from civilization, ending up as a lonely bitter hermit on a lost world.

Hey, wait a minute!

 

I doubt just trying would be enough in any event.
Mace tried to kill unarmed Palpatine and he did not turn.
Anakin tried and did kill unarmed Dooku and he did not turn.

Palpatine was goading Luke to get angry and attack him. Which Luke eventually did and Vader stepped in, exactly as Palpatine had planned.
After that, Luke and Vader would fight and if Vader killed Luke, Palpatine would keep Vader. If Luke won and killed Vader, he would turn and now be Palpatine's new slave.
I doubt that Luke could have killed either Palpatine or Vader in anger and NOT turn.
The scene makes no sense then. And Palpatine's plan becomes stupid if Luke could kill in hate and not turn.
He would not want to die himself, as you said, and if Luke could kill Vader and still not turn. Then Palpatine has lost his servant and gained nothing.

Bye for now.
Old Stoneface

 

IMO, Palp's plan was base on his foresight, which he took great pride in. "All is proceeding as I have foreseen." But it looked to me like he misinterpreted his visions and was led astray by them. Kind of like the ancient king who wanted a prophecy of how a battle would turn out and the oracle told him, "There will be a great victory" and failed to specify that it was the king's foe who would win the victory.

 

We always say Palpatine was over-confident, but I think he had every reason to be. The odds that the rebels would overrun the shield generator, defeat his fleet, and destroy the Death Star were pretty much...zero. The rebels could use hit-and-run tactics to nibble away at the Empire in the fringe sectors, but once caught out in an open battle they would've been dead meat. The fact that this didn't happen...well, let's just say the Force was very strong with the rebels that day.

You know while we're on this topic, why don't we look at the Rebel plan? What did they need in order to kill the Death Star? The commando team to take out the shield generator, and a bunch of starfighters to hit the core. What's the rest of the fleet doing there? The big valuable rebel capital ships aren't contributing anything to the attack, so why risk them in a fight?