ST Episode IX Box Office Discussion

It's going to be years before a proper postmortem is done, but I think all three ST movies missed the mark in their own ways (TFA for not setting the table for anything new, TLJ for taking every plot thread into a nosedive, and TROS for pulling a hack move in bringing Palpatine back for conflict).

Where JJ initially left Star Wars with TFA was salvageable, but Rian really took TLJ in a direction that killed interest for a lot of people. TROS just failed to bring people back. Truth is, because of TLJ, there were no real stakes in TROS and it's just a fight to get back to the status quo from 30 years prior, which isn't very exciting.

WWE was a "canary in the coal mine" for corporatized entertainment, even going back 20 years to when they went public. They lost their soul the second they tried to go mainstream and yeah, WrestleMania is a great attraction (much like the Saga movies are a great attraction), but with a ton of collateral damage burned around in its wake.

 

And you are gonna listen to a random reddit user or youtuber over Forbes. Alright. I think we are done here.

 

Comparing Marvel to Star Wars is comparing apples and oranges. They’re not the same.

And I disagree on TLJ — it left the stakes higher than ever, but TROS couldn’t bring it home.

 

The notion that TLJ didn’t leave TROS anywhere to go is soooooo lazy and just flat out wrong. It just shows that TFA set this trilogy up as a OT reboot, so when TLJ didn’t end like one would have expected, people felt there was no where to go. Rian took it in a direction with endless possible follow ups. I guess people really did want this to just be the OT with fresh paint. Sad

 

You say that yet absolutely nowhere has there ever been any mention of any idea of plot point that anyone on this or any other board came up with as a decent follow-up idea or story that could have done a better job as a sequel to TLJ.

 

But, then again, back in 2015 TFA was marketed as begining of news adventures; in 2019 TROS was marketed as ENDING of a history started 40 years ago.
Clearly Disney/Lucasfilm never knew how to sell the ST. Heck, apparently they had no idea what story they were telling. That drove away new or casuals viewers.
Also Disney made Star Wars movies lose that SPECIAL EVENT status and that's one of the causes of declining BO returns.
Personally, i would not have a problem if the next movie wait 5 years to hit theaters.

 

It is, actually. In the end now it feels as if the new characters were sacrificed in order to pander to OT nostalgia once again.
And I remember last monday reading predictions that TROS would be a 1 billion after it's fourth week end for sure. well that didn't happen. It is really crawling there now, disappointing.

 

Same. I actually think 2022 is too soon. If they had trouble making Star Wars "Saga" movies every 2 years, 1 more year isn't going to help. They need significant development time. Maybe they've already started that, but given their track record so far, I'm not optimistic about them doing something new with the franchise at all.

 

Here is what I do predict. No matter what they do in future Star Wars films you are gonna have some fans who don't like it. I know I know taking a big chance in predicting this

 

100% correct The Skywalker Saga films have always delivered domestically but not Internationally as the MCU takes for granted - if the International total for TROS ran like the MCU average of 65% international for the last 8 movies the TROS would be on right now $1,366,000,000 and we wouldn't be talking of any box office failings what so ever , Star Wars suffers because it's not big in Asia and China in particular.

The Lion King and Aladdin has to be one of the biggest examples of the domestic vs international vs TROS ( Very Similar RT scores )

The Lion King: RT 53% - Audience 88%
Domestic (32.8%)
$543,638,043
International (67.2%)
$1,113,305,351
Worldwide
$1,656,943,394

Aladdin: RT 57% - Audience 94%
Domestic (33.8%)
$355,559,216
International (66.2%)
$695,134,737
Worldwide
$1,050,693,953

 

What?!? There has been numerous post and fics written about where to go post TLJ. Hell I think there are entire threads for it. Not sure what “ever on this board” your are talking about.

 

Yeah. We can talk amongst ourselves that Star Wars doesn’t need the big Asian markets like China, that it can rely on domestic and what not.


But the absolute bottom line is that Disney heads want Star Wars to get that additional China/Asian box office.

The Sequel Trilogy turned out to be a wash as far as Chinese audiences are concerned. But you just know Disney is and should take pains that the next Star Wars offer can resonate and get that coveted China market.

Disney is not just gonna be content that a franchise like Fast and Furious can get to a billion using China but Star Wars can’t.

 

But China has already made up its mind. I don't see any way that they are going to suddenly attract the Chinese audience to SW. It's not like it's doing "okay" in China. It's non-existent in China. Outside of having a completely Chinese cast (or mostly) how are they going to change that?

But TROS dropped in ALL markets.

 

Sure I am sure they would love that. But how is the question. 4 words. Jackie Chan next Jedi.

 

Maybe if Star Wars featured worlds more similar to our real world, it would help in China.

I also remember reading that they disliked the effectiveness of the leadership of the First Order and the Resistance.

Maybe they would love a Thrawn-like character ?

 

Right now Disney wants that alternating Christmas spot with Avatar sequels/new Star Wars films in December, from 2021 and up.

December 2020 is their breather year.


