ST The Last Jedi Box Office Discussion (see warning on page 307 before posting)

With what? BatB in third?

 

or second. Too early to gauge where it will end. Also, it happens that movies don't win all 3 crowns - domestic, overseas and worldwide. TFA lost overseas to Furious 7, for example.. RO was #1 domestically but lost worldwide to Civil War at least and overseas to a bunch of movies. So TLJ, GOTG and BatB could be ranked differently too.

 

I also agree with what looks like Disney going to have the top 3 opening weekends of the year, likely to be Beauty and the Beast, Guardians ( could be heading for $ 170 mill plus as well ) and TLJ of course.

The Good Dinosaur was an expensive flop, but i guess John Lasseter is overseeing the whole animation division of Disney, not only Pixar alone, which means he has delivered what seems like close to a 100% hit statistic, including Frozen, Big Hero 6, Zootopia, Moana and coming up is him directing Toy Story 4 + executive producing Cars 3, Coco, Incredibles 2, Wreck it Ralph 2, Gigantic and Frozen 2 eventually. Think Disney has unlimited trust in him.
Can`t see any of the Marvel near future outings flopping either. Not for a long time. Disney`s biggest misfires lately has been their from their "own factory" , naming Tomorrowland and Alice 2. Both flopping at Memorial Day weekend actually, and if Pirates 5 is doing weak business in the same slot this year, i am starting to believe they should move Han Solo movie out of the early summer "bloodbath".

Some good buzz around for "Life" this weekend while Power Rangers looks like it will struggle a bit. It hurts to say it, but there is a chance that both Transformers and Fate of the Furious could match TLJs overseas gross ( because of Asian market ), still i think especially Furious will do less business in the US than expected, the Paul Walker effect is gone and trailer was just meh. But these two franchises will always have its audience.

 

I'd cry if it gets third or second..lol

 

I hope not, 10th place would be fine for BatB

 

Right now I'm predicting BatB in 2nd with around $420-$430 million and GOTG2 in third with somewhere between $380-$400 million (maybe slightly less). I'm going out on a limb to say that GOTG2's OW will be between $150-$160 million.

 

Unfortunately, Fate of the Furious is a real contender for biggest international gross of 2017 (outside the U.S.). I don't think it's going to be top 4 in the U.S., or top movie worldwide, but its international total could potentially pass TLJ's.

 

All the talk has been around Obi Wan or Boba Fett, huh.

I think an Obi story could really knit into the overall saga well and McGregor could further bridge that gap towards Guinness nicely.

Fett seems more like the 'fan service' route we've already touched upon - the ying/yang of this would be: sky-high pre-movie hype (SHORT-TERM WIN) maybe destroyed by a possibly crap end product which could totally ruin the character's mystique (LONG-TERM LOSE). Boba could be played by someone in the costume (like Vader) throughout the whole movie but then should be overdubbed by Temuera Morrison. But, also, will the Han Solo movie touch upon why he and Boba have beef (and lend more weight to Boba's collection in TESB)? If they do that, I think a Boba solo film then would need to be set before or after the Han Solo Story.

Someone else mentioned Lando up there - that could be on the cards if Donald Glover smashes his part in the Han Solo Story out the park.

I agree the franchise will definitely need a breather after the third solo movie because no doubt Disney will have another trilogy will be in the pipeline... maybe a halt on the stand-alone movies for a few years.

 

I'm definitely not going to watch all spin-offs just like I skip some Marvel movies. At some point, it gets too much and some stories and characters simply aren't interesting to me. I don't mind them making those movies cause there's audience for them, just that I'm not the audience for all. Episodes are my primary interest and the rest is really whatever. I can take it or leave it.

 

A Boba Fett movie should really not happen. Use the rumoured Josh Trank canceled movie / script for a standalone tv animated special. There are some highly acclaimed directors out there who wants to direct their own Star Wars Story, surely Lucasfilm has some alternative´s being considered.
Right now i just started watching HBOs Westworld, finally, and totally hooked on it. A western sci fi feel to an Obi Wan movie is also my preference for Lucasfilm`s next. And i hope they take a 5 year break from episode films after IX. But ultimately the years will go by, everyone at this forum are going to die, with some new Star Wars episodes being made without us......i know that sounds awfully pessimistic, but it might be true.

Just don´t spend time think about it

 

Furious 8 is going to do sick business internationally. It is known commodity that easily translates across different regions. I do think Paul Walker not being in it will hurt the domestically overhaul. Not a ton long as the movie is good but there should be a drop.

And long as their is only one Star Wars movie in the theater every year, it will be my one treat a year to see a movie opening night and pay full price. Now if becomes Marvel and we start getting 2-3 movies a year somehow, then I won't. I will see them all don't get me wrong just not Opening Night.

 

The other thing Furious 8 has going for it is April to itself. May, June, July - there's no respite. Guardians 2 is followed by the likely King Arthur flop, but everything else is just slammed.

GotG2
King Arthur
Alien Covenant
Baywatch/PotC
Wonder Woman
Mummy
Cars 3
Transformers
Despicable Me 3
Spider-Man
Monkey Planet
Dunkirk/Valerian

There's a lot of failure built into that schedule. I'm only rooting for one movie in that bunch to succeed: Dunkirk

Frankly, I'm glad The Last Jedi isn't stuck in the 2017 May-July box office quagmire.

