ST Episode IX Box Office Discussion

Are we still going on with this "TLJ sucks and Star Wars is ruined" stuff? That was old and pathetic a year ago, at this point it exposes those who have no life, like time to let it go and move on.

Speaking of moving on, we'll have a Dune movie next year, so let's hope it's something to get excited about. Finally, maybe a remake with some artistic credibility. The first one was not a hit, so at least we know it isn't jumping on the money wagon like all of these Disney remakes. The movies are going downhill the same way the music industry did- by corporate mergers that end up jamming ad nauseum remakes and shameless copies down the pipe for every past movie that was a hit. Ultimately stifling to creativity, and causing the same product to be released over and over. When everything is owned by a few corporations, all they will do is play repeats of what makes money; they won't try to innovate or be creative in any meaningful way because they don't have to. When was the last big new music movement you heard of? Grunge and industrial in the 90's? Corporate greed has stopped anything new and innovative from making it to the mainstream, it's all nothing but repeats just like the movies are doing. Regurgitation of the commercially popular.

 

The focus on the US domestic market for any film is short-sighted as is the evaluation of that film based on that market. Americans are the ones with the most media and entertainment options.

Context matters.

 

TLK outgrossed H &S on both Tuesday and Wednesday last week, and just became the highest-grossing live-action remake ever. Out grossing BATB


" So it still falls in the animation category. But even if you refuse to see it that way, The Lion King is also now the #1 Disney remake, period. ( PERIODT)

Disney wins either way, but just this weekend, The Lion King managed to pass the worldwide grosses of Incredibles 2 and Frozen, dethroning Frozen as the highest-grossing animated movie ever."
https://www.cinemablend.com/news/24...rozen-as-highest-grossing-animated-movie-ever

 

Disney won't even blink at TLK "only" being a $550/1.5 billion split. It's going to wind up in the Top Ten Worldwide and Top Twelve Domestically. Again they won't even blink at those numbers especially the summer they had. End Game became the biggest grosser all time worldwide while another movie will wind up at $1.5 billion (The Lion King) and two others (Aladdin, Toy Story 4) all go over a billion worldwide as well. Oh and they share a property that went over a billion as well worldwide (Spidey Far From Home). So I don't think Disney brass is too upset that TLK is "only" going to be $550/1.5 billion split. Quite frankly you could argue considering how much Disney has exhausted the box office this summer, it's amazing to see it doing so well especially since schools are starting back up again (first day back with the kiddies was today!).

And Dune does not come out to November of next year. I believe it's slated for Thanksgiving weekend of next year or just before it. So we are on long ways off with that but definitely looking forward especially since Villeneuve is directing.

 

Good that you cleared that up before TROS happening - context do matter

Expect you to not link to any «Star Wars bombing in China» clickbait articles this time around then.

And US with most media and entertainment options? Eh.

Anyway, US is still the biggest and symbolically the most important box office market in the world. Now, i think that could be about to change, but as pr now, this is how it is.

@Luke02 Dune has moved to December 18th 2020.

 

What?

Star Wars will continue to bomb in China and that is an issue. It was one of the key markets Disney wanted when they bought LFL. Gotta know the context first.

And US representing all of BO has already changed for most in the industry.

There is a reason where its fans talking about domestic results vs international and not most who are in the business or follow it.

 

I agree that Disney hasn’t proven that they realize that over reliance on the OT won’t work long term. I believe after the release of TROS there will be changes and I think Solo was a wake up moment. Remember TLJ was being advertised as being different and it was but a lot of fans did not like how Luke was handled. The story direction of TLJ took was a reaction to avoid the rehash label put of TFA and also avoid repeating ESB. Remember Disney had a rumored Boba Fett movie, Obi Wan, Jabba, Yoda films that we no longer hear about because how beloved those characters are they observed the reactions to how Luke, Han, and Leia have been handled. Rogue One didn’t get that nasty feedback because it wasn’t really about the OT characters. Vader shows up for two scenes and Leia for one. So I do believe they got the message but I agree they haven’t proved that yet. The next trilogies will give us answers. I will say this, I think Kathleen Kennedy will step down after TROS. Just a gut feeling and I think the next trilogies will restore some goodwill with the franchise if they step outside the OT box. The next trilogies probably will average between $750mill-$1.2bill. These numbers could slowly go up if they manage to capture more overseas business. I believe this could be achieved with more fast paced action, basically large scale war in crazy environments. Take the end of AOTC, mixed with ROTS and RO scale space battles, TPM lightsaber fights, ESB alien feel, plus new original character and story. Imagine the look of Blade Runner 2049 and Rogue One combined.

 

The domestic market is certainly the one where the studios take their biggest cut but with some movies, you can tell they were made with the idea of overseas markets "bailing" them out. And of course studios take the most in the first few weeks. In that regard, Endgame, making that much over such a short span of time, was probably insanely studio-friendly. Mind you, I bet it also movie-theater-friendly in that it led to mucho concession sales.

