PT How did Palpatine know Obi-Wan would find Kamino?

I see where you are coming from but I think that the problem with the scenario is the politics involved. There is a strong ant war movement and it appear that the Senate will vote against an army ( hence Palpatine holding off the vote). Dooku is leader of the Separatists but as I mentioned they think he is a good guy. The actual Separatists do not seem to be at the Geonosis meeting, Dooku is basically having a conference to enlist the aid of the Commerce guilds in return for something. Dooku sells the plan as one of brinkmanship, form a massive army and make demands to scare the senate.

Two potential problems arise with this, The first is the Senate. Faced with the threats from Dooku there is a strong possibility that the Senate will fold and give concessions to the Separatists. This is because the Loyalists already want to negotiate anyway and some of the Senate members who want to bully the Separatist with the threat of an army ( their own brinkmanship) will back down rather than actually risk a damaging war that will leave them worse off ( its all about their greed after all).

This leads to a situation where the Senate back down and Palpatine, rather than being seen as the strong Chancellor who fights a serious threat becomes the Chancellor who split the Republic in two. Palpatine is screwed then, Its the sort of political disaster that usually causes regretful polititians to resign after all. Worse for Palpatine he is either near the end of his term or ( based on the EU) already serving an extended term due to the crisis. Without the emergency powers his future is in doubt and the greedy Senators ( who ironically would have forced the settlement) sooner or later looking for someone to blame would probably call for a vote of no confidence.

The second problem is with Dooku. The obvious retort to the above problem is to just have Dooku attack first however this is not as easy as one might suppose. Dooku has his own senate of Separatists to answer to and they are unlikely to agree to a first strike before threatening the Republic with their new army. Its also worth considering the Trade Federation and the others as well. They have agreed to support the Separatists but are cowards at heart and a first strike with little gain is not going to sit well with them ( Gunray, in particular has played that game before). Its likely they hope to gain without having to use their army.

So Dooku cannot just order an attack and is forced to make demands first. The Republic makes concessions and, as far as starting a war goes, he is also screwed. Still at least he gets to look like a strong leader and hero.



With the way things go down onscreen all these problems are avoided, and added bonuses are gained. With Kenobi going from Kamino to Geonosis there is no real time for investigation of the Clone army before the Separatist threat is revealed. The army seems more threatening without any demands, so Palpatine can get his emergency power.Note that Organa, who believes that the Commerce guilds are preparing for war, says the Senate will not vote for the use of a clone army before an attack. ( though why they vote for a measure that will circumvent them is anyones guess)

The Clone army is then sent to Geonosis.to back up the Jedi who have gone to investigate. Thats perfect as things play out the Republic effectively makes a first strike while saving the Jedi. That pretty much kills diplomacy dead and forces the commerce guilds, who stand exposed as collaborators forced into a position where they cannot back out without repercussions to themselves.
Even better, Dooku can now go back to the Separatist Senate and tell the sad tale of how his conference with the trade guilds was subject to an unprovoked attack from the Republic with an army the Republic has kept hidden. From the Separatist perspective the Republic look like bad guys who will crush anyone who attempts to challenge their corruption.
An added bonus to this is that the Jedi can now pronounce to all and sundry that Dooku is a Sith lord but the Separatists are going to see it as an attempt at slander, trying to discredit the one Jedi who was disgusted enough to walk away from corruption.

The Jedi are always going to fight the war as planned, and really since they are already overstretched they have no time to investigate the army further ( Mace also kills their best lead by decapitation - some good Master thinking right there). With the Jedi finding Geonosis straight after Kamino there is never time to stop and think ( even if Kenobi caught Jango and returned him to the Jedi - all he has to do is reveal what he knows which leads pretty much to the same place).


So my conclusion, runs contrary to yours, and having Kenobi find the army is less risky and gives Palpatine everything he wants while keeping everyone else off balance. Lucas statements back this up and in this context, hopefully make a bit more sense. That said I do not think that Palpatine planned the dart stuff. Merely had faith that the Relentless Jedi would track Jango to Geonosis, The dart just made things easier for Kenobi.
For me it makes Palpatine a stronger character, brilliantly playing chessmaster which for me makes the plot stronger, more logical and the movie stronger.

