Solo Solo box-office discussion

Monster Trucks, the Smurfs, Transformers movies, Twilight movies, Madea movies, Alvin and the Chipmunks...all got A Cinemascores. The process is rigged to favor high ratings. Only 19 movies tested in the history of all Cinemascored movies have been given a 'do not pass' score of F. They survey opening night (AKA the dedicated) in a handful of the largest U.S. cities. The global reaction to TLJ online was quite different (Solo's average - not on this version of the image - is right now quite similar to TPM and AOTC.)

 

The stuff referenced in your image aren't scientific polls based on random samples--they're polls based on self-selected samples. The point of polling is to get a measure of what the population at large thinks, and in order to do that you have to have a sample that is representative of that population. Self-selected polls, such as rottentomatoes or IMDb scores and whatnot, only measure what people who bother to go those sites think. Therefore such polls aren't representative, and you can't generalize to the population based on them.

The stuff you're talking about on Cinemascore is nonsense, by the way. In 2018 alone, 19 movies have received an F, for one--for another, their sampling is regionally balanced.

 

There were several factors that contributed to SOLO's box office performance. I absolutely believe it was a perfect storm against the SW franchise for SOLO.

But trying to suggest the negative reaction to TLJ isn't among those factors --and isn't a major factor itself --seems silly. Of course it is.

I'm not in love with TLJ, but it's not a deal-breaker for me. It's not the movie I wanted or would have made, but I think it was made well. Luke's death scene is beautiful and the story ultimately works for me.

A *lot* of the fanbase and the general audience very much disagree with me.

And SOLO was the whipping boy.


Joke's on them though --- SOLO was made for *them* and they're only cheating themselves.

 

I tend to agree in a way that Solo is very much a movie made for the fans and those that aren't seeing it are actually missing out. I imagine in time those fans will see it and will be pleasantly surprised and will really enjoy it.

There is not a lot to hate in the movie and felt that it was respected the legacy of the characters and the universe and most importantly it actually felt like a Star Wars movie.

I can't stand TLJ and was expecting something bad, but walked away really impressed and enjoyed it even more than Rogue One.

My wife who is only a very casual fan absolutely hated TLJ, but she loved Solo and thought it was one of her favourite Star Wars movies.

 

Its a funny one as to me its the fans who seem to have been the most resistant to Harrison Ford being recast and have not been prepared to give Solo their attention. Having a lot of fan services though doesn’t really mean its made for the fans does it? I think I’m doubtful that its been an entirely successful film with either fans or the GA.

 

Once again, there's no evidence to support any of that. Audiences rated TLJ similarly to how they rated TFA and R1.

 

Exit polls from five months ago being brought up as evidence of what the general opinion of something is today is misleading. People have had five months to process and discuss, it's their opinion now that matters, not their opinion five months ago.

 

Where would we even get that information though? RT? The most accurate thing we have is Metacritic, but most people dismiss that whenever it's brought up.

 

With regards to TLJ, both RT and Metacritic are tainted by three factors:
1. Current voting is informed by standings established across five months
2. Current voting is on a very small scale, guaranteeing inaccurate results
3. Current voting being on a very small scale guarantees it's skewed towards people with a heavy level of investment, therefore not being representative of general audience opinion

They're not anymore accurate at portraying what the opinion of TLJ is today, or how said opinion contributed in informing decisions to watch or not watch Solo, than the exit polls from five months ago - all of that data is unusable to properly study TLJ opinion today and its impact on Solo's performance.

As to where we would get that information, we wouldn't, unless someone is willing to start a gofundme-type campaign or directly hire an opinion study institute and have them conduct a proper study of why audiences did/did not go watch Solo, and measuring the role current response to TLJ plays in that.

 

As I said, it's possible that the general audience's attitudes have changed--people conform their attitudes to match those of others, we're sheep--but there's no evidence of these attitudes having changed. If you want to believe that they've changed, knock yourself out and believe what you will, but my point is that you're not basing that belief on any valid evidence.

And to preemptively address some possible concerns:

"But what about the 100 crybabies who respond negatively to every single Star Wars Facebook post...."
That's evidence that there are 100 crybabies who respond negatively to every single Star Wars Facebook post, but you can't generalize from that to the population. In order to use a sample to say something about a population, that sample has to be representative of the population--that means the sample has to have the same characteristics, on average, as the population does. And the best way to ensure that a sample is representative of the population is to have it be a randomly selected sample. People responding to Facebook posts aren't a randomly selected sample, and neither are people who rate IMDB or Rottentomatoes. Posttrak and Cinemascore are polling companies that use scientific polling techniques to measure audience's opinions of the movies they've watched, and as such their results are infinitely more valid measurements of these things.