Stuff like the MCU films have already claimed the big May-summer-kickoff release dates

 

Hey remember when Bond 25 and Wonder Woman 2 were both supposed to come out last November? I 'member. Wonder what that world would have been like.

 

Maybe part of their High Republic era they could have another civilization, an ancient one, outside and far removed from the OR, on the outer edges of the galaxy. Play up some of the real-world earth history (east v west), in a GFFA twist sort a way. I mean, SW was always a blend between the two, so maybe dig into that a bit. Like maybe there's rift that makes traveling to and from almost impossible, or rare, but trade does happen. (Hell maybe its even in the UR who knows) Maybe...even have the origins of the Force arise from this place, and this more ancient civilization, and have it grow to the OR.

Just tossing out ideas. I think you can appeal to China, without having to make SW Transformers movies.

 

Sorry, B&W are talentless hacks who got lucky, then screwed the pooch. Their pilot was garbage and would normally have caused the network to say "no thanks" but for some reason HBO allowed them to reshoot it. After the "red wedding" the show dropped in quality. Those two idiots dropped entire plot points and hacked the final two books so badly they pissed off GRRM and then gave us that mess called seasons 5-8. They probably showed LFL just how arrogant they are and LFL decided yeah, no thanks. Let them take Netflix's cash.

 

I would be surprised if TROS makes $1.333 billion. That's how much TLJ made. But I don't doubt that it will make $1 billion. Still, Disney being Disney will be disappointed that it did not equal or surpass TLJ's box office totals, and that will not bode well for Kathleen Kennedy. Also, TROS is not as divisive as TLJ, but its 50% reception amongst critics does not help people go and see it. Still, I went to see Frozen II again last night. As my friend and I were waiting, we watched the last half of TROS. I gotta say the performances are good and the music is even better. John Williams went all out in the best job he's done since ROTS. I liked how he used some old themes and expanded others. He made Palpatine's theme even more chilling than it has ever been. Despite how Palpatine is dumb and not as smart as he was in the PT and CT, which is saying something, it's amusing how Ian McDiarmid is doing so well in the role and making it seem better than it was written. I think Kasdan should have been the co-writer. He helped make TFA great. If he had co-written TLJ and TROS, they would have been better, I think. But this box office climb seems slow. The fact that TFA is literally the best film in the trilogy and both TLJ and TROS have successively less impressive box office totals will not bode well. Kenneyd really ought to retire and be replaced with someone who understands Star Wars. Yet I will say that TFA deserves that $2 billion it earned. It was fun to watch. It's arguably the only sequel film that's better than any of the prequel films in my view. It was not the best story of all time, but it was historic insofar as it was the first Star Wars film since ROTJ that truly got people excited. I think Rogue One is the best Star Wars film since 1983, but TFA is more fun than the prequels. TLJ and TROS are beautiful visually, but I have never been more vexed by SW films than those two. I can only imagine that Daisy Ridley was like, "I'm here for the paycheck. These stories suck." She even laughed at the ending of TROS in an interview. I kid you not. And it was an uncomfortable laugh at that.

 

Eh I never said they were talented or a good choice lol. I was just stating directors are going to leave due to not wanting to try a please this fan base. I didn’t want B&W either fwiw. Them and Feige I don’t want anywhere near SW.

 

This is very true, and it's sad to see so many people scrambling to rewrite history now that they have been proven wrong. Five weeks ago I made a bold prediction that TROS' WW box office would be <1b. Most people called me crazy or a troll. But I was very serious with my prediction, and it turns out that while I've probably slightly underestimated its performance, I was much, much closer than the majority consensus.

So now that people will hopefully take me seriously (because I've proven to have more objectively accurate judgments than most in this thread), let me remind everyone which indicators I saw that informed my prediction. 1) The TROS marketing campaign was lackluster compared to TFA and TLJ, 2) There was no "hook" comparable to Ford or Hamill, 3) Overall interest in the franchise was down, 4) The franchise has become increasingly front loaded, which correlates to declining box offices increasingly dependent on the "hardcore" fans.

Now, please listen to me when I say that TLJ absolutely played a major role in TROS' under performance. It was not the movie most were expecting when the went to see Star Wars. It is not a happy, upbeat film. It has no major lightsaber duel. It fails to deliver on TFA's cliffhangers. It absolutely contributed to declining interest in the franchise. The extent of that contribution is of course up for debate, but its existence should not be.

 

Plenty of people have. Hell i've even said ways. How about a third threat from the Outer Rim where Snoke came from comes out. Make it a long lost tribe of the Sith thing and the FO and REbels have to team up to destroy them thus you provide a redemption arc for Kylo as he was being manipulated to weaken the Republic so this third force could come in and take over.

 

LOL, in other words you big meanie negative poop heads, I’m going to give an increasingly narrow set of terms that hedges you into the specific answer I want so I can claim Winners!

 

Honestly both have to be taken into account. TLJ-forget about everything else in the film for a minute-it didn’t end on a cliffhanger or create a compelling reason for audiences to want to see what happens next ASAP. That is not a formula for getting butts in seats for the sequel.