Just my opinion, thanks for listening.

 

I think you win this thread!

Perhaps Palps didn't want the clone army to be found before the right time, because it could endanger his plan or something.

Yea, you said it before I did. But don't the clones mature really fast?

 

I think it's in the novelization of AOTC that they specifically say that the adult clones, who look about 20, are the ones who were first created 10 years before - and that they matured twice as fast.

 

Its in the Movie. Obi Wan is told that clones are subject to growth acceleration so they reach maturity in half the time.

 

Good to hear that it's in both.

 

OK, I understand your stance. You find it illogical that Palpatine would use a plan the way it's portrayed, or at least I portray it in AOTC, because it's way over complicated. That's fine you feel that way. However, there is no way I can discuss "what if" scenarios with you that have nothing to back them up in the movie. It's not a fair discussion to have because I am stuck trying to fit my answer within what we see in the movies, and you get to say "yeah, but what if" and base those "what if's" solely on your opinion of what might be better and not on what we actually see in the movie. If there was a scene in the movie where Palpatine says "That Obi Wan is being a thorn in my side" or something similar that suggests that things aren't going how Palpatine wants them to go, well I would love to sit and have that discussion with you. However, your points have nothing to back them up in the actual movie, the only thing that you have to back it up is that is sounds better in your head. I can't defend my points against what sounds better in your head. Hell you may at some point present a scenario that even I think sounds more fun and interesting than what we see in the movie, but, that wouldn't mean that it's right and what is really happening in the movie. I hope you see what I'm getting at.

Ok this we can get into

Ok first I will start with the "Dark Jedi". Now perhaps there is no such thing as a Dark Jedi in Lucas' mind. However, there has to be room for anyone, whether it be a Jedi, or just someone who is strong with the Force, to fall to the dark side. The Sith are an organization, they aren't the Dark Side themselves, the same as The Jedi are an organization, and they themselves aren't the Light Side. Anyone that uses the correct emotions with the Force can either use the Dark Side or vice versa. They don't have to be a Sith or a Jedi to use either side. Anakin wasn't a Jedi or a Sith in TPM, however, he was unconsciously using the Force to benefit.

Now, we know that prior to the events of TPM, the Jedi thought the Sith extinct. However, they upheld their code of only taking very young children to be trained. This code was in place, in part, to ensure that a young child's emotions could be shaped without the influence of the outside world. This shaping was needed so that the child could be taught at a young age to control emotions, and not to use bad emotions like anger, hate, etc when using the Force. Why would the Jedi want to make sure that the children don't use these dark emotions? Obviously because there is a chance they could fall to the Dark Side by using the wrong emotions. With the Jedi still believing that the Sith were extinct and that there was still a need for proper teaching, means that there is a possibility that a student, or Jedi, could fall to the Dark Side, just not be a Sith. Whether they were called Dark Jedi, or "those that shall not be named" doesn't really matter, it seems that the Jedi are aware of the possibility of some one falling to the Dark Side.

As far as why at the end of TPM the council changes their minds about Maul, I think it's because they needed to see for themselves. It seems to me that Qui Gon is a sort of trouble maker in the Jedi ranks. It seems he has had run-ins with difference of opinions and philosophies with the Council before as we see from some of Obi Wans comments in TPM. So once the Council inspects Mauls remains, they can see for themselves that this wasn't just a mere individual that was self taught how to use the Dark Side. I just think they don't believe Qui Gon at first, then add to that he claimed to have found Star Wars' equivalent of Jesus Christ. Just to use a real world example, if a priest, high up in the Roman Catholic Church, who has had problems with the hierarchy of the Church in the past, comes and starts telling them he fought the Devil in the middle of the dessert (literally, not metaphorically), I would bet he would get some strange looks as well. I see that as what has happened in Qui Gon's case. Add to that the Council's arrogance, that they just can't believe the Sith could have come back without them knowing, and you have a potent mixture that allows the Council not to believe until they have 1 dead Jedi Master at their feet.

