Discussion The Mandalorian and Grogu Box Office Thread - Releasing May 22, 2026

GTA VI wll be release on the weekend of release of the Mando movie...

 

Call me crazy but I'm almost certain that TM&G will make more at the Box Office than GTA VI

 

Unless they show GTA VI at Cinemas

 

Huge news that gives both The Mandalorian and Grogu and Starfighter some major breathing room: Both Avengers films have been pushed to December 2026 and 2027, respectively.

https://variety.com/2025/film/news/avengers-delayed-doomsday-secret-wars-december-1236407485/

 

I'm happy with that. Glad that Star Wars will have free reign of May instead of competing with Marvel Studios trying to pull a Weekend at Bernie's with the aged bodies of Patrick Stewart and Ian McKellan.

 

Just as long as Marvel Studios keeps Patrick Stewart out of their writing room (looking at you seasons 1 and 2 of Picard) the movies will be delightfully devilish hoo hoo

 

This film may move to early May now. Maybe.

 

I definitely would have preferred for Disney to move both films to the start of May, but I think they're locked in on the Memorial Day weekends because of "tradition." The Mandalorian and Grogu should be fine as is. The next big studio film won't be until 3 weeks later with Spielberg's original UFO film on June 12th, followed by Toy Story 5 the next week on June 19th.

The issue in 2027 for Starfighter is that Beyond the Spider-Verse releases the very next weekend, followed by the How to Train Your Dragon sequel the weekend after that. It's possible both films could shift their dates, of course.

 

No one seems to care (yet) but the live-action Masters of the Universe is finally coming out on June 5th next year. With Travis Knight at the helm, I'm hoping for a bloody good film at least.

 

They are expecting a record breaking Memorial Day weekend now with openings for Lilo and Stitch, MI 8: Reckoning + great holds for Final Destination Bloodlines and Sinners. Which can only be good for Mandalorian film as well. People using that weekend to kick start the summer season. Like it was in the old days, before Marvel took that early May slot.

I feel like both Mandalorian and Starfighter belongs in the summer line up, and December is now starting seriously to fill up with big tentpole films, in the next 3, 4 years. I do expect Warner Bros to move Dune 3 for Avengers Doomsday though.

 

As expected, Lilo and Stitch set a new Memorial Day weekend record with a $183 million domestic. I don't expect The Mandalorian and Grogu to surpass it, but hopefully it lands somewhere around $150 million when it releases?

And as long as Starfighter performs better than the Solo $103 million weekend, that should be enough to keep Disney and Lucasfilm from having another panic over their theatrical plans.

 

That'll heavily depend on Starfighter's budget.

 

Realistic OW for this one: $ 110 - 135 mill range. A lot can happen before May 2026 though. Marketing has not even started and no trailers.