"The war has begun."

This line always makes me wonder exactly how long the Clone Wars had been in planning. We know that the war was meant to happen, by Sidious, but I am quite curious as to how Sidious knew it would come about. Of course, the creation of the Separatist movement had to take place, in order for there to be two sides, but the war began on Geonosis. It began as a rescue attempt by the Jedi to save Obi-Wan, who wouldn't have even been on the planet, had he not followed Jango there. So, to get to the point, did Sidious know Obi-Wan was going to search for clues at Kamino, and later Geonosis? Surely Sidious must have known that the war would begin at Geonosis, as we can infer from Dooku's progress report at the end of AotC. But there would have been no confrontation on Geonosis if Obi-Wan hadn't been searching for clues into the creation of the clone army. Did Sidious purposefully suggest Obi-Wan and Anakin as the Jedi to keep Padmé safe, so that Obi-Wan would be present at the second assassination attempt, present at Zam's death, which led him to Dexter, to the archives, to Kamino, and finally to Geonosis? It seems Obi-Wan was the individual for which the war was begun, but how much planning had Sidious done to get him to his destination: imprisonment on Geonosis?

 

The in universe answer is that Palpatine foresaw the future through the Force. He anticipated the Jedi's weakness in the Force, he exploited that weakness to create the clone army through his false representations as Sifo-Dyas (and by using the Jedi Dooku), and then manipulated the weakminded Gunray and others into feeling shafted by the Republic. Everything came to a head in AotC. When Kenobi followed Jango to Geonosis it was time for Palpatine to play the cards and he used Jar Jar to get the vote in the Senate. Palpatine and Dooku knew the war would start on Geonosis from the moment Kenobi survived his fight on Kamino. They planned and executed accordingly.

Also, the plot to assassinate Amidala was to consolidate the pro-military movement in the Senate. Seeing a pacifist like Amidala killed in an explosion or assassinated in her bedroom would have galvanized the pro-military supporters in the Senate and would have shaken the remaining pacifists to their core. If the Separatists, or the disgruntled miners as Mace puts it, could be so bold as to assassinate a respected pacifist like Amidala, then the remaining pacifists could not help but wonder what lengths the Separatists would go to in order to achieve their ends. This would help sway them over to the pro-military side. With her death, the galaxy would have been pushed ever more closely to the precipice of civil war.

The out universe answer is that Lucas wrote it that way for simplicity and convenience of the viewers.

 

So Sidious was actually intending for Amidala to be killed? Or did he know that the attempts would fail? After all, if he could really see so far into the future with the Force, wouldn't he have seen that Padmé would play a vital role in luring Anakin to the dark side?

 

Well, I see it as "eliminating the icon"; if you assassinate the well-known person, then all of those who support them willw ant to get back at those responsible. This would cause the Senate to favor Palpatine, and thus allow him to blame the Separatists, who were under the thumb of his alter-ego.

 

Well, we only know the role that Amidala eventually played in twisting Anakin into Darth Vader. Palpatine was well aware of Anakin's attachments to his mother and also his resentment of the Jedi Council. Palpatine could have, and likely would have, used those insights to his advantage if necessary. The brilliance of Palpatine lay in his ability to adapt to the unforeseen as well as the foreseen. Did Palpatine foresee Anakin's "complications" on Mustafar? If so, why did he send him there? He would have found another way to tempt Anakin over to the dark side regardless of whether Amidala survived. Heck, he might have exploited her death in a way to convince Anakin of the dark side's powers.

 

It's true that the spark that ignited the Clone Wars happened by accident with the situation involving Obi-Wan being captured on Geonosis. Considering Palpatine always planned for there to be a war he probably originally envisaged it happening a bit later, at a time of his choosing. War was on the cards from the beginning of AOTC with Palpatine asking "Do you really think it will come to war?" and claiming that his negotiations with the Separatists would not fail.

Considering the Separatist Movement was set up on Palpatine's orders, by his own apprentice, it's a fair bet that Palpatine's negotiations with Dooku would, at some point, have 'failed'. Either that or Palpatine could have simply ordered Dooku to have his forces make a provocative move against the Republic which could be taken as an act of war. The Senate would demand retaliation and give him his emergency powers so that he could sanction the creation of an army. At about that time he'd probably discover the army that had conveniently already been in production for ten years. I think it's likely that Palpatine would have had Dooku make the first aggressive move in the war because he wanted to portray himself as the good guy, protecting the Republic against the traitorous Separatists.

It's interesting that in the PT events always seem to conspire in such a way that superficially make it look like the good guys have won when in actual fact things have played right into the hands of the bad guys. In TPM Padme escapes the invasion of Naboo and comes to Coruscant. Ultimately that only serves to speed up Palpatine's plan to get rid of Valorum and be elected Chancellor. They defeat the Trade Federation invasion which only further embitters them against the Republic and makes them reliant on Sidious in the coming years, setting them up to become main players in the Separatist Movement. In Ep II the Jedi rescue Obi-Wan and the others but it ends up starting the war Palpatine always wanted. The Senate votes to create an army to protect the Republic but that just gives Palpatine the power he needs to become a dictator. The Jedi fight the war to try and save the Republic which in the end makes them vulnerable when Order 66 happens.

So Palpatine constantly sees his plans coming to fruition and turning the Jedi's Chosen One into his new apprentice is the icing on the cake. However, all that simply leads up to the point where the Chosen One ultimately does fulfil his destiny and kills Palpatine. So all his victories in the past were just putting him into position for his final defeat. So not that that's especially relevant but it shows that Palpatine always thought he was the one pulling the strings and that his dark side powers gave him mastery over the Force, rather than the Jedi who served the will of the Force. However, the Force effectively managed to manoeuvre him into place to be destroyed by its Chosen One. So the reason why the good guys' efforts go to waste in the short term is that the Force was working towards a bigger goal.

 

I question Palpatine's evil mastermind acumen sometimes. He has all these plans that fail and yet still lead to the result he hoped to accomplish by his plans.. He wanted to force Amidala to sign a treaty so the senate could see itself as broken and needing new leadership; he and his minions failed to get Amidala to sign a treaty and had her escape, but that still led to the senate seeing it needed new leadership. Palpatine wanted to kill Amidala to rally anti-war senators to sign the army creation act, he and his minions failed to kill Amidala but this led to the senate to sign the army creation act.

 

So, I suppose you could say that Palpatine need not try too hard at his smaller goals. Their failures lead him to victory, in the end.

 

Palpatine is a straight up G.

 

Palpatine's plan never needed everything to work out just right. As long as he was pushing the war along, things would have proceeded along a fairly predictable course. Just because the Jedi were more resourceful here and there or the Confederacy less competent than he may have anticipated wouldn't have mattered in the long run.