Furthermore, even Mace doesn't dismiss the possibility of there being Dark Warriors:

Here it seems he distinctly uses dark warrior and Sith independently of one another. As in a Sith is a dark warrior, but a dark warrior is not necessarily a Sith.

Also, Qui Gon never brings up the color of Mauls lightsaber. More of my thoughts on the light saber situation read my post above about it.

So to me, at the end of AOTC. It seems that the Jedi still aren't making the connection. They're still holding onto somewhat of that same emotion that we see at the beginning of the movie where they just can't believe a Jedi (even an ex-Jedi) is capable of assassination, even though they know before the the attempt, that Dooku is behind a lot of the troubles plaguing the galaxy. It seems to me that they still carry that same mindset going into the end of the movie, that even though Dooku has fallen to the Dark Side, he hasn't gone so far as to join the Sith. After all, if Yoda thought he had joined the Sith, he would have said Dooku has joined the Sith, not Dooku has fallen to the Dark Side.

What Palpatine needs is the Clone Army, the Droid Army, and the War. Once again, he controls the Clone Army, the Jedi don't. He needs the droid army in order to scare the Senate into giving him Emergency Powers, and once he has those, he takes control of the Clone Army, and he needs the war to happen right away so there is less time for anyone to investigate, including the Jedi so as to make sure they are focused on the war, and not so much on the events leading up too. Whether the Jedi investigate or not, there is nothing leading to him, and he controls the Army. Even if the Jedi unearth evidence that Dooku ordered the Army himself, it won't matter because there is no way that Palpatine or the Senate will allow the Clone Army to not be used, as they need the army to fight the war, it wouldn't be the Jedi's call to stop using the Army. At best all the Jedi could do is sit by and watch, and we know they wouldn't do that. They would still fight in the war, but at the same time try to figure out what was going on. As is exactly what we see is happening in ROTS. The problem being they are always at least one step behind Palpatine.

 

Ok this we can get into

Ok first I will start with the "Dark Jedi". Now perhaps there is no such thing as a Dark Jedi in Lucas' mind. However, there has to be room for anyone, whether it be a Jedi, or just someone who is strong with the Force, to fall to the dark side. The Sith are an organization, they aren't the Dark Side themselves, the same as The Jedi are an organization, and they themselves aren't the Light Side. Anyone that uses the correct emotions with the Force can either use the Dark Side or vice versa. They don't have to be a Sith or a Jedi to use either side. Anakin wasn't a Jedi or a Sith in TPM, however, he was unconsciously using the Force to benefit.

Now, we know that prior to the events of TPM, the Jedi thought the Sith extinct. However, they upheld their code of only taking very young children to be trained. This code was in place, in part, to ensure that a young child's emotions could be shaped without the influence of the outside world. This shaping was needed so that the child could be taught at a young age to control emotions, and not to use bad emotions like anger, hate, etc when using the Force. Why would the Jedi want to make sure that the children don't use these dark emotions? Obviously because there is a chance they could fall to the Dark Side by using the wrong emotions. With the Jedi still believing that the Sith were extinct and that there was still a need for proper teaching, means that there is a possibility that a student, or Jedi, could fall to the Dark Side, just not be a Sith. Whether they were called Dark Jedi, or "those that shall not be named" doesn't really matter, it seems that the Jedi are aware of the possibility of some one falling to the Dark Side.

As far as why at the end of TPM the council changes their minds about Maul, I think it's because they needed to see for themselves. It seems to me that Qui Gon is a sort of trouble maker in the Jedi ranks. It seems he has had run-ins with difference of opinions and philosophies with the Council before as we see from some of Obi Wans comments in TPM. So once the Council inspects Mauls remains, they can see for themselves that this wasn't just a mere individual that was self taught how to use the Dark Side. I just think they don't believe Qui Gon at first, then add to that he claimed to have found Star Wars' equivalent of Jesus Christ. Just to use a real world example, if a priest, high up in the Roman Catholic Church, who has had problems with the hierarchy of the Church in the past, comes and starts telling them he fought the Devil in the middle of the dessert (literally, not metaphorically), I would bet he would get some strange looks as well. I see that as what has happened in Qui Gon's case. Add to that the Council's arrogance, that they just can't believe the Sith could have come back without them knowing, and you have a potent mixture that allows the Council not to believe until they have 1 dead Jedi Master at their feet.

