PT Could the Separatists have won the war if Palpatine wasn't manipulating them?

I have heard many times that Palpatine intentionally hindered the Separatist forces to drag out the war, and that without that, the CIS could have won. Is this true?

 

Well, Palpatine started the war, the CIS wouldn't have existed without Dooku, and Grievous who was basically created by Palpatine and Dooku, there also wouldn't have been a ready made Republic army at the ready.

But lets say that the war started without those conditions, it all comes down to how long the Republic could delay the CIS with next to no military except for the Judiciary forces and some independent sector militaries.

If they could delay them long enough to build a military, sure the Republic wins, but they wouldn't have that amount of time.

The Separatists would probably come close to winning but eventually the wheels would have turned on them.

 

What he said!

 

Were the Separatists good or bad?

 

Palpitine created the Separatists as a means to create a conflict to overwhelm the Jedi.

While there was certainly some level of discord in the GFFA , the organized Sep movement was setup and manipulated by Palp from the very start.

 

Assuming Palpatine's plan had simply been to start the war then sit back munching popcorn (so everything up to the end of AOTC still happened but then he retired/disappeared) then the war could probably have gone either way. The CIS had numbers on their side and a lack of scruples about using weapons the Republic would not, and they did have some genuinely talented commanders and tacticians. On the other hand, outside of Dooku they didn't really have an answer to the Jedi and the Force, which without Palpatine's meddling would probably have been much more useful and decisive.
They could have won but I think that without Palpatine the advantage would have been with the Republic though it would not be a steamrolling at all.

 

At the end of the day, the Jedi weren't the immortal gods that people believed them to be, they died in battle before order 66 and the ultimate betrayal.

Even without Palpatine on one side and Dooku on the other side, the Jedi probably would have been decimated the longer the war went on.

 

But without a Sith Lord stoking the greed of the cowardly Separatist Council into courage, groups like the Trade Federation, Corporate Alliance, and Techno Union never would have been brave enough to join forces and pool their vast fortunes to bankroll a military strong enough to defy the sovereignty of the Republic and Jedi.

Two Jedi at Naboo were almost enough to make the Trade Federation abandon the blockade and make terms. It's only because of Palpatine that the Separatists get over their fear and stop seeing the Jedi as immortal gods. No Palpatine, no war at all.

 

Palpatine gave the Separatists leadership, organization, belief they could win and fanning the flames of greed. I agree that the groups were all too cowardly and/or self-interested to pull off such a bold move. They didn’t unite for preservation or patriotism or nationalism, but rather under greed.

And while he invoked bravery and organization into the Separatists he also invoked fear and discord into the Republic. It shows how much organizations are predicated on belief in the system. Creating doubt in the system weakens it as seen by Palpatine coaxing Amidala about the corruption and futility of their political system.

By bolstering the beliefs of Separatists and weakening the beliefs of the Republic Palpatine tilted the odds in favor of the Separatists. This has to happen so the Republic becomes both fearful and desperate. That is what allows the Republic to buckle on democracy and agree to give away democratic freedom to create the Army of the Republic and to give emergency powers to Palpatine. Lucas wanted to show how historically democracies become dictatorships. Fear and uncertainty, sometimes deliberately created, leads to people to willingly giving away their freedom.

 

Without Palpatine/Dooku the Republic and Separatists would of engaged more peacefully with eachother and not all out war so id believe there'd be no victors, rather a resolution where both parties could unanimously come to


~Refer to pursuit of peace episodes of TCW

Padme and Mina Bontari were ready to extend an olive branch to eachother, and when Mina Bontari brought the issue to the Separatist council (senate? idk what they called it) they all agreed as well. But as we all know palps/dooku killed Mina, pinned it on republic spies or whatnot and again fighting ensued.

 

To be fair, those two Jedi were definitely not your average Jedi.

Many sources(now non-canon) stated that the droids numbered in at least the billions while the clones numbered in the single digit millions(+~10,000 Jedi).

Now, this numerical disparity would not be so bad if Jedi powers were not hindered by PIS(seriously, Jedi precognition could have stopped several Jedi from dying, and it doesn't even have to come from the Jedi himself, but another powerful Jedi. So far, from what I've seen, Jedi precognition only works when the plot demands it). There are also several times where the Jedi could have just used the Force to win fights but don't(again, PIS), and even your average Jedi supposedly has the ability to fight faster than the eye can see. But, as you can see, Jedi ARE hindered by PIS almost all the time.

