Rogue One Rogue One Box Office Discussion

I believe its time for Disney to put a trailer for episode 8, i think it can boost RO a bit

 

Overall it is a great result but to be honest the international numbers are a bit weak.. Not gonna lie I was expecting more from international markets...

 

Nah.. I hope they release it at Celebration...

 

Speak to our international friends about that! Lol.

Funny thought because it may seem like I'm joking but actually... not. If we had 500,000 die hard fans like me in the Star Wars fan base in North America, heck maybe even half that number, a Star Wars movie wouldn't leave theaters until the next movie arrived. Fans like me would just keep seeing it 1-3 times a week and it would never drop below $5 million per week, so it wouldn't ever leave theaters... not until another SW movie took the attention and die hard fans away.

 

It would help if Disney did a strong marketing campaign like they do for Marvel movies.

Heck, even xXx 3 had posters on the sides of buses, on the street outdoors, etc.

At least 60% of the audience just stumbled upon R1 in the cinemas and said "oh, a new Star Wars movie? Cool."

 

Yeah it will be at Celebration. KK said herself that the trailer will be in the spring of this year so it aligns well especially since it seems like Rogue One will come out on home video in late April. So while the trailer might not boost Rogue One at the theater, it could boost home video of Rogue One a touch.

I am curious to see the box office for yesterday since there is good chance it might been below a million for the day. If so, it would been the first non-million dollar day for Rogue One. If it stops at 34 days then it had a better streak then Civil War (32 days) but not Finding Dory (42 days). Not that it ultimately matters since in the end it's all about the final box office receipt but just something interesting to keep tabs on.

It's going to be a interesting weekend at the box office as M. Night Shyamalan finally seems to gotten his career by on track as Split is tracking for a $20+ million weekend with good reviews (second movie in a row now that M. Night got pretty good reviews after a string of I don't know how many movies that were just trashed into the ground and then lite on fire!) along with another xXx movie. Rogue One is poised to be around $8 million so were looking at around $512 million domestically and I am sure it will break a billion worldwide by the end of business Sunday (if it already hasn't). So the only question comes where does it land as it makes it's final stop. I am thinking $525ish million domestically and around $1.075ish billion worldwide giving it a #1/2 ranking at the box office with a $500/1 billion split. Not bad for a "massive failure" LOL!

Why? It's going to wind up around #7 at the box office internationally and have about a 50/50 split which not too far off The Force Awakens split 45/55%. A tad domestic driven but not much. *listen to me and hear me later* The Force Awakens remember was a global phenomenon that will not be seen for quite some time. Nothing is going to come near that, not even Episode VIII so we just need to stop comparing. It's also design for certain audiences so while it plays beyond reason in North America, it's just run of the mill in China for example. Disney knows this and hence why they designed their marketing for Rogue One to be bigger in certain markets more then others just like any movie is marketed.

The business for Rogue One as been great both in North America and abroad. It's a spinoff movie that is a prequel to Episode IV that has no characters that anyone really knows in it outside of a couple cameos and it's entire being was of a brooding, dark and ominous movie that wasn't "for everyone" even among Star Wars fans. And yet it still did a $500/1 billion plus split. The Disney executives must be pinching themselves especially after they saw what happened to the two main WB movies this year. While the executives at Disney are deciding how they want to expand their universe into TV and other avenues, WB is trying to salvage it's biggest potential property as they seem to have an unabashed disaster on their hands.

 

I'll keep posting it every day if I have to lol Rogue One isn't making $525M. Not one chance in a million. It'll clear $535M and probably $540M. Lots of weeks left here and movies cling on making millions well after the headlines end. We aren't there. Rogue One was third Wednesday let's not pretend it's about to be pulled please It's only $20M from $525M lol

 

The only thing is that the holds have to be excellent to get up to $540 million. I'd say there's a good chance but I don't think it's 100% certain.

 

Disney might put a trailer before Beauty and the Beast

 

Well, R1 has done the best it could have an there is nothing about it to say that it underperformed. I think that the style, type, and direction of the movie is a success in and of itself. Domestically, it did the impossible. This movie surpassed many movies that were very good but did not make the kind of money that R1 made. Only 6 movies are actually over R1, and they are all very good. So in that respect, any comments about underperforming in the domestic box office is outright wrong and leads to credence that some were hoping that this movie made bigger numbers, and if it didn't , it would be considered a failure. The more money that it can make domestically the better and if we pass TDK, even more. R1 is a very good movie and a star wars movie at that.