Furthermore, even Mace doesn't dismiss the possibility of there being Dark Warriors:

Agreed . Given that there can only be two Sith, it seems clear that if a bunch of force users go to the dark side they are "dark Jedi" ipso facto" what the difference is becomes a question. On that note I have to ask what the logic of expelling someone from the order for misdemeanors is. _ lets cut loose a force sensitive we have trained with ideological differences to us. that's pretty stupid. Look at Anakin, if he admitted his marriage to Padme ( say if he did not have the visions and she had the twins) do they really expell him. That means a powerful Jedi ( or force user at least ) is about fully trained with no leash whatsoever. Not smart me thinks. And he is not a "Dark Jedi" unless their definition is anyone who disagrees with us ( possible!) Would they label him as Sith? ( what about Ventress in this case) or something else. What makes a Sith anyway, are there special teachings? ( Possibly not given Anakins conversion).

 

In the earlier post by Samuel Vimes in which he says Lucas has said that the term Dark Jedi is an oxymoron is understandable. This is speculation on my part, but, It sounds like what Lucas is getting at is that a Jedi is only a light side user, so when you attach dark to it, they are the opposite. Just like living dead. However, just because Lucas thinks the term Dark Jedi is an oxymoron it just doesn't automatically mean there is no such thing as Dark Warriors, or Dark Side Users, they just wouldn't be Sith because they aren't under the teachings of a Sith Lord. It would be no different than if someone self taught themselves how to use the Light Side of the Force and used it only for good, they couldn't call themselves a Jedi.


It's a good question about what becomes of a Jedi that's been expelled from the Order. Do the Jedi just wash their hands of all responsibility of letting loose a trained Force User on the galaxy? I would imagine the seriousness of their crimes would have to be addressed. If it was simply breaking the code and marrying, or like we saw in AOTC refusing to do your duty, well that might get you expelled. However, if it was something more serious, say using the Dark Side to slaughter an entire camp of beings, well that might land you in Jedi Prison?

 

Wasn't that what the Citadel in TCW was created for, before the Separatists conquered the planet and took it over?

 

Not sure, haven't got that far yet in TCW series...

It would make sense that there would be something that they needed to hold Jedi, there had to be a few bad apples over the course of a thousand years.

 

In order to avoid spoiling the episodes - I'll just give one quote:

"The Citadel wasn't designed to hold common criminals, it was created to hold Jedi if any of us lost our way."―Anakin Skywalker

 

Nice, a Jedi timeout!

 

The idea that Jedi who disagreed with the council get locked awayl, say by getting married, is pretty unsettlling.

 

With luck, "lost our way" is for more serious offences.

 

Right. More like what happens in the final few episodes of season five and that's a big spoiler for those who haven't seen it.

 

I think you might be incorrect about the guys with Dooku in AotC. The TF, the Techno Union and the Banking Clan are there as well. There are some unnamed fellows as well. Some if these guys are in RotS and called "The separatists leaders".
So I think the guys with Dooku are a good representative of the seps and what they want.
And most of them are totally fine with the plan Dooku presents, Make a big droid army, attack the Republic and overwhelm/kill the Jedi and make the Senate do what they want.
There is nothing in the film that suggest that Dooku or the other seps are interested in playing the "good guys". They figure "We have an army, you don't, do as we tell you." simple.

Except in the film, the loyalist committee are informed about Dooku's droid army and they conclude that the seps want war. And they don't fold or give in, they want the clone army.
So if they were instead informed of the droid army by Dooku making a threat, their reaction would be the same, they want the clone army used.