So it's billions-trillions of Battle Droids vs a couple million clones + ~10,000 Jedi. They'd need to destroy thousands of droids for every one clone(or Jedi) killed. You clearly do not see that happen in TCW tv show(with clones not even taking out 4 droids before dying), but the 2003 one makes the conflict more believable(watch how many droids the clones and Jedi cut down). So, if it wasn't for PIS, the CIS would have won by a landslide due to the sheer numbers alone.

 

That's what I had thought. I heard somewhere (I'm not sure if it's a true though) that the CIS had only used like 1/5th of their forces on Geonosis so that Palpatine could ensure a Republic victory.

Also imo the Republic only having clones in the couple of millions sounds off (not saying it's not true, but just that it doesn't make sense for it to be that low), especially for a galactic scale war. The USA, for example, has about 1 million troops, and thats only a small fraction of one planet. The Republic, however, is made of thousands of Star systems, and at least a million planets.

 

You're right. It doesn't make any sense at all, but that's what the sources said and it's heavily implied from TCW Season 3, Episode 11's beginning Senate talk. The Kaminoan senator wants the Republic to order an additional 5 million clone troopers, so it's safe to assume that clone numbers were not even close to 20 million. I think it's because most writers aren't military nuts or strategists or tacticians so that's why the military stuff from Star Wars makes no sense tbh.

 

I've heard somewhere that at one point (not sure if it was from a comic, show, or other book) that apparently someone referred to the clones as units instead of troops? And that maybe they mean like a battalion or something, and it was calculated that it would be like 500 something million clones overall, but I'm not sure how true that is. If they only had like 20 million troops total, that would only be like 20 clones per planet.....someone at LFL messed up.

 

Yeah they messed up big time. Perhaps(and this is just perhaps) these numbers would be more believable IF the Jedi and clones fought like they should but like I said they clearly don't. The incredibly helpful Jedi powers only work and are used when the plot demands it, and if every clone was at least half as good as Jango/Boba Fett(which they should be since they are literally clones of the former and have been trained from birth just like him) the entire conflict would be much more believable.

 

The war was an orchestrated sham-from beginning to end though real people died and real world's were ravaged it wasn't a "natural" conflict in that both sides acted in the most strategic or always sensible course. Palpatine always aimed for the republic to win-and any advantages the CIS had Palpatine would seek to subvert and obviate.

 

The "200,000 units" (plus a million more on the way) figure is in the movie, but the novelization of the movie has Mace ask Obi-Wan if that means the number of individual clone warriors, and Obi-Wan says yes.

 

......so in the beginning of a galactic war, they started with 200,000 troops?

 

Yup. Very shortly into the war, it went up to 1,200,000 troops - but we don't know how quickly it went up after that.

 

I doubt the Separatists would have ever won the war. The war perhaps could of still happened without Palpatine, he just tempted them and they did their part by choice.
But I think they were always going to be fighting a futile battle. Lucas has commented on the inferiority of the droid armies to real soldiers. The stormtroopers in the OT are quite symbolic of the unending resources and reach of the Empire, which was once the Republic afterall.
The droid armies were always just a temporary tool, but yeah it is a little paradoxical knowing both sides were all just fighting against their own leader.

 

If Palpatine (and the Sith) didn't exist, but the separatist tensions still continued the same way (debateable) then there would not have been a Clone Army and the Separatists would have successfully declared independence without Republic interference (since they had no military).

 

I had a similar thought when I posted, but I think the question assumes the occurrence of an actual war.

Would the Separatists be happy just to leave the Republic, without a conflict? Or attack the Republic like they planned to in AOTC?
As it plays out; the Republic is reluctant to let them leave by choice, possibly even flat out refusing them the right. The Separatists plan to attack the Republic to make their own demands by force, then the Jedi/Republic invade Geonosis in response to the threat on the Jedi and Republic and the war begins.

 

The Separatists don't plan to attack the Republic in AOTC. They say that with the Droid Armies that they'll have an unstoppable military, and the Senate will be forced to agree to their demands for independence.

 

That's debatable, it seems implied that they are.
The Republic make the first move to initiate war by sending troops there. But judging by the conversation between Dooku and the potential Separatist leaders that Obi-Wan witnesses, and Obi-Wan's report on this sent to Coruscant... the Jedi are certainly under the impression that this droid army isn't just for intimidation. Thanks to Dooku's powers of persuasion it seems the Separatists plan to actually use it. I don't see much reason to think they wouldn't.
"The Jedi will be overwhelmed. The Republic will agree to any demands we make." That sounds like they plan to overpower the Republic by force, not just say "Look at our army, let us leave".
I do think the Republic should have let them have independence without this though. It seems the Republic don't want any secession to happen at all.

 

Ya, I'm gonna go with that particular line in the novel being non-canon, as it clearly contradicts the "galactic, full-scale war" idea.