Internationally, we, yeah those that live internationally will say that there country was great. I keep thinking of Starkillerz's comments, but the reality is that even those countries that spent a lot of money for TFA, did not do so with R1 for whatever reason. I'll let you guys come up with a possible reason on that. The goal should be for obvious reasons getting to a billion dollars unadjusted in a first run, and then hopefully squeak enough to become the second highest grossing movie of 2016 worldwide. We can all live with that and no matter what happens in the future. no known can say that R1 was a bust.

Speculating about the box office take of Episode 8 is not good thing at this time. Too many factors are coming into place. Domestically, it will be very good and even on that I won't elaborate. Internationally, will be different matter, and if any of you saw the inauguration of our new president of the US, everything is about making "America Great", and everything is about putting the country first. That, may rub some countries the wrong way and have an affect on American products. Maybe it'll make things better, who knows, but we have to wait and see. me personally, I love the international box office because when a movie doesn't do good here, the over seas market tends to save them and that's great. So we will see what the future holds.

 

Honestly I do tend to agree with Rylo Ken that nothing is going to get Episode 8 hyped the way TFA was, I think the opening will be big but to get close to TFA's takings it will need to have really excellent WOM feeding into its legs.

Personally I tend to take the view that Disney did not expect SW to take off as much as it has, hiring Abrams for me was a move that suggested they thought the franchise was in poor health akin to Trek but really I don't think that's true at all. For one thing I don't think Trek was ever as big as SW but for another the issue it had was much more simple viewer fatigue after over a decade of multiple series and several films of decreasing quality.

As it is I'd imagine a significant chunk of that 4 billion has already been paid off.

 

Dipped below the magic $1m today. :-(. Only just though at 0.94.

 

They really don't, though. That's just what happens to movies as they get to the end of their runs. I'll give you another example. BVS had a $9M weekend, that was the worst performing bomb after OW imaginable. After the $9M weekend it still made almost $20M more. You're saying after a $13M+ weekend for Rogue One, and a couple of weekdays, it only makes $20M more? I mean get real LOL. There is NO chance of that happening. $540M is far from a guarantee right now, but it's very likely. The current tracking is $540-545M based on comps, and it could come in at $535M, but $525M is not happening. It would be much, much more likely to hit $550M than that.

 

It's at 505 mill right now, It will likely be about 515 by Monday. It might take in another 10 million for the week after that so will be about 525 or by the end of the month. I imagine it will stay in theaters through the majority of February and will likely get another 20 million during that time. So 540-550 is likely at this point. They will try to squeeze every ounce of theater money that they can get out of this film before they start focusing on dvd sales.

 

moreorless12

And nothing was more hyped then TPM but that didn't close to touching Titanic for biggest box office all time. TFA was a once in a generational film and nothing is going near it realistically. It is essentially impossible for Episode VIII to touch TFA no matter how much Disney hypes it. It's like asking Better Call Saul to be better then Breaking Bad. Even though Better Call Saul is a fabulous show, it isn't as good as Breaking Bad which many will argue was the best TV drama in history. To me we are still figuring out the "norms" for Disney led Star Wars movies. With only one episode and one spinoff out, it's very difficult to perdict the norms long term. We will know in a little year and a half from now when Han Solo comes out.

smudger9

Like I said in my earlier post, not suprising at all. It's at $505 million domestic and with a $8 million weekend projection, we are looking at $513 million by the end of the business day Sunday. $550 million is still in play along with the #6 slot all-time domestically but it's not vital in my opinion. It be a nice cherry but if it doesn't make it, it's not a huge benchmark. In terms of huge benchmarks, Rogue One as already passed up the ones it will. I guess you can say by being #6 all time it's in the mid-single digits instead of high single digits but that is about it LOL!

vong333

I think of that stuff in terms of your last paragraph are overblown by the media. Not going to get into a political debate at all since this is never the time or place to have it except if the film is good, audiences will go see it here..there...anywhere. Nothing less, nothing more. Everything else is nothing but hyperbole which thanks to social media as become the soup du jour of the 21st century.

