main
side
curve
  1. In Memory of LAJ_FETT: Please share your remembrances and condolences HERE

Senate Pandemics in the Age of Globalization: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion: See OP Warning

Discussion in 'Community' started by Darth Punk , Jan 21, 2020.

  1. Thena

    Thena Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    May 10, 2001
    I think is fair to assume China's population will not be drastically reduced... but still sad to hear.
     
  2. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    I'm giving this virus a second look. First, I like it's ability to spread quickly. Second, though its kill rate seems low at first glance, it requires a lot of high end medical care to treat in a significant percentage of cases. A really large outbreak could easily overwhelm medical delivery services and drive up the mortality. There's some potential here. I'll reserve judgment though.
     
  3. LAJ_FETT

    LAJ_FETT Tech Admin (2007-2023) - She Held Us Together star 10 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    May 25, 2002
    Markets have all taken a dive today due to the virus. Dow is currently down around 450.
     
  4. Point Given

    Point Given Manager star 7 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Dec 12, 2006
    I didn't think it was going to be a giant outbreak, but this gives me concern

     
    vin likes this.
  5. LAJ_FETT

    LAJ_FETT Tech Admin (2007-2023) - She Held Us Together star 10 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    May 25, 2002
    When I heard on the news that people can be contagious before they know they have it I figured it would be bad. So far UK doesn't have any confirmed cases but I don't expect that to last.
     
  6. blackmyron

    blackmyron Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    Oct 29, 2005
    The deaths mainly appear to be those with preexisting respiratory problems and the elderly.
    While the death toll I imagine, will remain light, there has been concern that this might be the "black swan" that would trigger a worldwide economic downturn. Certainly China will suffer one.
     
  7. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    I don't think it would take much - global economy is a bit fragile. U.S. economic growth predicted to be lower this year than last, western Europe even more marginally growing if at all. subzero interest rates/European quantitative easing has basically done all it can do. Brexit may be "orderly" but still not a lot of fun.
     
    Juliet316 and blackmyron like this.
  8. blackmyron

    blackmyron Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    Oct 29, 2005
    More comparisons - SARS had an average incubation period of about 5 days. There were only 8100 cases total over the epidemic. We're well beyond that very early in this epidemic.
     
  9. Darth Punk

    Darth Punk JCC Manager star 7 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Nov 25, 2013
    By the time you’ve read this post, China will have built a new hospital.
     
  10. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    So it's not really clear that the virus spreads easily before people become symptomatic. But if it does then hang onto your ****ing hats.

    Illinois has something like 12,000 vacant hospital beds at any given time, but these are not distributed evenly across the state. I'd guess large urban hospitals tend to have less underutilization. The number of ICU beds is much smaller. Large city hospital capacity would be swamped quickly in a pandemic.
     
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2020
  11. Darth Guy

    Darth Guy Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Aug 16, 2002
    At this point there doesn't seem to be any indication that this is more dangerous than seasonal influenza... which kills 400,000 people a year.
     
  12. soitscometothis

    soitscometothis Chosen One star 6

    Registered:
    Jul 11, 2003
    I don't think 400,000 a year is going to do it for Ken.

    @Rylo Ken how many monkeys out of twelve would you give this virus at the moment?
     
  13. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    I'd give it 2 monkeys

    In the U.S. hospitalization rates for flu are less than 2%. And a bit less than 10% of flu hospitalizations end in death. If coronavirus is leading to about 20-30% hospitalization, that's significantly worse.
     
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2020
  14. Juliet316

    Juliet316 Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Apr 27, 2005
    Odd, considering speculation is that this virus originated from a snake.
     
  15. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    My son got bitten by one monkey. That was enough to send him on a multi-country quest for rabies vaccinations.
     
    Juliet316 likes this.
  16. Point Given

    Point Given Manager star 7 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Dec 12, 2006
    It comes down to there not being vaccines for coronaviruses, unlike the seasonal flu.
     
    jcgoble3 likes this.
  17. Darth Guy

    Darth Guy Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Aug 16, 2002
    The hospitalization rate is probably inflated a lot. Symptoms may be typically mild and cold-like so people aren't reporting it.
     
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2020
  18. Thena

    Thena Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    May 10, 2001
    What did they do to the monkey? [face_thinking]
     
  19. soitscometothis

    soitscometothis Chosen One star 6

    Registered:
    Jul 11, 2003
    A Møøse once bit my sister...
     
  20. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    Mind you, moose bites can be pretty nasty, but the monkey continues to bite tourists on a daily basis as far as I know.
     
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2020
  21. Darth Punk

    Darth Punk JCC Manager star 7 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Nov 25, 2013
    I got mugged by a monkey, at a temple in Phnom Penh. Years later I read that said monkey was shot by Cambodian police.

    SOURCE LOL @ GANGSTER MONKEY: http://ki-media.blogspot.com/2008/05/gangster-monkey-shot-dead-at-cambodian.html?m=1
     
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2020
    soitscometothis, Ramza and Rylo Ken like this.
  22. Ramza

    Ramza Administrator Emeritus star 9 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Jul 13, 2008
    You laugh, but that monkey was in deep. He got his start in the South Vietnamese underground and, like most Triads at the time, fled when the VC swept into the region. In 1985 Jojo the Monkey, or "Joey Bananas" as his associates called him, made 426, and was given control of most of the street gang activity in the Phnom Penh region. By 1993 Joey had consolidated enough power to effectively control most of the organized crime activity in southern Cambodia, he was known as "the Lesser 438" to most gangsters in the know. This made the more traditional, human power base of the organized crime ring nervous, particularly as the increased emphasis on fruit acquisition threatened to derail the more traditionally lucrative drug trade. This set off the decade-long "Bananas and Blow" war that shook the Cambodian underworld to its very core. Over the course of this conflict Joey was effectively ousted from power and was forced to resort back to a life of petty theft. He died, ignominiously, in a routine police operation, allegedly while resisting arrested for assault, though recent evidence suggests one or more of the officers involved may have received payment from a particularly aggressive branch of the flying lemur clan.
     
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2020
  23. Darth Punk

    Darth Punk JCC Manager star 7 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Nov 25, 2013
    Best backstory ever
     
    Juliet316 likes this.
  24. Darth Downunder

    Darth Downunder Chosen One star 6

    Registered:
    Aug 5, 2001
    Sure like any big overhyped blockbuster it’s burst out of the gate. You’ll see, its returns will be very front ended. Once people work it out it’ll fizzle away & be yesterday’s news in no time.
     
  25. DarthTalgus

    DarthTalgus Force Ghost star 4

    Registered:
    Sep 3, 2012

    This thread is interesting, seems like most of the infected outside of China are in a stable condition some of them are even allowed to stay at home.
     
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2020