But look at what happens in the film, the loyalists are informed about the clone army, presumably Mace or Yoda informed them of Obi-Wans discovery. So they know about it. Then they are told, via Obi-Wans second report, that Dooku and the seps are building a huge droid army.
Their reaction is to push the senate into making use of the clone army. They don't fold or give in.
So, if they instead were informed of the clone army by Palpatine, having gotten a call from Kamino, and the droid army by Dooku making a threat. They would react the same way.
And as I have said, this way Palpatine controls everything and doesn't lave tons of things to chance.

I don't think the film supports this reasoning. Dooku presents his plan to the other seps. With their army, the biggest the galaxy, the Jedi WILL be overwhelmed and the Senate made to agree to any demands. It didn't sound to me that anyone there were against use of the army, no one objected to the plan.

Again nothing in the film suggest this. Dooku makes his plan very clear and gets little if any objections. Nute talks openly about his desire to see Padme dead and some of the other sep leader hear this and don't object. So I don't think the film pains them in a very good light.

How much time has passed between Obi-Wan's first and second report? A day or two, more?
The Jedi had time to send another to dig deeper to Kamino.
Also Obi-Wan had time to dig around while he was on Kamino. And he learned several things that makes the clone army seem shady. The template is involved in a plot to kill the most outspoken opponent to the army bill. The Jedi that is said to have ordered the army was apparently already dead when the order was placed. Etc. All of this are things Palpatine would not want to become known.
And again if Jango gets away, is killed, Obi-Wan is killed then the army gets revealed but no threat at all. Leaving plenty of time for investigations.
If instead Palpatine gets a call from the Kamino people, calls Dooku and tells him to get ready for stage two. Palpatine informs the loyalist about the army but within hours he is interrupted by Dooku making some threat. Then everything plays out as we saw in the film. Much simpler and far less risky and has fewer random variables.

[/QUOTE]

Well given the huge number of things that could go wrong and leave the Jedi with nothing, lead to the capture of Jango, Dooku and all the other number of ways the plan could fail, I don't agree.
One other thing about the seps, the TF are cowards and the other seps were expecting an easy victory. They assumed the Republic was weak and helpless and their new droid army would make short work of the Jedi and they get anything they want.
But instead they get handed a very big defeat and the republic is nowhere as helpless as they thought. This would make them doubt if they could actually win and they might switch sides or sue for peace.
Also consider this, they were planning to build a DS, that says to me very clearly that the seps aren't pretending to be good guys here. They want to scare or subdue the opponent by brute force.

Bye for now.
Old Stoneface

 

As Palpatine said in ROTJ "Everything that has transpired has done so according to my design." By that I never just viewed that as the plot of ROTJ, but everything dating back to the Naboo crisis and Beyond. I know its not canon but I still don't buy palpatine only being 90ish years old in ROTJ. I still like to think of him as a centuries year old ominous figure that is a pure embodiment of evil.

 

AOtC clearly has Dooku courting the Techno Union and the Banking Clan, asking for their aid and the support of their droid armies. Its at that point they agree to join. As a collective group they seem to be the Commerce guilds ( plural) refered to. They being the Separatist leaders in ROTS is consistent since they are "outed" in AOtC, forcing them into the war on the Separatist side. This I believe is part of the plan, it stops groups whose primary interest is financial from being able to back out.

The Actual Separatists, thousands of worlds have their own senate as seen in TCW "Heroes on both sides" and they are not unreasonable people by any means, It seems monumentally unlikely that they would sanction an attack before making the demands first.

Organa concludes the Commerce guilds are preparing for war. However he states outright that the debate is not over and the Senate will not sanction a Clone Army until the Separatists attack. Arguably Organa could still be opposed to the army at that point given the way he delivers his retort to the Gran ambassador.
So if the Separatists make demands with the threat of an army, the Senate may well fold and give concessions.

The Senate are kept of balance though. Organa states that the senate will NOT sanction the Clone army unless there is an attack ( which as I say I believe is unlikely). Thats why Palpatine manipulates Jar Jar into calling for emergency powers. With a more sedate pace with Palpatine mentioning the Clone army and Dooku making demands, then the Separatists become more of a known quantity, negotiation becomes infinitely more likely.

