Amph The 2024 Box Office Blood Replenishment

I predict No Superhero Franchise fatigue for Deadpool 3, Venom 3 and Joker 2 (the movies about anti-hero/bad guys, 2 of which are R-rated). All other franchises, watch the heck out. Maybe, uh, Wicked Part 1 as the sleeper success? Unknown about Mean Girls (2024) version as it is a beloved classic but any and all ads are hiding that it's a musical, it just sorta looks like a remake. Nobody likes to sell musicals as musicals anymore.

Anyway, Dune Part II definitely out-grosses the first one. Maybe a double shot!

 

I have severe reservations about Wicked...like why break it into 2 movies to accommodate more things from the book when you were just adapting the play? It didn't need to broken up...at all.

Plus the cast, and some controversy behind the scenes...yeah no good expectations for it

 

After 2023, the industry should look at that menu for 2024 and be uneasy.

Maybe they can rush some stuff delayed by the strike to the finish line and get it in.

It is going to be a rough year.

 

Deadline is predicting probably uncontroversially that 2024 total box office will be significantly down relative to 2023, due to strike fallout affecting the calendar, but the break from many of the big franchises is just what audiences need.

The trailers for the new Ghostbusters are the best the franchise has ever done. Just from the point of view of massive trailer appeal I think it could have one of the better opening weekends of the year even if it ultimately underperforms.

Universal won 2023 but Sony is on a roll making better superhero movies than anyone else. I thought the webwoman timelooping Dakota Johnson trailer was really good too. If Frozone Empire and the remake of Next starring Dakota Johnson as Nick Cage do well their year could be pretty great.

 

Also special thanks to @The2ndQuest for your wildly successful box office blood franchise. Happy New Year!

 

I'm interested in Joker 2's performance (despite having no interest in the film itself) because, yeah, that first one made approximately all of the money on a thin budget, but the budget has tripled and now we're post-pandemic. Do people still love Joker or was that a time and place thing you can't recapture? I honestly have no idea how that film is going to do, and that's exciting.

 

We already know Avatar 3 unless delayed another year will be the top movie of 2025, but 2024 is a mystery to me. I don't see anything on the calendar that looks like a shoe-in for $1 billion worldwide. I know no one expected Barbie or even SMB to take the year, so anything is possible, but what looks like a surprise cultural event film on this calendar? Deadpool 3 and maybe the Quiet Place prequel look like the closest things to a guaranteed hit, but that may be just prepandemic thinking.

Another great trailer: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - just absolutely traileriffic.

It's another year where apart from Dune, the things I'm most looking forward to are streaming: the live action Last Airbender and Fallout series.

The first post of this thread was the first I've heard about the animated Lord of the Rings spinoff movie. That has all the ingredients to be one of the year's biggest flops.

 

Going by the House of Gucci promotional campaign, I'm surprised we aren't getting stories about how Lady Gaga tried to tattoo clown makeup to her face or that she "really fell in love" with Joaquin Phoenix because she is a Serious Actress who deserves that Oscar.

 

I'm not convinced anyone really liked Joker. I'm convinced people thought they were supposed to like it and so pretended to their friends that they though it was good. Joker 2 should fail on those grounds: deliberately watching another performance like that is just too big a chore for most people.

 

We'll see how it goes.

From that list, right now I'm most interested in:
* Dune 2
* the anime LOTR War of the Rohirrim
* mayybeee Inside Out 2

The rest will wait for streaming and/or reviews and hype.

It's been in production for a while now (about 3-4 years by time it releases next December) and pre-production even longer. It seems a lot of fans are interested in the Anime take on it, and it covering a new story, with New Line Cinema still involved too.
The voice cast looks good too, with a reprise from Eowyn's Miranda Otto (presumably as narrator).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lord_of_the_Rings:_The_War_of_the_Rohirrim
I also don't think an Anime movie would be as expensive to make as most other movies on that list.

 

I wouldn't sleep on animated LOTR, Spider-Verse proves animation can crossover into adult fans (and the good showing of Boy and the Heron was that too) So just stuff that trailer with LOTR war stuff with a few giant trolls and you got a potential hit

 

The release schedule is pretty dire. Of those I recognize, I am only really looking forward to Furiosa and KotPotAot. I am ambivalent regarding the new LotR movie which I had forgotten was a thing; I hope it doesn't feel as empty as Amazon's effort.

 

As one of the people who personally loved Joker (yes, we do exist, Ken), I still came out of my first viewing of it expecting it to not be a hit. I told a friend that I loved it and thought it was great, but I expected that even audience members who liked it wouldn't be interested in watching it again because it was so oppressive and unpleasant at times. I did not think it was the kind of movie that would produce people going to the theater multiple times to see it. I was clearly wrong about that. I think tripling the budget for the sequel wasn't a smart move and I suspect that, with the novelty factor removed and the world in a different time and place, the sequel will not be nearly as big a hit and could potentially be a flop. But I was super-wrong about the first one, even as someone who really, really liked the movie. So, yeah, this one is a mystery to me as well. I'm definitely on the side of "it's not going to do well," but I'm more than usually cautious about it with this movie.

 

you forgot Dune....

 

I didn't do what must be Dune.

 

I don't know...I could see a Christmas release being pushed up to a summer slot.

Maybe something in the Spring 2025 window getting a "hurry post production" to get a fall 2024 release...particularly if they think they have a chance in award season.

With the release schedule looking like this, I bet lots of producers are thinking "If I can get this film into theaters before next New Years, we've got an 2025 Oscar nomination in the bag".

 

Madme WebBillion. Mark it down!

 

I had actually somehow forgotten that it's a musical. Yeah, I'm definitely on the "it's going to flop" side of things now that you're reminded me of that.

 

If current advertising trends are any indication there won't be any singing in Joker 2 ads (although maybe some GaGa warble)