Solo Solo box-office discussion

Yes and the split seems to be closer to 50/50 these days.

R1 did $70m in China too. But there's diminishing returns there. So it could he lower than TLJ numbers.

So if we think $400m Domestic we're looking at $800m then. $500m gets us the $1b.



Looks like a big ask.

 

It's still early in the game. We will see.

 

I remember that I doubted Rogue One would be a big money maker. It was attractive to the Nerds (said lovingly), but the general audience wouldn't be interested. The general crowd wanted to see Rey-Finn-Kylo and Rogue was an unwanted distraction.

But it did huge business.

So let's see....

 

The one thing I can't decide is if a none Harrison Ford Han Solo will be a harder sell to the fans or to the general audience.

 

Well i think that the point. A solo movie with harisson would have made a billion, without him it will be hard

 

I'd be willing to bet that a good portion of the general audience will go into Solo assuming that Harrison will be in it. And whatever previews they've seen without him are assumed to just be part of the movie like a flashback or something. I think the confusion will come once they've seen it and start to ask where the hell Harrison Ford was in a movie about Han Solo. Much like the confusion that came about among those thinking that Rogue One was a continuation of The Force Awakens. Just not thinking at all or being aware of anything other than it just being the next Star Wars movie to come out.

 

Oh it absolutely will be BUT that was never the intent and everyone knows that. A true Catch-22 situation. The only way they could ever have done that is if they made the movie between 1977 and 1983 as a true side-spin off movie (like the current Marvel universe). Or even a short time after ROTJ and make Harrison up to look younger (but not horribly so since there could be less than 10 year difference).

If TFA or TLJ somehow threw in something about Han and his younger life (maybe something found on the Falcon that points to his mysterious younger life....I guess the dice may have been intended to do that???) then there would be a feeling of "oh-I hope they can tell that story someday.

Solo will still do big business but each person's definition of "big" may vary and some definitions may be challenged.

 

I would imagine the general audience.

 

I think the GA would be a little more accepting of a "young Han Solo" that is played by someone other than Harrison because they aren't as invested in it being Harrison as the hardcore fans. We were talking about this in the other thread- did River Phoenix and Sean Patrick Flanery get this much flack for not being Harrison Ford in Young Indiana Jones by that fandom?

Most people I see on social media are saying they refuse to see the film because it isn't Harrison Ford. Not sure how a 75 year old man is going to play an 18-24 year old version of the character.

 

https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-tracking-solo-star-wars-story/
prediction 150/390 million

 

I never understood their methodology, if they even eve had one. They have DP2 at $100 m OW and $242 m domestic.

I saw $150/$390 for Solo is EXCESSIVELY high.

 

I wouldn’t be surprised with that opening.

 

Deadpool 2 has had some bad buzz building for some time. Reshoots were recently filmed in Vancouver, for a movie that comes out in a few weeks.

 

Huh? Deadpool 2's test score was 98.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/deadpool-2-outscores-original-test-screenings-1095838

That is higher then the original scored.

Meanwhile RPO did $13 million during previews. It could break $50 million which I gave a few bucks to since I saw it last nite. Really like it a lot though it is much different then the book.

 

Just saw Ready Player One. And enjoyed the hell out of it. Best big Hollywood film of the year for me so far.
Spielberg still got it. His action scenes were second to none in this one. Its only going to do half the opening weekend of a Marvel spinn off though. Thats a shame. But to reach the large general audience now, you need to offer a very simplied story narrative, and be part of a well known franchise. Its hard to get through otherwise. Still hope RPO can crawl to $ 200 mill pluss. Overseas it might do good business in the Asian market as well.

No Solo trailers before the film. Only Marvel x 3.

 

I wouldn't trust that Hollywood Reporter story as @ManaByte has heard that that story is Fox doing PR Panic Mode spin. I would tell u why, but, if Manabyte wants to, he could tell you as he knows more than I do.

So, I feel Solo has a chance to surprise and open with that much.

 

True or not, Deadpool 2 isn't projected to make as much as the first one.

 

I would guess that Deadpool 1 did much better than its projections. Lots of word of mouth and review publicity.

Now DP2 has a whole lot of expectation on it. It'll get slaughtered online if it is the usual sequel "Still pretty funny, but we've seen it before."

I think it is a film in danger of very fickle, opionated fans.

 

I have to add to this. I was at Walmart the other day and in the toy isle, the Star Wars toys were empty. They sell, ant the blue rays. Yeah, they were selling like hot cakes. Star Wars is up there. I also just saw ready player one and fell in love with the movie. It was good. Both pacific rim and ready player one surprised me. Both were very good movies.

 

Deadpool had surprise effect, deadpool 2 won't have. I think Dp2 will do same number as logan.

 

That would be very surprising. Not only should Deadpool 2 start much higher than Logan did, but it should also have a much higher second weekend due to Memorial Day. I'd say there is a better chance of DP2 having beaten Logan by the end of the second (4-day) weekend than there is of ending with the same total. It took the first one ten days to reach ~237m, which is over ten million more than Logan's total.

The nature of a sequel that follows a style that may not run as well the second time around certainly allows for the possibility of a drop, but I wouldn't expect it to be that big if it happens. Seeing how popular the first one was, the opening should be big.

 

What I'm hearing from a friend of mine is the movie is gonna stress out 'core' fans with some of the decisions that have been made. Though I can't see that affecting BO in particular. Things that will affect BO - the lack of Ford as Han, the fact it's not a man saga movie (though that didn't particularly harm RO, though maybe partly cause people knew Vader was in the movie). Anyway she told me the following things are in the movie (her wording, not mine) -

MOD EDIT: IF YOU CAN'T PROVE IT DON'T POST IT

I trust my friend on this due to the fact she would never wind me up about Star Wars, and her job brings her into several situations where she could learn details of this nature (she won't have seen any footage, that's for definite).

 

Holy crap. That was.....spoilerish, if true. Did i just read that? I did.

Not what i did expect Emila Clarke to be. Either way, the film is going to divide Star Wars fans. Every film does.

 

Lol wtf is that post i stopped reading but its hard to no go back. could you pls delete it

 

Unfortunately we don't know enough about this movie to discount it.

Only thing that raised my eyebrow is Han escaping in the pod... A complicated logic would indicate that he probably uses the miniship instead.