The Film seems to imply that the group Dooku is meeting are not members of the Separatists, As I said before he is courting them and they agree to join him at that point. Dooku does not say he intends to attack the Republic but as I said seems to be selling them on brinkmanship, using the threat of a superior force to gain the concession they want.
As I said above we see the Separatist Senate in TCW and while they are disenchanted with the Republic they do not seem like they would authorise a first strike as a first resort.

Again my contention is that Dooku is suggesting his plan not to the Separatist senate but to a group he is courting to his side. The Commerce guilds are not nice people and he is appealing to their greed, however Dooku is selling them the threat of the army
pointing out that the Republic will give them whatever they want. They do not actually sign up for a war. As corrupt moneygrabbers the guilds are not going to care about Padme.
The actual Separatists, as I said seen in TCW, are a much more reasonable group, and while they may well go to war eventually, there is no way they would sanction war as a first resort.

How much time has passed between Obi-Wan's first and second report? A day or two, more?
The Jedi had time to send another to dig deeper to Kamino.
Also Obi-Wan had time to dig around while he was on Kamino. And he learned several things that makes the clone army seem shady. The template is involved in a plot to kill the most outspoken opponent to the army bill. The Jedi that is said to have ordered the army was apparently already dead when the order was placed. Etc. All of this are things Palpatine would not want to become known.
And again if Jango gets away, is killed, Obi-Wan is killed then the army gets revealed but no threat at all. Leaving plenty of time for investigations.
If instead Palpatine gets a call from the Kamino people, calls Dooku and tells him to get ready for stage two. Palpatine informs the loyalist about the army but within hours he is interrupted by Dooku making some threat. Then everything plays out as we saw in the film. Much simpler and far less risky and has fewer random variables.[/QUOTE]

I don't think much time passes at all to be honest, the duration of a hyperspace journey basically. And Obi Wan is closer to Geonosis than Kamino is to Corusant. The fact that Jango the template is also trying to kill Padme is not that suspicious, given he is a bounty hunter. No reason to assume he is working for the same man ten years apart. The Jedi are also aware that Sifo Dyas had argued that a war was coming and action was needed ( TCW makes it clear that is why he was expelled from the council). So that would add up for them. None of that is a problem for Palpatine.

Palpatine can have reasonable faith that Obi Wan will suceed in some form or another, He is the only Jedi who has killed a Sith Lord in a thousand year ( well he's not, due to circumstance that leave me chuckling when he leaves Anakin alive, but you know what I mean).
Again I feel that Dooku making a threat and some demands will have the Senate scrambling to appease him. No army and no emergency powers ( remember emergency powers are essential if Palpatine is to remain in power).

The Political problems are far more likely to occur ( leastways if we take evidence from TCW) and really screw the pooch for Palpatine. His manipulation of the Jedi is by far safer IMO. I would point out that Jango being captured is not a problem, all he has to do is reveal he is working for Dooku who is building an army and results play out the same.
The Separatists, or rather the Commerce guilds are cowards but they expect not to have to use their army and believe the threat of it will get them what they want ( which makes more sense given their cowardice, particularly since Gunray has been down that hyperspace lane before.) The way things unfold they are forced into war and given no chance to back out.

As to suing for peace, those leaders have had their cards marked. In fact judging by TCW that does happen in some form since the TF and the Banking Clan denounce the Separatists and Gunray. However Dooku has his army by that point. I am not sure that everyone even knows about the Death Star plans. Certainly since the Separatists regard Dooku as a hero I doubt they know.


Clearly we are not swaying each other in our beliefs but its fun to bounce them back and forth, wondering what others feel about my political interpretation.

Take care

 

I rather doubt that Palpatine "knew" any of the Jedi would find Kamino. I suspect that he had hoped.

 

He knew, he purposefully brought Obi Wans name up in being Padme's security for the simple fact of leading Obi Wan to Kamino...

 

Or because he was hoping that the guy who sliced Maul in half would be killed in the crossfire...

 

Considering that he says everything is going as planned and Lucas says that Palpatine manipulated events so that the Jedi would find the army, is pretty telling.

 

What unforseen events?