Amph The 2024 Box Office Blood Replenishment

Looking at the list, I'm betting one of the top of the year ends up being an animated sequel: Inside Out 2, Kung Fu Panda 4, or Despicable Me 4.

I don't think Furiosa justifies its budget, and I don't think Dune 2 breaks $600 million.

 

I'm sort of going on how well the Netflix series did (earning Jack Black an Emmy, and a seriously heartfelt speech I might add), compared to everything else and how it's primed for a break-out after a break from feature films. But you're correct, even The Rise of Gru was just shy of $1bn so that has to be the favorite.

 

The "stamp of quality" is the buckets of money spent on marketing a theatrical film.

I think their audience is quickly learning that entertainment at the push of a button can be found a vast variety of "quality" levels.

What the studios hope is that people who were fed the marketing blitz for the theatrical run, but missed it in theaters for whatever reason, will rediscover it in physical or VOD or affect their subscription choices for streaming.

But is there that much bias in people brains that "oh, that was in theaters, it must be good"...or is it the glut of commercials and ads everywhere you look?

I'd be real curious if it were ever possible to compare viewing statistics for a big theater run like Top Gun: Maverick to something like Rebel Moon which had a great deal of marketing for a streaming exclusive...if you take the revenue out, and could justify an average number of individuals per stream and compared them side by side to ticket sales...

The problem, of course, is that Rebel Moon will never approach the revenue of a film in a theatrical run...I doubt Netflix can justify with any hard numbers the number of subscriptions maintained for that show (they could probably do additions if they calculate new accounts that play it within 24 hours or so.)

In the end, they cap the story with a positive spin, because there is no alternative...they cannot charge the subscription fees they would require to get revenue parity between VOD/Streaming and a theatrical run. The premium on the theater experience is rooted in the social zeitgeist.

The problem lies in how quickly the studios dump to the streaming platforms to entice or hold onto subs.

Example: I missed The Creator in the theater by 2 days. I was bummed, but knew it would be on streaming before long. Low and behold, saw it on Hulu at my sister's last week over the holiday. Still did not watch it. I know where it is, I will get to it when I am ready. I won't subscribe to Hulu. The "limited engagement" of the theatrical experience is lost. It is just one more title in backlog that goes beyond my ability to recall. What good did that theatrical run do them? That "stamp of quality" might get someone with a streaming service to add it to a watchlist.

They have to stop behaving like the theater is the brief first step of a rapidly moving media rollout, because people will adapt to their budgets and their preferences.
Society is quickly losing the "shared experience" element that new film releases used to carry. Someone can spend 30 seconds on social media and glean enough detail to be ready for the watercooler...if they don't work from home.

The theatrical experience has to be worth the price. The studios are working furiously to convince us that a little patience can reduce that price and make the experience a private one...it all stacks against their prime method of earning a living. They have to incentivize getting off the couch and going to the show...and they don't want to do that.

The industry is changing forever...they are just putting a brave face on the status quo for now.

 

Wonka is going to be the first movie in 5 months to crack 400 million worldwide. 400 is the new billion!

 

I think it's even worse with television now. Occasionally we'll get stuff like Squid Game or Severance which people will excitedly talk about for a little while before it fades, but unless you actually sit down with another person to watch a show it seems unlikely they've seen it. Most conversations about TV "in real life" I have with people are "Have you seen this one?" "No." "Oh. Well, it's good." "Have you seen this one?" "No." "It's good." Not much in the way of "event" series or movie releases. At least with TV it might get better again once the streaming services consolidate and the underperformers are culled... and the prices are raised beyond the means of anyone under 60 years old.

 

The first low budget schlock horror movie of 2024 from Blumhouse - Night Swim - is out. It doesn't look like it's going to be spectacularly profitable... It looks like it should have been made for $5 million instead of $15 million.

 

Could Sydney Sweeney new BO appeal and Anastasia Steele stans, i mean, Dakota Johnson stans led Madam Web to be a BO unexpected hit?