 

Yeah it's funny when everyone knows a bomb is inbound, I have to think the studios are smart, they know once the writing is on the wall. King Arthur is not going to be a winner, I'm sorry for them. I hope they realize that. The Valerian movie also looks like a massive bomb. It's not that it isn't pretty to look at, but you can just see that type of movie underwhelming big time ala Jupiter Ascending. Of course, I really love Fifth Element, but even look at that movie. It wasn't a hit. It is now considered a near classic film by many, but even I didn't see it in theaters and wasn't initially interested.

I agree with Rylo, forget that May - July period, no thanks. The Last Jedi would be lucky to have a 2 week run in IMAX if it was in that period. Just too many other big movies out. It's a terrible time for a Star Wars movie. I want my 4-8 weeks in IMAX!

Beauty and the Beast isn't making just $420M I'm sorry to tell you. Like, trust me, nobody would be happier than me with that because it would then make sure it doesn't replace any Star Wars movies on the top 10, but it's just not going to happen. You're talking about UNDER a 2.5 multiple. Is this Batman v. Superman?! Hahaha no, it's a wide appeal family film. It's going to come very close to $500M if not clear that too. I'm just praying it doesn't touch Rogue One. Monday's number sucked, so that's encouraging, but it IS a family film so mid-week grosses will be much more muted and weekends probably stronger holds by comparison.

 

BatB will be very close to R1, from 1.04B to at most 1.1B. R1 made 1.05B.

Disney owns the Box Office again in 2017.

 

out of these movies, I may only watch GotG2 in cinema. Maybe also Wonder Woman and Valerian. The rest is completely forgettable. I don't watch a 900th version of Spider Man or Transformers bs. And I hate war movies based on real events. Tom Cruise Mummy reboot is also a waste.

 

most anticipated movies in Germany for 2017 (user rating). TLJ only 4th.

2067 - Alien: Covenant - Kinostart: 18.05.2017

1932 - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 - Kinostart: 27.04.2017
1819 - Pirates of the Caribbean 5 - Kinostart: 25.05.2017
1557 - Star Wars: Episode VIII - Kinostart: 14.12.2017
1339 - Justice League - Kinostart: 16.11.2017
1066 - Blade Runner 2049 - Kinostart: 05.10.2017
1054 - Thor 3: Ragnarok - Kinostart: 26.10.2017
1004 - Der dunkle Turm - Kinostart: 10.08.2017

917 - Ghost in the Shell - Kinostart: 30.03.2017
915 - Dunkirk - Kinostart: 27.07.2017
697 - Song to Song - Kinostart: 25.05.2017
643 - Life - Kinostart: 23.03.2017
626 - Spider-Man: Homecoming - Kinostart: 13.07.2017

593 - Wonder Woman - Kinostart: 15.06.2017
544 - Sieben Minuten nach Mitternacht - Kinostart: 04.05.2017
525 - Valerian - Die Stadt der Tausend Planeten - Kinostart: 20.07.2017

http://www.moviepilot.de/news/filme...filme-2017-eure-am-meisten-vorgemerkten-filme

 

Most anticipated according to German audience?

 

yep

 

I don;t know about the Netherlands but I think TLJ will rank higher in the US.

 

Very excited for Alien Covenant and Blade Runner admittedly, and I'm vaguely hoping that if these two are good, they could offer some sci fi inspiration for future SW projects. Agreed w/ most of the criticism about Prometheus, but I think the series at least does a better job of establishing two truly alien presences/threats through the Engineers and Xenomorphs whereas most of the alien species we see in SW feel much more humanoid in their activities. Who knows if we'll ever see anything like the Yuuzhan Vong or a new threat while exploring the Unknown Regions, but not feeling very scared of Snoke or the villains this time around. Also, I think Denis Villeneuve has been such a hugely exciting director, the one I would've wished most for future SW films to hire, but if he redoes the Dune series, then probably less chance for SW relation, but yeah, just always glad to see the sci fi market expanding.

 

Germany is excited about Alien: Covenant after watching Prometeturd?

 

This is one of the very rare occasion when we agree on something.

 

There were similar polls in the US about this time in 2015 showing the Hunger Games sequel as more anticipated than The Force Awakens. I know better now than to believe them. You definitely get a recency issue. The movies coming out sooner get more highly rated than the movies that come out later, mostly because people pragmatically are only thinking about the movies coming out in the next few weeks to few months.

That list demonstrates this clearly. Top of mind for Germans are the things coming out through May. After that? Star Wars, baby.

 

I don't think Alien will ever have as wide appeal as SW does, and I felt disappointed after Prometheus, but I think the series attempts AI and aliens in a more interesting way than SW does. SW has much better characterization and heart so the human-ness of the story is a strength, but I sometimes get frustrated how it presents such a simplified sci f/fable world. The film planets all have breathable atmospheres, interstellar travel goes pretty darn smoothly, and it feels like such a human-centered universe. Smaller films like Arrival and Ex Machina present cooler sci fi questions I think, and I always hope it trickles to whoever might be directing more broadly appealing, future SW projects. Rian's definitely quite exciting, but I really do wish someone like Alex Garland and Villeneuve would take on SW.