For SW, the US is undoubtedly the biggest and strongest market at this point in time. That`s why I expect TROS to do well there. TLJ didn`t have the best of holiday legs but even that led to a 600+ take. Now, granted, that was also due to a massive opening weekend but in December, I do expect a big OW for episode 9 as well. If it was wedged into several summer releases this summer? Maybe not that big but there isn`t a lot of competition in December. Even if Jumanji pops again, the holidays are more than enough to sustain two big movies simultaneously.

 

I think Jumanji comes out a week or two before TROS so I don’t think it will effect TROS legs as much as it did TLJ. I agree that TROS will probably have better legs. That last trailer coming out in October will give us a better idea of the tone of the movie. TFA final trailer was very optimistic and mysterious. TLJ was darker and less optimistic. TROS will probably be optimistic with more action than TFA and TROS. I think most people will at least check it out within two weeks of release. If the movie ties things together well I believe the legs will be better than TLJ for sure but less than TFA.

 

TLJ had the same amount of legs that Anakin had after Obi was finished with him

 

Anything less than TLJ is a failure imo as its the final episode. That is the reason Ep 6 outpaced Ep 5 some in the original release even though Ep 5 was the better movie to most people.

 

I won`t say that Revenge of the Sith had fantastic legs either. Probably due to it being such a dark ending of the prequel saga.

That said. Chances that Rey cut off Kylo`s legs in TROS is bigger than her giving him a kiss.

 

domestic SW:TROS <= TLK
foreign SW:TROS < TLK
world SW:TROS < TLK

 

I think TROS will make abit more than TLJ. mostly because i think there will be a strong nostalgic presence there as the hook. and i think they will market that way and people will be curious enough to see it

 

Foreign and Worldwide, absolutely. Domestic, I`d say a little bit higher for TROS.

 

So, unless my mind is playing tricks on me, <= means less than or equal to. Thus your statement says that TROS will make less than or equal to TLK. TLK=The Lion King. Thus, you are stating that TROS will make less than The Lion King's domestic. Being that TLK will end up at around $530-$540 million domestic (based on its first 3 drops), TROS will make less than or equal to $530-$540 million domestic?

Am I reading you correctly @MagnarTheGreat or am I going nuts.

 

No, you're not nuts. And I think TLK could finish a little higher than those numbers. If TLK made 90% of its final gross on Day 24 (yesterday), it's final gross would be ~$526M (2.74 first weekend multiplier). And these first entry live-action movies generally burn much longer than that even if the multiplier suffers.

The Lion King: currently Day 17 (2.47) (July)
Beauty and the Beast: Day 31 (2.88) (March)
Cinderella: Day 32 (2.96) (March)
The Jungle Book: Day 39 (3.53) (April)
Aladdin: currently Day 44 (3.86) (May)



Previously I had it under TLK domestic as opposed to 'or equal to', but TLK languishing in the 500s changed that equation.

 

TFA: $ 936 mill
TLJ: $ 620 mill
TROS; ?

TLK; ?

Likely TLK ends up under $ 550 mill and its not a sequel either. You can pick and choose which Star Wars you wanna compare it to.

 

700 million TROS North America, 700 million TROS international for 1.4 billion. That's my low end projection. Highest end would be 1.6 billion. But Star Wars movies seem to split almost 50/50 ish unlike most movies where North America is like maybe 30% now.

But honestly if it makes *only* 1 billion dollars, at that point I'm pretty sure everyone is getting greenbacks nobody is complaining too much. I think something like Avengers Endgame needs to make a billion dollars to make a profit but Rise of Skywalker is probably 100 million cheaper than the 350 million budget Endgame.

 

if SW:TROS and FROZEN2 do better than Toy Story 4, the Top 10 median will be around $430M ((TS4+CM)/2) (+32% over the previous for the Top 10 year like 2015 and 2012.)

 

TLJ had a 46.5% domestic to a 53.5% international split so TROS getting $700 domestic the we would be looking at $1.505 billion worldwide based on the same formula as TLJ which is also very close to TFA's 45.3% / 54.7 % split .

 

yah I think the narrowest I could peg TROS would be either 1.4 to 1.6 billion dollars total

 

I think it'll be heavier on the domestic side this time than TLJ. Each movie since TFA has become more domestic heavy.

"Episode" domestic / foreign
SW:TFA (2015) 45.3% / 54.7%
SW:TLJ (2017) 46.5% / 53.5%
SW:TROS (2019) TBD / TBD

"A Star Wars Story" domestic / foreign
RO:ASWS (2016) 50.4% / 49.6%
S:ASWS (2018) 54.4% / 45.6%