 

LOL that Anyone but You is already outperforming Aquaman 2 on a daily basis. Anyone But You is indeed terrible but reasonably entertaining by romcom standards. It's kind of like the $5 million horror movie that has a 23% RT score and earns 20 times its budget at the box office. Not quite as it cost $25 million to make, but if it keeps piling up $9 million weekends it will do fine.

 

Thinking about Flopfest 2024. As @The2ndQuest likes to remind us, all of the failings of 2023 are already hard-baked into 2024, and professional projections seem optimistic that this year will be even worse than last year at least at the U.S. box office if not worldwide.

A test case is the A Quiet Place franchise. So far it has followed the standard traditional sequel trajectory with escalating production and marketing costs pitted against declining box office. The first movie did $340 million worldwide against a $17 million budget, making it one of the most profitable movies of the prepandemic peak.

The sequel cost 3.5x more to make and earned slightly less worldwide, but still hugely profitable, earning 5x its budget.

The new prequel, with a June 28 gives it a heart of summer release, though it was moved out of the seasonal pole position in March. Its title "A Quiet Place Day One" suggests that it will need a much bigger effects budget. However, it is likely saving by hiring a lower rent cast, so not sure where it comes out on cost. Summer movies also need heavier marketing budgets.

I'd assume expectations must be that it will earn less than $300 million worldwide, so it might just barely support a $100 million budget. holding the line at the $61 million cost of the sequel would be a lot better.

I'd definitely go see this. Watching indestructible blind monsters eat everybody has its appeal.

 

Excluding 2020 (obviously) this is the worst release schedule I've seen for movies since at least 2009. I'm really excited for Deadpool and Dune, and intrigued by the new Godzilla and LOTR anime, but besides that, I'll have to hope trailers get me to go to some of these. I enjoyed the one for Argylle for example.

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom is officially the highest grossing DC movie of 2023!

 

The little microbudgeted horror movies will do well of course. Dune will do relatively well as there is almost nothing else on the calendar worth seeing. I can't guess what will be the number one movie of the year. It could be Deadpool 3 for all I know, something that potentially could make $700 million. There might be no billion dollar movies this year.

 

I feel like most of the budget went to getting Wyatt Russell and Kerry Condon and, admittedly, if they weren't in the movie, it would be utterly without merit. As it is, they give good performances, but the movie is dull, kind of lifeless and not scary at all. It has made its budget back already, but I think it may have kind of crapped out; I went to see it tonight and I was the only person in the 200 seat theater. And it's been out for five days. I think it's basically done. It's too cheesy for people looking for a serious slow-burn, but it has too much seriousness and is too slow for people who want a fun, intense ride. And, like I say, it's not scary, so I don't know that anybody's going to be recommending it to their friends. I anticipate that it will massively drop this weekend.

 

I am actually a little shocked to learn the haunted pool movie was as self-serious as its advertising campaign suggested and… also I can’t believe somebody made a haunted pool movie and was like “Time for a self-serious film and advertising campaign.” That’s some Death Bed levels of botching the assignment.

 

All Night Swim needs to jump start its second weekend are a few "It's the Number One Film on 2024!" tv spots.

Meanwhile, Anyone But You is the Number One Movie of yesterday. It made $6 million its first weekend, $9 million its second weekend, and $10 million its third weekend which seems unusual. It's the Titanic of ****** B talent romcoms.

 

I have to say I thought the Godzilla/Kong trailer was the worst I've seen for a 2024 movie. Maybe the movie itself has some entertainment value, but the trailer hides it expertly. Maybe it will get some extra ticket sales from goodwill toward Minus One, but if I had to pick the worst movie of 2024 based on the trailers I've seen so far, that would be it.

Mean Girls upgraded to a $30-$35 million MLK weekend prediction. It has ok reviews, not great, mostly not terrible. The music numbers are supposedly well done, and the Broadway musical was successful so it's probably not going to be a disaster. Budget is reported at $36 million. Technically it needs to get close to $100 million for theatrical profitability, which could be a bit of a stretch.

The Beekeeper looks like a great rental for a slow weekend a few short weeks from now.