"But I didn't like it! And neither do a lot of people I know!"
You and your friends aren't representative of the general population, either. By the way, it's well established that people are biased to believe that their opinions, beliefs, preferences etc. are far more common than they actually are; this is called the false consensus effect. Don't fall into the trap of believing that your opinion is the most common one.


All of that said, I'm pretty sure Disney will do/is doing their own marketing research as to the causes of Solo's relative box office failure. They'd be very unwise to take into account the speculations of fans on message boards.

 

Actually, there is: the date is five months later. Opinion isn't a static thing. What it is today? No proper idea, nobody actually produced relevant data ^^

Damn right.

 

As somebody who doesn't like TLJ, Solo represents many of the same flaws. Just endlessly exploiting old OT references and scenes and dialogue, rather than having any new story to tell. There's no feeling of honesty in these movies, only cash grabs. Fortunately Rogue One's final act worked out amazing, and TFA had a few good character scenes like Poe giving Finn his name, but otherwise, yeesh, lay off the OT nostalgia baiting Disney, and especially don't just copy scene and dialogue from it while getting basic character traits wrong like turning Yoda into an actual madman or Luke into some guy who casually considers and goes partway through murdering darkside family members in their sleep. Also never ever let somebody like RJ have full control again, and actually have real writers supervise and ensure basic mistakes like heavy exposition dumps and narration and sideplots which go nowhere don't end up in your feature films.

 

I'd say that this is more true for Solo than for TLJ. Even if we might not like it, it seems that Rj at least tried to develop new ideas. I claim that, conceptually, among the four directors he was the bravest one. Than yes, you're right, it's also true that he was inspired by the OT in several scenes. That's undeniable.

Canto Bight doesn't go "nowhere". It's just a plan who ends up failing. We can't argue that any plan thay is shown onscreen is automatically supposed to succeed.

 

I wonder if the famous frog in the water pan slowly being heated to boiling point wonders if the trend is real, or just finds out when it's too late?

 

Maybe this KK rumor does has some basis. Movieweb have now done an article on it as well and they always seem to be very much on a pro-Disney side with their articles.

 

Disney have probably crunched the numbers and I suppose it isn't looking good for Episode 9 and the future anthology movies.

 

If Kennedy does end up being replaced in September, ie. doesn't even continue overseeing the production of Ep. IX proper, that would be a sign Disney are seriously disappointed by her recent performance...

 

To be honest I give it little credit. Just can't see the reasoning of setting a future date of September.

On another note, the Kylo Ren Review on Solo is hilarious. Maybe the best yet.

Hey - DVD Sales for the last Jedi. Lots of talk about this yesterday and suddenly something gets published https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Star-Wars-Ep-VIII-The-Last-Jedi#tab=video-sales

 

Compared figures for US Blu-ray:

TFA: 4/17/2016 (3rd week) Week sales 688,619 Total sales 4,109,159 Week earnings $17,187,930 Total earnings $102,564,608
TLJ (estimate on 3rd week): Week sales N/A Total sales 1,940,241 Week earnings N/A Total earnings $45,052,396

That's a more than -50% dip from TFA, even taking into account market evolution and inflation for corrections

 

Do you have the same data for TPM vs AOTC and Age of Ultron vs The Avengers?

 

Ah, now, there is something. Something--though nothing conclusive, as far as I can tell; DVD/BRD sales have been in freefall for some time in favor of streaming, so it's entirely expected that TLJ would sell fewer copies than TFA. So, how would sales look if we factored streaming into account?

 

Not really going to have that for TPM v. AotC on account of the DVD standard exploding between the two releases, so there's not really much ground for comparison.

Can't take into account DVD too well for Avengers v. Age of Ultron, but as to US Blu-ray, Age of Ultron got crushed. First comparison point available is 4 weeks into the release:

Avengers: 3,905,041 units sold for $85,732,272
Age of Ultron: 1,057,895 units sold for $20,946,321

 

DVD sales aren't included in the figures I posted precisely because of the DVD market crash. BRD US sales are in very slight progression (less than 5% between 2015 and 2017), trend holding so far.

 

The overall list is quite interesting. Especially when you consider the movies still to be added to it like BP and IW etc.

https://www.the-numbers.com/home-market/packaged-media-sales/2018

 

For me the input that Disney should take from Solo is that SW simply needs force, needs some mysticism to be something else. I was happy that Lucas didnt create that Underworld tv series, I couldnt care less about Canto Bight in TLJ (but Ahch-To save it big time and thats why I love TLJ) and I really hope Favreau series will be heavily featuring Luke, Ahsoka or Snoke, not just some resistance crap.