BTW, everyone is bashing on China here about the Rogue One box office or lack of one there. Funny but here is an article saying how well it's doing there:

http://www.latimes.com/business/hollywood/la-fi-ct-china-box-office-20170117-story.html

Guess it's all perspective and expectations LOL!

 

to be honest with you all I really don't care what these films make at the box office just as long as I love each one of them and so far I have!

 

Rogue One's current China total is $58.2 million (it made about $6 million during the week). It will probably finish with $65 -70 million, about half the gross of The Force Awakens ($125 million). That's not disastrous but it is disappointing when you consider it had two major Chinese film stars, and when you compare it to the performance of inferior product (like the execrable Fantastic Beasts - first film I've walked out off in a long while - which made $85 million). But it would be a mistake for Disney to abandon Asia. Believe me, there are Star Wars fanatics there that would rival the ones anywhere else. I just think more effort needs to made to promote the films to rope in the mainstream. I do agree that Rogue One was not as well promoted as The Force Awakens.

 

*Resists urge to post an "America first" comment made during a certain speech today*

 

A lot of people in Asia simply didn't grow up with Star Wars like people elsewhere in the world did. The fact that most of us grew up where you could just say the name Darth Vader or Luke Skywalker and everyone knows exactly who and what you are talking about makes a big difference nowadays when they are trying to sell these films.

Irregardless when your films are easily cracking the top 10 domestically and making a billion or more world wide it doesn't really matter how popular the film is in Asia.

 

Never thought I'd see the day when an American President uses the phrase of a hardcore anti-Semite on inauguration day.

 

Most largish Aussie cinemas only have four sessions a day going at the moment, I suspect it will finish up at the end of January when school holidays finish.

 

Yeah, I would like to have seen it do better in the international market, a bit disappointed. But that doesn't change the fact that the numbers it did are nothing but a positive sign in every way.

In truth, the story really isn't put together for mass appeal given it isn't even a family movie. It doesn't have a gimmick going for it that other really huge movies like Titanic ( world's #1 tear-jerking chick flick) or Avatar (first big, massive visual 3D experience) had. If I had initially known that everyone dies, my predictions would have been lesser. I like the way the story unfolded, but I don't think it got as many repeat viewing because of it. I was surprised that even Jyn dies, but it bodes well for Disney being a little more risky and willing to go out on a limb with SW movies, which couldn't be any more positive from my personal perspective in movie taste (and future desire for what I want in SW movies).

I think the Han Solo movie has the potential to be bigger commercially if well done.

 

Call it months ago. That hand was so overplayed and continues to do it. Having a more diverse cast does not equate more diverse audience. China is just a perfect example. Furious 7 and Transformers 4 are in the Top 5 there all time and they did not add two major Chinese film stars in order to help their movies. It's just those movies play better to the China audience then SW. And there is nothing wrong with that either. I said it before and I will say it again. You should make the cast more diverse because it enriches the universe and tells a better story, not because you want to sell more tickets.

And good for Split, it had an awesome Friday and looks to be heading towards a $30+ million opening weekend:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

Rogue One in sixth but should climb in around $8 million for the weekend or so.

 

Well, it don't matter. R1 did well and I liked it a lot. My biggest fear was that the movie wouldn't be that good, and that thank the heavens has proven me wrong. I can look at this movie and then A New Hope, back to back and see a good connection, and while R1 doesn't cover the Luke and force journey aspect, it covers the Death Star, the plans, the sacrifice, the first rebel fleet victory and stuff like that from the crawl. Well done Disney.

I'm expecting that tomorrow we will know if R1 finally crossed the billion marker. An exceptional feat on a strong dollar.

 

I agree that It would have been nice if Internationally it did better over all but the numbers over all when you bring domestic into the mix are encouraging! I think the fact that 1. all the main cast characters die off. and 2. This film was really made for the die hard fanboys and we all had to explain to non die hard friends and family what it was all about before we saw the film like a million times. I would say it was never going to break any major records and even Disney new that. Episode 8 should do much better at the box office, more like what TFA did...

If It doesn't I will be surprised.